Greenish shoots in East Asia. Brad Setser, Follow the Money.
Stressing the positive. Paul Krugman, NYT.
The spring of the zombies. Joseph Stiglitz, Project Syndicate.
excerpt:
The bottom may be near - perhaps by the end of the year. But that does not mean that the global economy is set for a robust recovery any time soon.... This downturn is complex: an economic crisis combined with a financial crisis. Before its onset, America's debt-ridden consumers were the engine of global growth. That model has broken down, and will not be replaced soon. For, even if America's banks were healthy, household wealth has been devastated, and Americans were borrowing and consuming on the assumption that house prices would rise forever.
Fannie Mae asks for another $19 billion. Calculated Risk.
Export versus domestic demand - the argument rages. Michael Pettis, China Financial Markets.
excerpt:
Increasingly I am hearing people here say that, although few expect a “collapse”, whatever that means, China is facing its own “lost decade” of sub-par economic growth and a very difficult transition. As regular readers know, I am very inclined to agree.... the surge in lending actually makes China’s transition more difficult in the medium term because it will act to constrain future consumption in China.
Power generation declines; China's recovery is lagging. China Stakes.
China consumer spending vs savings. Barry Ritholtz, The Big Picture.
From recession to recovery: a long and hard road. Prakash Kannan, Alasdair Scott and Marco Terrones, voxeu.
What keeps me awake at night: economy edition. Roger Ehrenberg, Information Arbitrage.
Global crisis 'vastly worse' than 1930s, Taleb says. Bloomberg.
Are U.S. investors pathologically optimistic? Frank Veneroso, via Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed.
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