Recant

upon further consideration, I recant
the trend channel that I referred to on the 19th is, perhaps, spurious, or coincidental, or meaningless, or all of the above; basically, it was bad analysis... looking for patterns to confirm one's views... like looking at those Rorschach inkblots and seeing pink elephants or something

so, do I think the yield on the Canada 10year trends lower? yes

but do I think that over the next 4 1/2 months it will stay in the same channel as in the last 4 1/2 mths? uhhh, no

granted, I gave some caveats in that post... about not being a slave to the channel, but that it nonetheless painted a nice picture that basically conformed with my forecast blah blah blah

whatever; I regret now ever doing anything more than simply saying, hey, look, ain't it kinda neat that this little channel has developed

as for forward-looking, I might as well have projected that channel forward til it hit zero; obviously its gonna break at some point (pre-0); could just as well be next month as next year

SO... disregard that April-to-August CAN10 trend channel

BUT... don't disregard the long-term trend channel for the U.S. 10-year that I noted in my post on the 16th; that one, I think, given its long-term history, remains legit; only problem is, any yield on US10s of between 1.5 and 4.25 at year-end would remain in that channel; bulls OR bears can make hay with that one

in any case, the long-term downward trend in REAL 10-year yields remains intact, which is good news for nominal yields if CPI keeps falling (or even if CPI just doesn't rise); and the correlation between 10yr yields and 4-yr average GDP growth also remains strong, and the continuing downward slope of smoothed GDP growth also bodes well for bonds