Extreme Deviations & Eventual Outcomes.
Way, way more cool charts at: SocGen Makes A Striking Discovery: For More Than Half The Market, It Already Feels Like A Recession.
Baltic Dry Continues Epic Plunge As IMF Slashes Global GDP Forecast.
US Freight Shipments Plunge at Fastest Rate since 2009, Hit 2011 Level.
A Recession is More Likely than You Think.
In fact, the following five long-running standard recession signals triggered in 2019:
• Yield curve inversion, signaled 3/27/2019, data back to January 1971.
• Conference Board Jobs Gap YoY growth negative, signaled 11/30/2019, data back to February 1968.
• Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Peak, signaled 7/31/2019 (tentative because it could make a higher peak), data back to
January 1959.
• Initial Jobless Claims Trough, signaled 4/12/2019 (tentative because it could make a lower trough), data back to January 1967.
• ISM Manufacturing first below 50 (contraction), signaled 8/31/2019, data back to January 1948.
There are a few conclusions to this.
• First, five recession indicators have signaled.
• Second, there is nothing unusual in the timing that the recession hasn’t started yet.
• Third, no matter which of the five indicators you use, a recession will likely begin in 2020 and the average center-point of the indicators is in
March, just a little over two months away.
US Leading Economic Indicators Plunge At Worst Rate Since 2009.
Labor Market Hits A Brick Wall: Job Openings Crater The Most Since The Financial Crisis.
Shopping Mall Vacancies Hit Two-Decade High.
German Industry "Stuck In Recession," No Signs Of Bottom, Warns BDI.
China's Largest Utility Company Warns "Growth To Decelerate Sharply Through 2024".
World Bank: Global Waves of Debt.
ECRI: Hard Data Defies Confident Consensus.
Yes, Rates are Still Going to Zero.
Big Thoughts:
Wolfgang Streeck: The International State System after Neoliberalism: Europe between National Democracy and Supranational Centralization.
Jonathan Turley: Is Fake News Hard Wired? Study Finds People Misremember Facts To Fit Their Beliefs.
Ian Welsh: The end of public anonymity is close.
(not just) For the ESG crowd:
Planet Just Had Costliest Decade for Global Natural Disasters: Insurance Industry Report.
Climate Change News: Report Warns Of Green Swan Events, Calls On Central Banks To Act.
KEY POINTS
• Green swan events would be unexpected, have far-reaching consequences and can be understood only after the fact • The BIS report says central banks need to start factoring in climate change into their risk analyses
• The report says central banks need to take a leading role to mitigate the effects of climate change
Trudeau and His North Van Climate Minister Are ‘Wrestling’ with a Massive Oilsands Decision.
The Pesticide Industry’s Playbook for Poisoning the Earth.
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