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Sunday, December 31, 2023

2023-12-31

 ***** denotes well-worth reading in full at source (even if excerpted extensively here)


Economic and Market Fare:


The Fed has conquered inflation. It's time to start easing. The economy looks OK, no looming recession. 

Chart #1 is arguably the most important chart that the market and the Fed have almost completely ignored for decades. Sure, everyone talks about the money supply (the best measure of which is M2), but no one talks about money demand. And as all students of economics should have learned, prices are set at the margin by the intersection of supply and demand. As Milton Friedman taught us, inflation happens when the supply of money exceeds the demand for it; so when there is an excess of money supply relative to demand, then prices rise and the value of the dollar declines. But without knowing money demand, which is half of the equation of inflation, we are in the dark when it comes to understanding inflation. To be fair to those who have ignored money demand, there is no direct measure of money demand. But we can infer what is happening with money demand if we just observe inflation: rising inflation must mean that money demand is falling relative to money supply. 

And as subsequent charts show, there are other ways of understanding what is happening with money demand. .......

Rising money demand in 2020-21 kept the surge in M2 money from causing inflation. Falling money demand since 2021 has kept the decline in M2 money from causing deflation. .......


......... The big question today: when will the  Fed start lowering interest rates? Today the bond market is betting it will happen at the March 20 FOMC meeting. In my experience, however, when the market becomes highly confident of something that is going to happen in 3 months' time, the event usually happens sooner. Sometimes the future cannot wait very long to happen. I'd put some bets on an ease at the January 31st FOMC meeting. 



There’s an old axiom in the financial markets: “This time is different” …but it almost never is. History doesn’t necessarily repeat itself in the financial world but usually rhymes with previous economic cycles. Our goal is to flesh out the real possibility of avoiding an economic slowdown in the U.S. in 2024 amidst record tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2023. The consensus of Wall Street analysts’ opinions is firmly in the “soft landing” camp, congratulating the Fed on a successful effort to slay inflation without pushing the economy into a recession.

On the other hand, history is very clear that the Fed has only achieved one soft landing in the past five decades and that was back in 1996. The fact of the matter is that the macro trends in periods similar to now show an overwhelming probability of a recession occurring. Timing being what it is, precise policy adjustments calculated to achieve a bullseye for the U.S. economy is like steering the Titanic to miss the iceberg; it is difficult, if not nearly impossible, to achieve. Forecasting a “soft landing” in 2024 is the quintessential forecast of “this time is different.” We are not saying it couldn’t happen, but we are saying that it could be worthwhile to consider the following macro trends before you are all in on the Fed “sticking the landing.”

Valuation is the first thing to consider when looking at the potential for a “soft landing.” Even in the most optimistic scenarios, the S&P 500 Index’s fair value for 2024 is ALREADY around current levels, meaning that a perfect “soft landing” scenario is already fully priced in. The most unexpected market event in 2023 was that equity prices rose not because revenues rose but rose solely due to multiple expansion. Is it possible for all the optimism to be borne out in 2024 and earnings grow into the “priced for perfection” valuation? Of course, it is possible, but data going back to 1950 shows it hasn’t happened. Current analysts’ earnings growth estimates for the U.S. in 2024 is just 1–1.5%. This is hardly what is required to grow into the current S&P valuation. Economic conditions have been deteriorating, not gaining momentum.

The ugly truth about 2023 is that only seven stocks accounted for nearly all the increase in the S&P 500 as well as the NASDAQ 100 and provided a cumulative return in 2023 of 75%. They also now make up roughly 30% of the S&P 500 while the other 493 companies make up the remaining 70%. We learned a very valuable lesson in the late ‘60s/early ‘70s (Nifty Fifty) and again in the ‘90s (.com era): Whenever a small group of companies become a large part of the largest, most liquid index of companies in the world and are awarded significantly higher valuations, the index has always ended up performing very badly. Could it be that this time it is different? ......




Dave Collum's 2023 Year In Review: Down Some Dark Rabbit Holes, Part 2

PDF


3 takeaways from my time at Variant Perception

1) Know your investment horizon (+ the tools to help you)
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Business cycles (Cyclical): 
Howard Marks said that the persistence of cycles is largely due to the inability of investors to remember the past.

Knowing where you are in the business cycle goes a long way to dialing up/down portfolio risk. It helps that everyone looks at things differently… a lot of weight is placed on lagging and heavily-revised measures like GDP.  Recessions are often modelled as linear processes, but all the empirical data suggests that recessions should be modelled as regime shifts; once the data tips, feedback loops can create very rapid moves in economic and market data. 



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2) Be a good filter
Reading a wide range of material (not just finance…) is probably the best investment you can make for yourself.  Warren Buffett quipped that everyone can read lots, but hardly anyone will. ....

3) Having fun in finance
It’s very easy to be a cynic in this industry, particularly with the rise of “fintwit”. I don’t really enjoy getting engaged in this because you end up feeling really bad about your mistakes.  

Happily acknowledging your mistakes is so important for longevity. It’s hard to do this naturally, but it’s more like a muscle that needs to be flexed.  Once I was able to do this, I had a lot more fun, and typically the best ideas were borne from a place of deep curiosity.

Being around people that also happily acknowledge your mistakes also makes a huge difference – Harvard’s multi-decade happiness study found that fostering positive relationships is the single-most important thing to make you happy. I’m grateful for the people I’ve met along the way and hope to continue investing in these relationships!



Wisdom:

Poor Charlie's Almanack (free online version)



2023 was a perfect example of how important it is to monitor price action and its behavior relative to your thesis. I’m no stranger to overcomplicating things. Sometimes I can’t help it. I want to feel smart or justify the time and energy I put into analyzing markets/portfolios. Legendary investor and founder of Oaktree Capital Management Howard Marks’ 2011 book, “The Most Important Thing” discusses first and second level thinking. I’ll summarize but go read the book if you haven’t - one of the best.

First level thinking is very straightforward. If the asset’s price is going up and earnings are growing, buy it. Don’t think too much, just keep it simple. First level thinking is not “What if” but rather “What is”.

Second level thinking is more complex. You evaluate the range of potential outcomes, compare your view to the consensus, and understand that asset prices are a reflection of the collective expectation of participants. It is more elaborate than first level thinking - but Howard Marks argues it is a required skill to become a superior investor. ......


Common Psychological Pitfalls
Managing our emotions is a prerequisite for intelligent investing
“Many people possess the intellect needed to analyze data, but far fewer are able to look more deeply into things and withstand the powerful influence of psychology. … The biggest investing errors come not from factors that are informational or analytical, but from those that are psychological.” Howard Marks
................... In retrospect, the main reason I underperformed in 2009 had to do with innate traits that are probably hardwired in my personality. I tend to view the world with skepticism that all too often shifts into cynicism.

Skepticism is a healthy trait for investors but cynicism is not. ...........

“Greed is an extremely powerful force. It’s strong enough to overcome common sense, risk aversion, prudence, caution, logic, memory of painful past lessons, resolve, trepidation and all the other elements that might otherwise keep investors out of trouble. Instead, from time to time greed drives investors to throw in their lot with the crowd in pursuit of profit, and eventually they pay the price.”

... 

“In the investment world, [fear] doesn’t mean logical, sensible risk aversion. Rather, fear — like greed — connotes excess. Fear, then is more like panic. Fear is overdone concern that prevents investors from taking constructive action when they should.”




Quotes of the Week:

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Charts:
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(not just) for the ESG crowd:


........ As bad as 2020, 2021, 2022 and now 2023 were, I’m frankly terrified at the thought of what 2024 will bring, and that fear comes from knowing and corresponding with some of the world’s leading climate scientists. We can only speculate as to what a global average temperature more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels will do to our food systems. Maybe we will be lucky in 2024, but it will only be luck than enables stable food supplies from now on. ......................................

In 2024, as for the last five years, my focus will be on exposing the nonsense that Neoclassical economists have written about global warming. It’s taken 4 years to go from realising that their banal damage predictions were based on empirical nonsense, to getting a major report out (Keen 2023) which is having some media impact (“When Idiot Savants Do Climate Economics“, “Economic models buckle under strain of climate reality“). But Neoclassical economists like Nordhaus will probably continue to be taken seriously on global warming until such time as the economy starts to fall apart because of it. I’m very pessimistic about the odds of policymakers and journalists realising that they’ve been conned until after it’s too late to do anything meaningful to reduce the damage.

Unless the Laws of Physics and Biology don’t apply to the economy, it’s only a matter of time before reality trumps the delusional expectations of economists. There’s no certainty that 2024 will be that year—and maybe there’s a natural explanation for the sudden jump in temperatures in 2023. But every year we continue on a business-as-usual approach brings closer the day when business-as-usual will no longer be possible.  ..........



The most significant failure we have witnessed is not that current ESG & Impact investing has not yet delivered; it is that mainstream investing, for 100 years, ignored and still ignores negative externalities generated via their investment decisions. And gets paid for it.

Much has been said and written during 2023 about ESG investing, its shortcomings, weaknesses, as well as misinterpreted intentions of this investment philosophy. The core was and will continue to be the underlying premise this investment philosophy builds upon. Companies that manage relevant and material environmental, social, and governance aspects of their business operation, as well as how they manage what they produce, provide, and sell, will have a significant impact on their long-term valuation. ........

........ In this sense, climate change is not the result of a market failure but rather the outcome of a fully functioning capital-accumulating economy working hard to shift costs onto others, especially those who lack voice or power (such as the poor, future generations, children, and nonhumans).

Orthodox schools of thought and research traditions (including highly constrained forms of modeling), particularly in the fields of economics, energy, and climate, need to be challenged and replaced with, or complemented by, more heterodox approaches.

Transformations toward more sustainable and just futures require a radical reconfiguration of longstanding sociocultural and political-economic norms and institutions currently reproducing the very problems driving climate change. ...........

..... The message is clear. For all the pledges on this planet, we need to see reality for what it is. The underlying business models are not fundamentally changing, and those that do change, a limited number, tend to be smaller and less influential companies.

Growth is still generally not decoupled from CO2 emissions; growth projections of companies are still not aligned with their strategic Sustainability goals. Disclosure becomes a safe haven for endless pages of numbers and stories that mean nothing ...........



All wealth in the end is ecological. Economists contend that growth can continue indefinitely because they measure growth in terms of economic value rather than material throughput (Jackson and Victor 2019). Yet we diminish natural wealth and undervalue its exhaustion at our peril. Even in a highly financialised and service oriented economy, where direct connections to patterns of resource extraction and consumption are sometimes less observable, circulations of finance and the constant manufacture of ‘needs’ through advertising and exchange require resource inputs and lock in unsustainable behaviours. Assuming (often more by implication and neglect than explicitly), as many economists often do, that the environment is an infinite sink for waste and byproducts in pursuit of ever greater levels of production and consumption through market means is both naïve and dangerous (Daly 1996). Assessments of how economies perform, and wealth is generated, now need to start from a basic recognition of our dependence on the natural world and metrics adapted accordingly so that we can measure progress (or the lack of it) in building an economy compatible with life on earth and conserving the stocks and resources that sustain it. ....

This is where the attempt to reinvent growth as ‘green’ falls down (OECD 2011). The so-called Jevon’s paradox looms large here. Writing about coal nearly 150 years ago, Jevons showed how efficiency savings have the ironic and unfortunate effect of encouraging further energy use with the money saved (Jevons 1865). The phenomena whereby efficiency gains in a growth economy are often redirected towards overall increases in consumption highlights many of the limits of green economy thinking. .....


Gretchen Daily is working to make the environment more of an element in economic decision-making.




You’re Supposed To Be Glad Your Tesla Is A Brittle Heap Of Junk

Tesla cars are shoddily built pieces of shit liable to fall apart and malfunction in dangerous ways at inopportune moments. No, this is not a blog from 2012! It is also not a blog from 2015 or 2018 or 2022. It is not even a blog from two weeks ago about Tesla's self-driving systems killing people all over the place. It is a blog from today, Dec. 21, 2023. 

On Wednesday, Reuters published a big, thorough investigative story documenting a pattern of major parts failures on low-mileage Tesla vehicles—and Tesla's organized years-long effort to obscure the pattern and offload its costs onto drivers, so as to sustain the illusion that it is a profitable company making cars that are not piece-of-shit death traps. ..... We are talking, in short, about engineering failures—failures that anyone would find alarming if they encountered them in a soap box derby racer made out of literally a soap box—happening, abruptly and without warning, to Tesla cars that are for all practical purposes brand new. Moreover, they're happening to lots of them, because of manufacture and assembly problems the company knew about, and hid, and lied about, and blamed on the poor suckers who bought its crappy cars.

The Reuters piece is quite long, and earns its length with an incredible wealth of damning receipts, including internal Tesla communications making clear that the company has known about its own shoddy work for a long time, even as it deceived investors, regulators, and drivers. I urge you to read it for yourself. ...........



Geopolitical Fare:


There must be many years at the end of which it is tempting to rank them among the truly awful. Maybe this thought is a comment on our times. Maybe there have been passages in history—there must have been—when those alive looked back with satisfaction at a year lived honorably and productively. However this may be, 2023 must indeed to go into the books as one of serial failures. All of these, or most, we have considered in our commentaries, so no need to rehearse them here.

I think we ought to look beyond the messes, cruelties, dishonesty, and corruptions to see the drift of things, our brief bit of the longue durée. This is positive, or has positive aspects to it.

Nick Kristof, the compulsively smiling Boy Scout of The New York Times opinion page, published a column this morning under the headline, “This Was a Terrible Year, and Also Maybe the Best One Yet for Humanity.” You always get the same thing with these kinds of pieces: The writers revert to statistics, abstract metrics that obscure far more than they reveal. .... 

No, let’s leave the smiles to Nick Kristof. But let’s think for ourselves and recognize that the great arc of history bends in the right direction. The American imperium’s decline steepened the past year, the non–West’s influence rose, and the “rules-based order” is now exposed as the appalling fraud it is. More people are more aware now of the world as it truly is. More people understand mainstream media as propagators of propaganda, more people are reading and supporting independent publications such as those I write for ........


As the death toll in Gaza tops 20,000, Israeli-US lies about Al-Shifa hospital are newly exposed.



The Israeli massacre in Gaza is a catastrophe, and not just for the city’s tortured inmates, languishing for decades under a merciless occupation. The United States in particular, but also Germany, will forever be closely associated with this unrelenting slaughter of thousands of innocent men, women and children, a slaughter that both countries continue to underwrite materially and diplomatically. Two-and-a-half months into the mass killing, the US vetoed a Security Council resolution that would have restored some hope of survival to those Gazans still remaining after the hell of continual bombing and shelling. ......



When Israeli president Isaac Herzog described the assault on Gaza as a war “to save Western civilization, to save the values of Western civilization,” he wasn’t really lying. He was telling the truth — just maybe not quite in the way that he meant it.

The demolition of Gaza is indeed being perpetrated in defense of western values, and is itself a perfect embodiment of western values. Not the western values they teach you about in school, but the hidden ones they don’t want you to look at. Not the attractive packaging with the advertising slogans on the label, but the product that’s actually inside the box.

For centuries western civilization has depended heavily on war, genocide, theft, colonialism and imperialism, which it has justified using narratives premised on religion, racism and ethnic supremacy — all of which we are seeing play out in the incineration of Gaza today. 

What we are seeing in Gaza is a much better representation of what western civilization is really about than all the gibberish about freedom and democracy we learned about in school. A much better representation of western civilization than all the art and literature we’ve been proudly congratulating ourselves on over the centuries. A much better representation of western civilization than the love and compassion we like to pretend our Judeo-Christian values revolve around. .... 



And 90% aren’t eating every day.

The US could stop this tomorrow, Israel is a small country completely dependent on America.

The only country really doing anything to help is Yemen. .....

... The Yemeni statement on the US threats (it’s really a US operation, the rest of the nations are there to pretend it’s multinational) is sad, in the sense that this is the only truly moral nation in the world in relation to Palestine..
Muhammad Al-Bukhaiti: Even if America succeeds in mobilizing the entire world, our military operations will not stop unless the genocide in Gaza stops and food, medicine, and fuel are allowed to enter its besieged population, no matter the sacrifices it costs us.
...



........... Throughout my life I’ve had a positive view of Jews and Jewish culture because so many of the people I’ve admired and been influenced by have been Jewish, but other than that it’s not something that I’ve really thought about much. This notion that opposition to the criminality of the Israeli government is driven by a demented hatred of Jewish people is a complete work of fiction. People in our society simply do not feel that way about Jews. Real antisemitism does exist, but it’s a small fringe view. Normal people just want the mass slaughter of children and the ethnic cleansing to stop. .....



Israel will appear triumphant after it finishes its genocidal campaign in Gaza and the West Bank. Backed by the United States, it will achieve its demented goal. Its murderous rampages and genocidal violence will exterminate or ethnically cleanse Palestinians. Its dream of a state exclusively for Jews, with any Palestinians who remain stripped of basic rights, will be realized. It will revel in its blood-soaked victory. It will celebrate its war criminals. Its genocide will be erased from public consciousness and tossed into Israel’s huge black hole of historical amnesia. Those with a conscience in Israel will be silenced and persecuted. 

But by the time Israel achieves its decimation of Gaza — Israel is talking about months of warfare — it will have signed its own death sentence. Its facade of civility, its supposed vaunted respect for the rule of law and democracy, its mythical story of the courageous Israeli military and miraculous birth of the Jewish nation, will lie in ash heaps. Israel’s social capital will be spent. It will be revealed as an ugly, repressive, hate-filled apartheid regime ..........

............ Israel is a pariah state. This was publically on display on Dec. 12 when 153 member states at the U.N. General Assembly voted for a ceasefire, with only 10 — including the U.S. and Israel — opposed and 23 abstaining. Israel’s scorched earth campaign in Gaza means there will be no peace. There will be no two state solution. Apartheid and genocide will define Israel. This presages a long, long conflict, one the Jewish State cannot ultimately win.


How the USA is leaving behind not only devastation but hardened enemies, too.

With Israel and the West committing genocide against the Palestinians to ethnically cleanse Gaza, the only outside (de facto) government that has lived up to the elementary demands of the most basic ethics – as well as the UN 1948 UN Genocide Convention and the 1998 Rome Statute – by taking direct military action to confront the perpetrators is that of Yemen. Otherwise, the heroic Palestinian Resistance defenders of Gaza stand alone. ......

That is the dystopian hell world we really live in: Its strongest (for now) states commit and support a genocide and ethnic cleansing war of extermination, proudly announced by the Israeli perpetrators and broadcast in detail for the whole world to watch in real time. Rich-world war tourists, meanwhile, get on planes to get their slice of the mass murder action and post about it on X.

It is left to Yemen, a poor and small country, itself recently ravaged by a brutal war of bombing and starvation, conducted under the leadership of Saudi Arabia and, of course, backed by the West, to do what all of us should be doing: help Palestine and fight Israel. It is an additional irony that the governments that perpetrate the genocide, whether directly or by being complicit, deny recognition to the one government that acts according to international law and intervenes. ........



........... We’ll discuss the multiple fronts ‘Israel’ is fighting on, but first it’s important to remember that ‘Israel’ is a front. ‘Israel’ would collapse in a week without western munitions, they’re just there because Empire wants them there, as a garrison state near the gas station. All of Israel’s allies—the UK, Europe, Australia—are fronts also. They’re just America’s bitches, barking. America itself is a front for what I call White Empire, the continuous regime of colonization that changes capitals and keeps going.

These carbon crusaders are what the ‘Axis of Resistance’ is fighting, and the rebellion has spread in every direction. From the moral center of the Al Aqsa mosque, the Al Aqsa Flood has spread to the north, south, east, and west. Countless long-suffering people have answered the call of the long-suffering people of Palestine (and some notable nations haven’t). We’ve gone over who the Resistance is previously. Now we’ll discuss where they are, and what they’re doing to resist.

This is the Praxis of Resistance. ........... 

.................. Now bear in mind that we’re only discussing one war Empire is embroiled in, they’re also getting their ass-kicked in Ukraine, trying to start another war with China, and couping everybody from Haiti to Peru to Pakistan. White Empire — centered in America — has bitten off more than it can chew and is choking to death on its own hubris. Unfortunately a dying empire can still kill lots of people, but mark my words, it’s ending. .....

There is an important and perhaps easily overlooked lesson here. Even those of us awake enough to know that America is a very evil empire, addicted to dominance, militarism, violence, and lying, may sometimes be missing something. The US has such a knack of devastating those societies it targets that it is easy to see nothing else: They make a desert, again and again and again, and they hardly even bother anymore to call it peace, to paraphrase a famous speech ascribed by Tacitus to an anti-Roman resistance leader.

Korea, Vietnam, Laos, Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq,… and the list is far from complete. US power to punish – and if not traumatize and subdue than traumatize and cripple – by laying waste is so overwhelming that it has a stunning effect far beyond its victims. It almost seems as if this empire can only win, because even when it loses, as it does quite often, it still makes an example of those who defied it. Ask in Afghanistan, for instance.

But it is also doing something else: With all its brutality and cruelty, Washington is also constantly enlarging the camp not only of those who hate it, and for very good reasons, but those to whom it has done its worst, whether by lethal economic or even more lethal military warfare – and who nonetheless are still standing. Ansar Allah is a classic example of this. So are Afghanistan, Iran, Venezuela, and, in a much bigger way, actually, even China and Russia.

The USA, in short, is creating, even fostering not only its own worst but toughest enemies: leaderships and whole societies who know exactly how vicious America is, but who have lost their fear. ..........



........ A new year is about to begin. What do we see as we peer across the great divide on our calendars into the other side of midnight, Dec. 31, 2023? As the case of Ukrainian children makes plain, the first thing we see is that we cannot see very well, so thoroughly have our media blurred our vision. “The only thing that can save the world,” Allen Ginsberg remarked in 1973, “is the reclaiming of the awareness of the world.” This seems as true and urgent now as it was 50 years ago. Let us, then, look through the blur to see as best we can. ............

I would say it is the same in the case of Israel except that it is worse. Israel has already lost the war in Gaza—the war that is not, in fact, a war but a murder spree. It will succeed tactically, on the ground, but its strategic defeat is a fait accompli. It is strong language, but I will use it: These months of barbarity, with more to come, mark out Israel as a failed state. It is a chaotic entity that depends on violence toward others for its existence, and the violence depends on an irresponsible sponsor. It is inherently, institutionally discriminatory and adopts the apartheid system from white South Africa. ........

It has been said many times that those without a past have no future. Or that without a past one is marooned in an eternal present with no prospect other than repetition of the what is, as I call it. There is the famous line from Kundera’s The Book of Laughter and Forgetting, quoted so often it is cliché, but there seems no avoiding it given its merciless pertinence to our condition: “The struggle of man against power is the struggle of memory against forgetting.” ........









............ There are many reasons why men and women with actual integrity don’t make it to the top very often or change from good people to bad once they have power. But the hedonic adjustment to the normal perks of power, the panderers who want a hook and the elite need for everyone with power to be compromised are a big part of why.



Sci Fare:




Other Fare:



Maybe what we need is not just a new form of poultry farming but a complete revolution in how we relate to meat.




Bereft and suicidal, I lay on my sofa. Only David Foster Wallace’s novel kept me tethered to life, and still does


Fake, Gay, and DIEing of AIDS
The year we realized the universities can’t be saved, and shouldn’t be.

......... Claudine the Fake and Gay is one of them. She is, in a sense, all of them, the distilled essence of their entire class, the embodied avatar of the modern academy. .... 

She is a professional black woman, writing about black woman things, and therefore a perfect figurehead for a narcissistic academy filled to its frothy brim with professional sodomities writing about sodomy things, professional women writing about woman things, professional Muslims writing about Muslim people things, and professional trannies writing about things you really wish they’d keep to themselves.

Some have have expressed bewildered amazement that Harvard could not have found a black woman of actual academic accomplishment, rather than, you know, her. I have no doubt that such black women must exist, but this complaint misses the point. Fake and Gay was appointed to her position not in spite of her pathetic scholarly record, but because of it. For the legions of posers and frauds occupying the offices of Harvard’s department, her unimpressive contributions make them feel safe. She’s just like them. She won’t make them look bad. By ostentatiously lowering the bar so far it drops into the dirt, she reaffirms that the rest of them can carry on doing what they’ve been doing – which is to say, nothing that matters to anyone. Including themselves. 

Essentially everything in the universities is now at best irrelevant, at worst openly fraudulent.

Lest you think this is isolated to the departments of grievance studies, I assume you, there is no succour to be found in the austere Apollonian hallways of STEM. ........

Biomedical faculties operate as the marketing departments for Big Pharma, pushing placebos and poisons for profit.

And then, of course, there is the COVID-19 scamdemic, in which every element of the academy was an enthusiastic participant. What can you say about an institution that abandoned centuries of epidemiological knowledge to slobber at the clay feet of the ill-considered mandates of power?  .........

The academy cannot be saved. The rot is too deep. The problem is not a tiny stage 1 melanoma that can be excised with a bit of surgery and a pat on the hand, but a metastatic cancer that has spread to every tissue within the organism. To remove every infected cell would be to remove every cell. To cure the body would be to kill it.

Which is exactly what we should do.

Put the universities out of their misery.

That which is falling, should also be pushed.

Like monasteries isolated from but lavishly supported by the outside world, in which elaborate prayers are chanted only for the ears of the monks, the universities no longer serve any socially useful function. They serve only themselves. The young minds entrusted to them are not sharpened by intellectual training, but dulled by postmodern superstitions, and deranged with deliberately induced schizoid psychoses. Sinecures are provided to charlatans more suitable as janitors. Insofar as there are any talented intellects still within the ivory towers (and there are still a few), those minds are squandered on self-referential nonsense of no benefit and much harm to the species. The universities have become pointless concentrations of financial and intellectual capital locked away from any productive use for reasons that make sense to no one but themselves.  .....



Pics of the Week:

Monday, December 18, 2023

2023-12-18

***** denotes well-worth reading in full at source (even if excerpted extensively here)


Economic and Market Fare:

Hussman: The Secret Life of Fed Pivots

....... We’ve abandoned our reliance on speculative limits, but the combination of valuations and market internals remains central to our discipline. When neither is favorable, a “trap door” opens. That combination doesn’t require a market collapse, but it does permit one, because it brings risk-aversion into a market that’s not priced for risk. As I wrote at the 2000 bubble peak, “This is a lesson best learned before a crash rather than after one.” ........

As I detailed in The Structural Drivers of Investment Returns, once we know the starting valuation of the market and dividend yield of the S&P 500, the arithmetic of returns dictates that there are really only two factors that will determine future investment returns: a) the growth rate g of whatever fundamental we’ve chosen, and b) the valuation multiple V at the end of our investment horizon T. That’s true for any fundamental we choose. It’s just arithmetic.

Average annual total return = (1+g) x (V_future / V_today)^(1/T) – 1 + average dividend yield

The more predictability there is around those two factors – long-term growth and ending valuations – the more reliable the valuation measure. That’s exactly why it’s preferable to use fundamentals with smooth and predictable long-term growth rates, and to use a denominator that’s representative and proportional to the very, very, very long-term stream of cash flows that companies will deliver to investors over time.

Arithmetic is the greatest long-term adversary of rich valuations. Consider, for example, that nominal GDP, corporate gross value-added, and S&P 500 revenues have all grown by only about 4.5% annually over the past 10, 20, and 30 years. This includes all the technological innovation of the “new economy” in recent decades. For S&P 500 revenues, it also includes the cumulative benefit of stock buybacks. While earnings have grown faster than 4.5%, primarily due to depressed post-GFC wage growth and low interest costs born of a decade of zero-interest rate policy, elevated profit margins must now be sustained forever in order for earnings growth to keep pace with revenue growth. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 price/revenue ratio is presently at 2.6, higher than any multiple observed in U.S. history prior to September 2020. Finally, the dividend yield of the S&P 500 is presently just 1.5% even though dividends are close to the highest fraction of revenues in history.

The easy part, but the hard reality, is arithmetic. Assuming that today’s extreme price/revenue ratio maintains a “permanently high plateau” (the same proposition Irving Fisher infamously offered at the 1929 peak), a continued 4.5% growth rate in revenues would be accompanied by the same 4.5% growth rate in prices. Add a 1.5% dividend yield, and a permanently high plateau would be expected to produce 6% annual long-term total returns for the S&P 500.

The problem is that the historical norm of the S&P 500 price/revenue ratio has been not 2.6, but only about 1.0. The ratio got down to 1.16 at the 2002 market low, 0.66 at the 2009 low, and a still elevated 1.59 at the low of the pandemic selloff in early 2020. Let’s assume that a decade from now, the ratio stands no lower than that 2020 trough of 1.59. In that event, continued 4.5% revenue growth coupled with a 1.5% average dividend yield implies average annual 10-year S&P 500 total returns of just (1.045)*(1.59/2.60)^(1/10)-1+0.015 = 1.0% annually for a decade. Should the price/revenue ratio touch its historical norm of 1.0, the estimated 10-year outcome would be a loss of about -3.5% annually.

That basic arithmetic is why elevated valuations tend to produce “long, interesting trips to nowhere” for investors. Amid the excitement of Fed pivots and record highs, it may be lost on investors that the S&P 500 lagged Treasury bonds from August 1929 to July 1950, December 1968 to December 1987, and March 1998 to March 2020. That’s 62 years out of a 91-year period, all from valuation levels less extreme than we observe at present.

These long, interesting trips to nowhere can be measured from varying starting points, but the defining feature is that they begin at points of elevated valuations and end at points, often well over a decade later, of depressed valuations. Relative to risk-free Treasury bills, for example, the S&P 500 lagged T-bills from 1929 to 1947, 1966 to 1985, and 2000 to 2013. That’s 50 years out of an 84-year period. Lagging T-bills. Still, it should not be lost on investors that most of this underperformance is compressed into a few years following extreme valuations. It’s the initial collapses from extreme valuations like today’s that do the most damage.

At present, we estimate that a decline to the 1650 level on the S&P 500 (a 65% loss) would be needed to restore historically run-of-the-mill S&P 500 expected returns of 10% annually. A level of 1800 (a 62% loss) would bring our estimates of expected returns to a typical 5% risk-premium over and above current 10-year Treasury yields. A decline to about 2750 on the S&P 500 (a 42% loss) would bring our estimates of 10-year S&P 500 total returns merely in line with the prevailing 4% yield on 10-year Treasury bonds. None of these figures are forecasts, but they do represent historically consistent estimates of the potential market losses that would be needed to restore pedestrian levels of long-term expected return. I realize that estimating potential market losses of 42-65% may seem preposterous, but as I wrote in March 2000, “If you understand values and market history, you know we’re not joking.” ..........










Should we be teaching Neoclassical Economics to undergraduates?

“Because of this, we must teach it, but only to discredit it, make students aware of what is wrong, and what is disconnected from how markets operate. So, there is a distinction to be made between how markets do not follow the laws of neoclassical economics, and how the world is dominated by its practice: policy wonks, politicians, bankers and professors prefer to ‘rebuke the line for touching’. It is this wisdom and this distinction that we must teach our students.”

.............

Perhaps a more accurate description is John King’s conclusion that,

“Mainstream macroeconomic theory is wrong, and it has pernicious consequences when used as the basis for economic policy.”

Of course, this echoes Keynes’s own statement, in the opening paragraph of The General Theory, when he wrote:

“The characteristics of the special case assumed by the classical theory happen not to be those of the economic society in which we actually live, with the result that its teaching is misleading and disastrous if we attempt to apply it to the facts of experience.”

Disastrous, indeed. The result is all too obvious, as Keynes also reminds us, in an essay written in 1930. Referring to the “nightmare”, Keynes writes:

“We have involved ourselves in a colossal muddle, having blundered in the control of a delicate machine, the working of which we do not understand. The result is that our possibilities of wealth may run to waste for a time — perhaps for a long time.” ......








Vid of the Week:




Charts:
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(not just) for the ESG crowd:


......... It is commonly reported that we are on a trajectory to reach about 2.9°C of warming by the end of the century, but it is rarely explained that this only takes account of humanity’s direct effects. Natural feedbacks would long since have kicked in that would drive heating much higher. We are really on a trajectory to apocalypse. ..........




Last time, I expressed extreme disappointment that fossil fuel executives had any role in leading the climate meeting COP28. This is a classic example of putting the the fox in charge of the hen house. The issue is easily summed up:
It’s difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on not understanding it.

Upton Sinclair
Setting aside economic self-interest and other human foibles, it is clear from the comments that the science is not as clear to everyone as it is to me. That’s fair; I’ve followed this subject for half a lifetime, and it is closely related to my own field.

Stars are fusion reactors surrounded by big balls of gas; understanding how they work was a major triumph of 20th century astrophysics. We understand these things. Planetary atmospheres are also balls of gas; there is some rich physics there but the problem is in many ways simpler when they aren’t acting as the container for a giant fusion reactor. We understand these things. The atmospheres of Venus and Mars come up when teaching Astronomy 101, these planets represent opposite extremes of climate change run amok. From that perspective, Earth is a nice problem to have. We understand these things.

It is easy to get distracted by irrelevant details. No climate model is ever perfect, but that doesn’t mean we don’t understand what’s going on. The issue is basic physics, which has been understood for well over a century. Not only is the physics incredibly clear; so too is the need to take collective action to ameliorate the effects of climate change. The latter has itself been clear since 1990+ at least.


An interview with Navroz Dubash on COP28, the history of international climate diplomacy, and the developmentalist turn in climate politics



Geopolitical Fare:




These theoretical megastructures represent one way an advanced civilization might harvest energy from stars.





Pics of the Week:

Cosmic dust, microscopic syrup, a flying gecko and more.