Data - April 29

U.S.

FOMC statement at 2:15

I agree with the guy from Across the Curve:

I think that the Committee will genuflect in the direction of the signs of stability which have crept into the economy. In that regard the statement should be more upbeat than the previous one. I think that the improvement in the economy and in the financial markets precludes any extension (increase) in QE). I see no reason for the group to fire new bullets when conditions (albeit slightly) are improving. I think that they will reiterate that the funds rate will remain low for an extended period and that the risks of weakness outweigh chances of growth. They will also note their collective concern about too low a rate of inflation.

that said, if the Fed doesn't upsize their Treasury-buying program, we could see 10s push quickly through that 3% level its been bumping off

but first we got the BEA's advance estimate of Q1 GDP; the survey hoped it would rebound to about -4.7% at an annualized rate, from -6.3% in Q4, on positive personal consumption growth; the latter was correct, as personal consumption was up a more-than-expected 2.2%, but, nonetheless, GDP contracted at a 6.1% annualized rate, and is now down 2.6% over the last year, which matches the 1982 low, but is otherwise the worst YoY rate since 1958; nominal GDP fell 3.5% annualized in Q1 and is down 0.5% YoY, the first time its been negative since 1958;

PCE was up 0.3% in the quarter (despite spending on energy falling nearly 16%), contributing +1.5% to total GDP; but private domestic investment was down 17% in Q1, so its contribution to the change in total GDP was -8.8%; residential investment, non-res investment and inventories were all drags; for residential investment, it was the 13th straight quarter as a drag on growth, and had been anticipated to be less so over time, but its 12.4% fall in Q1 contributed negative 1.4% to the total GDP figure, which is as bad as in any of the previous 12 quarters; inventory adjustments contributed -2.8% to the headline GDP figure, while non-residential investment dragged 4.7%; net exports added nearly 2% to growth, as exports were down 11%, but imports were down 17%; government spending detracted modestly from growth, both at the federal and state/local level

keep in mind that these are the "advance" estimates; the "preliminary" estimates, based on more comprehensive data, will be released May 29

INTERNATIONAL

Eurozone M3 money supply fell in March, is basically flat over the last five months, and is down to a YoY growth rate of 5.1%, down from as much as 12.5% in 2007, though not yet to past recession lows of under 4%

Eurozone consumer confidence improved a bit to -31 (from -34)