Data Watch - April 15

CANADA
- first and foremost, NHL playoffs start this evening
- new vehicle sales is the only data released today, and it dropped 2.2% as expected, while January's advance was pared back by 1%; now down 24% YoY

US
- lots of American data released today, headlined by CPI
- headline and core CPI were each expected to rise 0.1% MoM for March, but core came in higher, at 0.2%, while headline came in lower, at -0.1%; that resulted in YoY rates of inflation of 1.8% ex-food and energy and -0.4% total (it fell as low as 0.0% YoY in January but climbed back to +0.2% in February; this is the first its been negative since 1955)
- Empire Manufacturing was expected to improve a bit from March's low of -38 to -35, but did much better than that, rebounding to -15, the best its been since September
- industrial production, which fell 1.5% in February, fell more than the expected 0.9% in March, declining another 1.5%; it is now down 12.8% YoY, resulting in capacity utilization falling to 69.3% (below 70% for the first time since the series started in 1967)
- the NAHB housing market index, which hit a low of 8 in January and climbed a notch to 9 in February is expected to regain one more point to 10
- Fed Beige Book will be released at 2pm

UPDATE: NAHB exceeded expectations, climbing a whopping 5 pts to 14 (which would still be the lowest data-point in the series history back to 1985 other than the recent November to March period); Beige Book was reasonably mixed



INTERNATIONAL
- ECB member Axel Weber says he's adamantly opposed to reducing the main refinancing rate below 1%, and says he sees no risk of deflation
- German wholesale prices fell more than expected in March, now down 8% YoY (but Weber sees no risk of deflation)
- UK house prices are now down 12% YoY (but Weber sees no risk of deflation)
- Japanese industrial production was down 9.4% in February and 38.4% over the last year
- Toyko condo sales are down 46% YoY

OTHER
- TED spread still hanging steady around 0.95, a level its hovered around for 3 months
- the VIX has been below 40 for 4 straight days now, which hasn't happened since September
- the Baltic Dry Index, which had fallen for 21 straight days, has now risen modestly the last 2