March 8

Un-American Revolutions. Niall Ferguson, Newsweek.




Are Middle East Revolutions a Prelude to Armageddon?

America had best prepare itself for a long haul and reorganization of our hold in the oil-producing world. The Middle East and North Africa revolution has only begun.

Oman riots increase fears for Saudi Arabia. UPI.

Arab unrest and the 'End of the Oil Age'. UPI.

Libyan Ides of March? UPI.

Both the Spanish civil war (1 million killed 1936-39), which divided both Europe and America between pro-Nazi and pro-Soviet camps, and the 1992-95 Bosnia war that killed about 100,000 civilians and displaced 2.2 million, found the United States on the side of the Muslims. Both are models of how quickly such conflicts can escalate into global crises.

Bahrain key to Persian Gulf power struggle. UPI.
Bahrain and the battle between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Stratfor.

Iran has another, more challenging strategic interest, one it has had since Biblical times. That goal is to be the dominant power in the Persian Gulf.


For Tehran, this is both reasonable and attainable. Iran has the largest and most ideologically committed military of any state in the Persian Gulf region. Despite the apparent technological sophistication of the Gulf states’ militaries, they are shells. Iran’s is not. In addition to being the leading military force in the Persian Gulf, Iran has 75 million people, giving it a larger population than all other Persian Gulf states combined.

Outside powers have prevented Iran from dominating the region since the fall of the Ottoman Empire, first the United Kingdom and then the United States, which consistently have supported the countries of the Arabian Peninsula. It was in the outsiders’ interests to maintain a divided region, and therefore in their interests to block the most powerful country in the region from dominating even when the outsiders were allied with Iran.

With the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq, this strategy is being abandoned in the sense that the force needed to contain Iran is being withdrawn. The forces left in Kuwait and U.S air power might be able to limit a conventional Iranian attack. Still, the U.S. withdrawal leaves the Iranians with the most powerful military force in the region regardless of whether they acquire nuclear weapons. Indeed, in my view, the nuclear issue largely has been an Iranian diversion from the more fundamental issue, namely, the regional balance after the departure of the United States. By focusing on the nuclear issue, these other issues appeared subsidiary and have been largely ignored.