1st and 2nd derivatives

This is a work in progress. I need to flesh this out some more, particularly with harder data on some of these points, and by adding more Canadian and international data as opposed to primarily U.S., and also need to juggle some points around (maybe new categories, like Terrible, but not worsening). But as a start at trying to identify which "green shoots" are really green and which are just not dying as fast:

Declining / Deteriorating
Industrial production --- down 13.3% since Dec. 2007
Capacity utilization --- under 70% (growing slack à no reason for capex)
Headline CPI --- down 0.4% YoY
Retail sales --- down 10.7% YoY, 11.6% real
Construction spending --- residential down 59% from peak; non-res down 9%
International trade
Foreclosures
Mortgage delinquencies --- OCC: under 90% of mortgages performing
House prices --- C-S down 30% from peak
Vacancies – personal --- houses; apartments 7.2%
Vacancies – commercial --- offices 15.2% (from 12.5%); malls 9.5% (from 7.7%)
Rents --- office rents in SF -24% YoY, Manhattan -6%
Initial Jobless Claims --- 4wk-M.A. 650+k
Continuing Jobless Claims --- 6+ mil
Payrolls --- -3.7% YoY; 5mil jobs lost (SA), 7mil (NSA) since peak
Unemployment --- U-3 8.5%; U-6 15.6% (both SA; 9.0% and 16.2% NSA)
Hours worked --- avg. wkly hrs 33.2; aggregate hrs worked index down 7% YoY
Credit card charge-offs
Bankruptcies
Mortgage Equity W/Ds
Federal tax receipts --- down 28% YoY (individuals down 27%, corporate -90%)

State and local tax receipts
Hotel occupancy rates --- 56% occupancy, down 10% from year ago
Vehicle miles driven --- down 3.6% YoY (biggest drop ever)
Leading economic indicators
NFIB small business optimism index

Commercial real estate
Credit writedowns / loan losses --- IMF forecasts up to $4T; Mayo, Whitney, Roubini

Declining / Deteriorating, but not as fast
Core CPI --- up 1.8% YoY
Home builders index --- still very low, but not at record low
Housing starts and building permits

ISM

Regional manufacturing surveys

L.A. port traffic
Baltic Dry index
VIX
Auto sales
New home sales
Existing home sales
Credit availability
Architecture billings index --- still very low, but not at record low
Restaurant performance index --- still very low, but not at record low

Not Declining / Deteriorating
Inflation expectations
TED spread
Corporate credit spreads
Pending home sales
Consumer confidence
Housing inventories

Improving Significantly
China lending and money supply
China auto sales
Mortgage rates