Pages

Wednesday, December 28, 2022

2022-12-28

*** denotes well-worth reading in full at source (even if excerpted extensively here)


Economic and Market Fare:

Pozsar:  War and Commodity Encumbrance (pdf)


Keen: Using accounting to prove the core propositions of MMT and Endogenous Money

............... Conclusion

Frankly, none of this should be controversial: it is, as shown in this post, simply a matter of accounting. The controversy comes from mainstream “Neoclassical” economists—aided and abetted by Austrian economists, gold bugs, and the like—not understanding how the monetary system works, because they don’t understand double entry bookkeeping—let alone. think in terms of it when modelling the economy.

Instead, thanks to their ignorance, we have endless “crises” over debt ceilings, too much private credit money creation thanks to too small government deficits, austerity crippling economies as it results in governments not investing sufficiently in infrastructure and welfare, and “puzzling” low growth rates for economies that thought that austerity would unleash private sector creativity, when in fact it hampered it by reducing the growth of the money supply. 

Will the collective We ever understand this? Frankly, I doubt it. I’ve witnessed decades of delusion on these issues, and I reckon I’ll witness years more, despite the success of MMT in getting good sense on money creation into the public debate. 



Modigliani was right

In 2000, Italian economist, Franco Modigliani, who was a co-author on a paper that introduced the term NAIRU (Non-Accelerating-Inflation-Rate-of-Unemployment) into the economics lexicon, seemed to reflect on the damage that adherence to the NAIRU concept among central bankers and other policy makers had done.

Reflecting on what central bankers had done in his name, he wrote:
Unemployment is primarily due to lack of aggregate demand. This is mainly the outcome of erroneous macroeconomic policies … [the decisions of Central Banks] … inspired by an obsessive fear of inflation … coupled with a benign neglect for unemployment … have resulted in systematically over tight monetary policy decisions, apparently based on an objectionable use of the so-called NAIRU approach. The contractive effects of these policies have been reinforced by common, very tight fiscal policies


Quotes of the Week:

Gayed: BREAKING: THE BOND MARKET IS SMARTER THAN THE STOCK MARKET AND IS SAYING WE FUCKED.
Now go enjoy returning all those gifts you never wanted to begin with when all you really needed was to pay down your debt.



Charts: 
1:

 


Saturday, December 24, 2022

2022-12-24

*** denotes well-worth reading in full at source (even if excerpted extensively here)



Economic and Market Fare:

Final Q3 GDP Comes Unexpectedly Hot At 3.2%, Well Above 2.9% Estimate



US Leading Economic Indicators Plunge Most 'Since Lehman'

... And on a year-over-year basis, the LEI is down 4.42% - its biggest YoY drop since 2008 (Lehman) outside of the COVID lockdown-enforced collapse...


Lumber Prices Collapse As Homebuilder Sentiment Falters



FedEx Misses On Revenue; Cuts Another Billion In Costs; Trims Outlook On "Continued Demand Weakness"

 

US Durable Goods Orders Plunge In November, Biggest Drop Since COVID

 

US New Home Sales Unexpectedly Soar (Again) In November

 

Mitchell: Bank of Japan has not shifted direction on monetary policy


Klein: The Bank of Japan Makes a Tweak
Adjusting the parameters of yield curve control for the 10-year tenor while increasing asset purchases is not tightening, not a pivot, and not a signal (or at least not an obvious one).


***** Grannis: Higher interest rates have solved the inflation problem

As I've been pointing out for over two years, rapid growth in the M2 money supply is a big deal, and one that has not received much attention, if any. At first (i.e., mid- to late 2020) it was OK, because the public felt comfortable holding on to large amounts of cash in their bank deposit and savings accounts at a time of great Covid-related uncertainty and economy-wide lockdowns. But starting early last year, when the worst of the Covid panic was subsiding and life was beginning to get back to normal, people began spending that money. Soon, a flood of spending collided with supply shortages and a still-crippled economy, and the result was higher prices. By the end of last year, inflation was galloping towards 10% or so, but the Fed ignored it, asserting it was merely "transitory." It wasn't until March of this year that the Fed began to get worried. True to form (unfortunately), the Fed was—once again!—late to the inflation party, and they have been trying to catch up ever since. As we now know, they embarked on an impressive series of rate hikes which took short-term rates from 0.25% last March to now 4.5%. That marked the most aggressive monetary tightening in history.

Last week the Fed reiterated its intention to snuff out inflation with still more hikes. Sadly, they are now overstaying their welcome at the inflation party, because we know that inflation peaked many months ago. Unfortunately they didn't get my memo on the subject.

The market is rightly concerned to be worried by all of this.

When all is said and done, the Fed has but one job: to keep the demand for money in line with the supply of money. .....

... Everything is working against the housing market. Does the Fed really want to crush the housing market by hiking rates further? I think they will come to their senses pretty quickly and back off of their recently-announced tightening pledge.

 

Hedging The Early Recession

The unexpected risk next year is not a recession, which looks very likely based on the data, but that one happens faster than almost all expect. Front-end Eurodollar or Fed Funds flatteners should do well in such a scenario.

Sometimes it is prudent to be skeptical when all the experts agree, but based on a dispassionate analysis of the data, there is a very high likelihood the US has a recession next year. Indeed, it would be remiss not to forecast one when there is such a weight of data pointing in that direction. 

One of the most stark examples is the rapid tightening in financial conditions, to an extent only seen around recessions.



SF Fed 'Proxy Rate' Signals Most-Inverted Yield Curve Since 1981


Quotes of the Week:

Maharrey: The Federal Reserve would like you to think that it is scientifically guiding the economy with carefully calculated monetary policy. The truth is the Fed is making things up as it goes along.
 

Edwards: And the big surprise in 2023 will be… a return to deflation fears as headline CPI inflation drops close to, or likely below zero. Investors are already anticipating recession and have an unusually strong preference for bonds. But how low will yields fall in 2023 as headline inflation evaporates?



Charts: 
 
2022 End of Year Special Edition [Free Download]

This report includes 47 of our best, worst, and favorite charts of 2022 and the must-see macro/market charts to have on your radar in 2023…



(not just) for the ESG crowd:
 
 
With a nominal CO₂ capture capacity of up to 36,000 tons per year when fully operational” the world’s largest project could possibly remove about a millionth of annual emissions
 
 
Head of Ontario species at risk agency resigns over changes to Greenbelt, conservation authorities
Doug Varty, who stepped down as chair of Ontario’s Species Conservation Action Agency, said the government ‘is not listening to or acting in the best long-term interests of the people’ 

 
Sitting about 12 miles off the Louisiana coast near the mouth of the Mississippi River, an abandoned well has been spilling oil into the Gulf of Mexico for the past 18 years. This is the longest-running oil spill in U.S. history and is still ongoing at the time of this writing.

Left unchecked, it could continue to spill oil into the ocean for another 100 years. ...


 

 


Other Fare:
 
 
Conclusions
Acute tissue injuries and microglial activation were the most common abnormalities in COVID-19 brains. Focal evidence of encephalitis-like changes was noted despite the lack of detectable virus. The majority of older subjects showed age-related brain pathologies even in the absence of known neurologic disease. Findings of this study suggest that acute brain injury superimposed on common pre-existing brain disease may put older subjects at higher risk of post-COVID neurologic sequelae.
 
 
 
Abstract
Severe COVID-19 is associated with epithelial and endothelial barrier dysfunction within the lung as well as in distal organs. While it is appreciated that an exaggerated inflammatory response is associated with barrier dysfunction, the triggers of vascular leak are unclear. Here, we report that cell-intrinsic interactions between the Spike (S) glycoprotein of SARS-CoV-2 and epithelial/endothelial cells are sufficient to induce barrier dysfunction in vitro and vascular leak in vivo, independently of viral replication and the ACE2 receptor. ...


 
RIP:
 
 
Scott Minerd, CIO of Guggenheim Partners, one of the best strategists on Wall Street and a passionate weightlifter, died from a heart attack during his regular workout at the age of 63. Scott was one of the good guys and his insight was always ahead of the curve. He will be missed.



Vid of the Week:
 




Wednesday, December 21, 2022

2022-12-21

*** denotes well-worth reading in full at source (even if excerpted extensively here)


Economic and Market Fare:

The signal and the noise

....... conclusion is indeed gloomy. Markets have been fooled by randomness. There may be a lot more tightening in the pipeline than is priced in atm. 


The Path to Q1 Deflation

The odds that we get at least one month of negative inflation data in Q1 is increasing. Will deflation become a concern in Q1? That is possible (and maybe even probable) if we continue on the course of action that we are currently taking. I do not believe that we will be worried about inflation in a meaningful way by the end of Q1. In fact, as you can tell from Inflation Risk Factors and 2 + 2 = 5, I think that we have already set ourselves on a course that we will regret.

Today we will outline how and why Q1 deflation is a bigger risk than having high inflation in Q1. I use the term “risk” because the deflation will be linked to a recession that starts sooner and will be worse than consensus (Friday’s data makes me wonder if it hasn’t already started). ....

... The lag effect is real and even with that lag, inflation is behaving better. What happens when more hikes (that have already been announced) kick in? Deflation seems to come to mind, but we have potentially only just begun to go down that path.

.... Part of me would like to type QED now and say that we’ve proved our point and enjoy the rest of the weekend, but there is a lot more to write about to convince you why deflation is the path that we are on. .........

... In any case, I’m not sure we should cheer low oil prices. Maybe what is counteracting all of the potential reasons for oil to be higher is that the economy is slowing much faster than is currently showing up in the official data. ......

The path to deflation is becoming less avoidable and beating inflation (so badly) is not the victory that we should be striving for.

This week’s “risk-off” trading with low yields and lower equities may be a harbinger of things to come based on our apparent policy priorities and data “analysis.”





................... A profits contraction has started as wages, import prices and interest costs are now rising faster than sales revenue. Profit margins (per unit of output) have peaked (at a high level) as unit non-labour costs and wage costs per unit are rising and productivity stagnates. The post-pandemic profits bonanza is over.  When we get full data for 2022 corporate profitability, expect it to have fallen again as we enter a new slump in the US in 2023.
 
 
Marks: Sea Change
 
In my 53 years in the investment world, I’ve seen a number of economic cycles, pendulum swings, manias and panics, bubbles and crashes, but I remember only two real sea changes.  I think we may be in the midst of a third one today. .....





On December 13 Ghana reached staff-level agreement on a $3 bn IMF credit package. In addition it is seeking to negotiate a 30 percent haircut with private creditors on tens of billions in bonds. Already in September Ghana’s 2026 eurobonds plunged to a record low of 59.30 cents on the US dollar. By the end of October yields had surged to 38.6 %, up from less than 11% at the end of 2021. Meanwhile, inflation is headed to 40 percent and the cedi is the worst performing currency not just in Africa but of all currencies in the world.

You could shrug and say that this is Ghana’s second IMF deal in 3 years and its 17th since independence in 1957. Plus ça change. But it is more than a national crisis. It is the latest sign that the entire model of market-based development financing is in crisis. 

The fact that borrowers like Ghana find themselves in trouble at this moment is not surprising. The hiking of interest rates occurs in waves and whenever it happens it hits the weakest. We don’t call it a global dollar credit-cycle for nothing. This year, as the Fed has hiked, the average emerging-market dollar yield has doubled to over 9%. Debt issued by stressed frontier market borrowers has seen yields surging to 30 percent or more.

But to treat the news from Ghana as “just another predictable crisis”, is to trivialize and to fail to grasp the significance of the current moment.

Ghana is an important African success story. ....


Africa needs a development leader. Ghana can't afford to play the game of borrow-and-bailout.

...... Obviously Ghana’s development is most important to the ~32 million people who actually live in Ghana. But it’s also important in the broader context of African development, because it’s one of the leading candidates to become the “first mover” in the region. ......



Quotes of the Week:


Field: Financial markets (credit and equity) beginning to price in Fed's commitment to driving US economy into a severe recession.  Fed officials wondered why markets hadn't fallen previously.  Why?  Market participants didn't think Fed stupid enough to trigger unnecessary recession.



Charts: 
1:




...
...




Bubble Fare:


As of Friday, December 16, the S&P 500 Index is down -19.7% from the most speculative level of valuations in U.S. history – exceeding even the 1929 and 2000 extremes, based on the valuation measures we find best-correlated with actual subsequent market returns in cycles across history. The apparent shallowness of this loss isn’t a sign of “resilience.” Despite being nearly a year into what we expect to be a far deeper retreat, the relatively shallow loss isn’t even surprising. The same thing happened in the first year of each of the three deepest post-war stock market collapses: the 2000-2002, 2007-2009, and 1973-74. .........





...

...... This year, the Nasdaq has fared far worse than the broader market. To date, this is the worst year for the Nasdaq since 2008 and before that 2000. Nevertheless, bulls are doing a great job putting lipstick on this pig.

I would point out to bulls that the Fed was already easing at the end of 2000 AND 2008. And as we see from Y2K, the Nasdaq continued falling for another two years AFTER the Fed started easing in 2000.

Which gets us to the housing market. So far, the bubble has remained mostly intact with some regional deviations. Few if any pundits are sounding the alarm on another full scale 2008 style meltdown. Except for Michael Burry who predicted the last housing meltdown. He has been warning all year. .....


WHATEVER HAPPENED TO RETURNS ON CAPITAL?

FOREWORD

If you own a portfolio of stocks whose value has risen over time, or a property whose market price has increased, you are at liberty to cash in those gains by selling your investment. This, though, does not apply to investors in the aggregate because, by definition, any sizeable selling activity drives prices down, thus reducing, eliminating or reversing prior capital appreciation.

Put another way, the tidal-wave of cheap money poured into the economy over the past fourteen years, whilst it may have enriched some, has created paper, notional or non-realisable gains for the majority of investors, including those ‘ordinary’, non-wealthy people whose savings are managed by institutions, and whose wealth is often based on inflated property values which, in the aggregate, cannot be turned into cash.

The principle is that, unlike incomes from dividends or rents, aggregate gains in asset prices cannot be monetized.

Though critical, this point is entirely missed by any media reporter who writes about the billions (or trillions) ‘gained’ by investors over a given period of time, and by those statisticians who, by multiplying the price of the average home by the number of properties, purport to put an aggregate ‘value’ on a nation’s housing stock. The multiplication of aggregate quantities – such as the numbers of stocks, bonds or properties – by marginal transaction prices creates valuations which are as meaningless as they are often impressive.

This needs to be borne in mind when we look at the gains supposedly made ‘by investors’ since the authorities adopted policies which, by driving down returns on capital, have created enormous increases in the market values of assets. 

The subject of ‘investors’ has become almost toxic since the global financial crisis, when the authorities were accused of ‘rescuing Wall Street by plundering Main Street’. Inequalities of incomes and wealth have undoubtedly widened dramatically, and some governments have actually made this worse by ‘helping’ young people to go deeply into debt in order to shore up property prices to the benefit of their elders. There is nothing here that any reasonable person would try to defend.

Analytically, though, something fundamental has happened to returns on capital. Income returns – in the form of bankable cash – have been crushed, and replaced by non-bankable capital gains which, in the aggregate, can’t be monetized.

We know how this has happened, and we can be pretty sure about where it ends, which is in falls of varying (but generally severe) magnitude across the gamut of asset classes.

But why has the financial system behaved in this way? The view set out here is that an economy characterised by cosmetic “growth” has been forced to resort to replacing bankable investment returns with cosmetic, non-monetizable “returns” on capital.

What follows is not, in any sense ‘sympathetic’ to investors, still less a defence of the paper beneficiaries of the divergence between incomes and asset prices. Rather, the aim is to examine the abandonment of market and capitalist principles in the face of unacknowledged economic contraction. ..............



(not just) for the ESG crowd:

SWOT satellite will bounce radar off water bodies to give scientists a new window into climate change and the global water cycle.



Sci Fare:

The brain of an octopus has some similarities to humans, and shows many signs of high intelligence.



Other Fare:





Saturday, December 17, 2022

2022-12-17

*** denotes well-worth reading in full at source (even if excerpted extensively here)


Economic and Market Fare:


After reading John Authers’ piece this morning, I was not really planning to write a note on yesterday’s FOMC meeting. I think he summed up the Fed’s actions very well and correctly analysed the market’s reactions. And I would say that indeed the mantra “Don’t fight the Fed” should be valid in general. But that holds true only if we understand what the Fed is trying to achieve. Here is a more nuanced view on the matter.

If the Fed had only raised the dot plot in the face of slowing down inflation since the last SEP (and obviously reiterated that there would be no cuts next year, etc.), I would have concluded that the Fed intends to keep hiking, regardless, bound not to repeat the ‘mistakes’ of the late 1970s. Don’t fight the Fed in this case would have been the right strategy.

However, raising the dot plot in the face of slowing inflation but also alluding to a smaller hike than priced in the next FOMC meeting (see Authers’ note above) introduces a decent amount of confusion as to exactly what the Fed’s intentions are. ......

... The final possibility is that the Fed has literally and figuratively lost the plot (pun intended) and is planning to stay hawkish (not necessarily continue to hike, but certainly not cut) until the inflation rate crosses back below 2%, regardless of what happens to the economy. It must be clear that in this case “Don’t fight the Fed” firmly holds.

I have no idea what most of the other FOMC members’ intentions are but listening to Fed Chairman Powell’s press conference, I am pretty sure what his are: I think he is firmly in the last camp above. Here is why. .....


Consumer spending power and underlying price pressures are not yet ticking lower. That is worsening the perceived tradeoff between growth and inflation.

Federal Reserve officials are becoming increasingly convinced that prices will continue to rise faster than desired without a sharp economic slowdown. The latest projections of growth, unemployment, inflation, and interest rates “under appropriate monetary policy” imply that they believe that the cost of taming inflation has gotten worse compared to September.

While I hope that their pessimism is unwarranted—and that Fed officials will be nimble enough to adjust their policy if it needs to be recalibrated—their concerns are consistent with the latest data on underlying income growth as well as measures of underlying price pressures. Moreover, if we look at the inflation measures that Fed officials say they are focusing on, it is clear that there has been a persistent acceleration in price growth. While inflation in these sub-categories could slow on its own, there is no sign yet that this is happening. .....






Here Comes The Job Shock: Philadelphia Fed Admits US Jobs "Overstated" By At Least 1.1 Million





............ We’ll get to the math in a moment. But let’s start with a simple example. Suppose that the government runs a lottery financed through deficit spending. Whenever there is a winner, the government prints cash and hands it out.

Let’s imagine you win the lottery and head to your local bar to celebrate. When you get there, two things could happen:

You hand the bartender a wad of cash. He reciprocates by giving everyone in the bar a round of beer.
You hand the bartender a wad of cash. He reciprocates by raising prices and giving you one very expensive mug of beer.
The purpose of this story is to illustrate a simple point; we cannot start with a quantity of money and predict what will happen to prices. Instead, it’s only after we’ve seen the business reaction that we can say anything about inflation. This is the reality embedded in Milton Friedman’s favorite equation: MV = PT

Do you see the problem? Uncle Milton’s equation makes no predictions about inflation. It merely puts formal math to what we already know with words. If the quantity of money increases but we don’t sell more stuff, we know that prices must increase. But if the quantity of money increases and we do sell more stuff (in exactly the same proportion), then we know that nothing happens to prices. In short, the result of printing more money depends not on the money itself, but on the strategy pursued by business. .........

So despite what neoclassical economics claims, the reality is that businesses are constantly pursuing strategies of both breadth and depth. They try to sell more stuff. And they hedge their bets by also trying to raise prices. ........................

............... Let’s wrap things up. As a rule, your best bet for understanding the real world is to forget what you read in economics textbooks. Instead, pay attention to what the powerful say when they talk amongst themselves.

On that front, CEOs have been explicit that inflation isn’t some exogenous force, driven by the money supply. It’s a game that they actively play.

As a case in point, take William Meaney’s recent comments to investors. Meaney, the CEO of an information management company, claimed that he’s been ‘praying for inflation’ because it’s a good excuse to raise prices:
Where we’ve had inflation running at fairly rapid rates, we’re able to price ahead of inflation.
In other words, forget the money supply. Inflation is a business strategy.






Mauboussin: Capital Allocation
Results, Analysis, and Assessment



Quotes of the Week:


Powell: “We have more work to do.” “Where we’re missing is on the inflation side. And we’re missing by a lot.” “We do see a very, very strong labor market, one where we haven’t seen much softening; where job growth is very high; where wages are very high.” “I would say it’s our judgment today that we’re not at a sufficiently restrictive level yet…”

Powell: “We’ve been pretty aggressive,” he said at an event last month in Washington. “We wouldn’t... try to crash the economy and then clean up afterwards. I wouldn’t take that approach at all.”

BlanchflowerHere is a ready reckoner chair Powell on cpi inflation from 7.1% next 7 months we drop 6.4%.
0.3, 0.8, 0.9, 1.3, 0.6, 1.1, 1.4, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2, 0.4, -0.1 
based on last 5mths we will add 0.5%
So by June we should be at 1.2% so why raising?  Why have you missed this? 

Fibonacci Investing: So history has repeated the inverted yield curve many times. Betting on long bonds is NOT betting that the Fed will pivot or lower. It's exactly the opposite, the bet is that the Fed will keep rates too high for too long and crash future growth. That's the thesis for long bonds.

DealershipGuyThis morning I discovered something *extremely* alarming happening in the car market, specifically in auto lending. I'm now convinced that there is a massive wave of car repossessions coming in 2023. Here's what I discovered (and what no one knows):

Hou: Canonical neoclassical macroeconomics is a religion. There are fundamentalist movements from time to time. Depending on when you did your PhD, you’d be exposed to different mvmts that happen to be en vogue. If you were naïve, you’d think you were presented neutral knowledge

Field: Being generous, central banks have demonstrated they have no idea what they are doing (remember Bernanke said 98% of central banking is spewing BS narratives).  If they know what they are doing, not sure that is positive as they are driving global economy into a depression.



Charts: 
1:


...
...

... 



Bubble Fare:


....Bubble inflection points are typically marked by a reversal of speculative flows out of an asset class. After being inundated by flows during the pandemic (especially this year’s first nine months), the “private Credit” boom is suddenly jeopardized by (deferred) redemption requests. And with Blackstone and others limiting monthly/quarterly redemptions, remaining holders will fear being left holding the bag. Fund outflows require asset liquidations (i.e. commercial buildings and corporate loans), which is tantamount to tightening lending and financial conditions. Factor in tightening bank lending standards, and there’s reason to fear an accelerating downside to both the real estate Bubble and corporate lending boom. 

The ongoing crypto Bubble collapse should have us all fearful of the underbelly of “fintech,” “De-Fi” and BNPL (buy now, pay later). Carvana has imploded. NPR: “In a Year Marked by Inflation, 'Buy Now, Pay Later' is the Hottest Holiday Trend.” Hangover.

It took some time. The Credit cycle downturn has accelerated. There is ample justification for joining Moody’s in contemplating the “most pessimistic scenario”. Credit conditions are tightening after historic Credit and speculative Bubbles. Losses – stocks, crypto, options and other speculative trading – continue to mount, as households and businesses burn through their pandemic stimulus cash hoards. Rising rates and market yields are pressuring asset prices. The cost and Availability of Credit are increasingly contractionary. In short, the backdrop is set for a powerful reversal of speculative flows coupled with lender angst to usher in a most painful and destabilizing Credit down-cycle.

Is another crypto shoe about to drop? ......



(not just) for the ESG crowd:

The Arctic is getting rainier and seasons are shifting, with broad disturbances for people, ecosystems and wildlife




Sci Fare:

A new paper claims that intelligent aliens would only be interested in contacting the most technologically advanced planets, and Earth doesn't make the cut.





Other Fare:

A new animal-welfare law raises the bar for experimenting on decapod crustaceans.




Pics of the Week:

An almighty eruption, the cosmos remastered, swirling cells and more.