CANADA
average weekly earnings were reported last week as having risen just 1.8% YoY through February, down from 2.4%, continuing a steady slide since 2007Q1;
meanwhile, the average workweek of hourly paid employees remains low, at just 30.2
U.S.
UofM confidence up to 65 from 62 ("what do those students know, anyways?")
factory orders down 0.9% in March, more than expected, and February's rise was revised down to +0.7% from 1.8%
ISM manufacturing contracting but not as fast, up to 40.1 in April vs 36.3 in March
ISM prices paid component didn't rise as much as anticipated, still quite low at 32
total vehicle sales down to 9.3M for April
pending home sales were up 3.2% in March, better than the flat reading that was anticipated
construction spending, expected to have fallen a bit further after February's decline of 1%, was up 0.3% in March
ISM non-manufacturing, which was expected to rise to 42.2 from 40.8, did a bit better, climbing to 43.7, due largely to the new orders component rebounding to 47 from 39
INTERNATIONAL
Japan:
jobless rate rose more than expected, to 4.8% from 4.4%
household spending declined less than expected, down just 0.4% YoY
CPI fell 0.3% YoY through February, down from -0.1%
vehicle sales down 28.6% YoY
Europe:
U.K., Italian, French, German and Eurozone manufacturing PMIs all contracting at a slower pace, up to 42.9, 37.2, 40.1, 35.4 and 36.8, respectively (the last three were basically flat month-over-month)
German retail sales down 1% in March and therefore down 1.5% YoY
U.K. construction PMI rose to 38
Eurozone PPI down .7% MoM and 3.1% YoY
Spanish building permits were up in February, but remain down 60% YoY
Greek retail sales are down 13% YoY, and in Ireland, real retail sales (volumes) are down 21%
China:
the CLSA Manufacturing PMI has joined the government's official PMI measure above 50; the latter, which is weighted more heavily toward large state-owned enterprises, has been there for two months (53.5), but the CLSA measure's rise to 50.1 in April is the first expansion (however modest) in nine months, up from 44.8
Aussie:
the RBA left rates unchanged at 3%
Other:
LIBOR fell under 1%!
but U.S. commercial paper outstanding keeps falling, now as low as its been since 2004, driven largely by asset-backed CP, but even the non-ABCP CP is down to levels it was at in 2005
Baltic Dry has been fairly steady for last couple of weeks, but the Journal of Commerce industrial (smoothed) price commodity index has been steadily rising since December (though it has only gotten back to October levels and remains well below last spring's levels)
VIX is under 35
Showing posts with label data. Show all posts
Showing posts with label data. Show all posts
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Data - April 30
none of this will be market moving:
CANADA
February GDP came in as expected at -0.1% after January's drop of 0.7%
U.S.
personal income in March was down 0.3%
personal spending was down 0.2% MoM, but February was revised up to +0.4% from 0.2%
PCE Deflator was down to 0.6% YoY, but PCE Core stayed at 1.8% YoY, as expected
initial jobless claims fell to 631k from an upwardly-revised 645k
continuing claims rose more than expected to 6.27 million
INTERNATIONAL
Japanese industrial production was up 1.6% in March, but remains down 34% YoY; the Nomura/JMMA manufacturing PMI was up to 41 from 33.8 in April; construction orders down 38% YoY, vehicle production is down 50% YoY, housing starts down 21% YoY; the BoJ left rates unchanged at 0.10%
Germany's unemployment rate rose to 8.3% from 8.1%, while the Eurozone rate rose to 8.9% from an upwardly-revised 8.7%
Eurozone CPI was estimated at +0.6% YoY
U.K. consumer confidence survey rose a bit to -27 from -30, though house prices were down 0.4% during April and 15% YoY
French producer prices down 5.5% YoY
CANADA
February GDP came in as expected at -0.1% after January's drop of 0.7%
U.S.
personal income in March was down 0.3%
personal spending was down 0.2% MoM, but February was revised up to +0.4% from 0.2%
PCE Deflator was down to 0.6% YoY, but PCE Core stayed at 1.8% YoY, as expected
initial jobless claims fell to 631k from an upwardly-revised 645k
continuing claims rose more than expected to 6.27 million
INTERNATIONAL
Japanese industrial production was up 1.6% in March, but remains down 34% YoY; the Nomura/JMMA manufacturing PMI was up to 41 from 33.8 in April; construction orders down 38% YoY, vehicle production is down 50% YoY, housing starts down 21% YoY; the BoJ left rates unchanged at 0.10%
Germany's unemployment rate rose to 8.3% from 8.1%, while the Eurozone rate rose to 8.9% from an upwardly-revised 8.7%
Eurozone CPI was estimated at +0.6% YoY
U.K. consumer confidence survey rose a bit to -27 from -30, though house prices were down 0.4% during April and 15% YoY
French producer prices down 5.5% YoY
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Data - April 29
U.S.
FOMC statement at 2:15
I agree with the guy from Across the Curve:
FOMC statement at 2:15
I agree with the guy from Across the Curve:
I think that the Committee will genuflect in the direction of the signs of stability which have crept into the economy. In that regard the statement should be more upbeat than the previous one. I think that the improvement in the economy and in the financial markets precludes any extension (increase) in QE). I see no reason for the group to fire new bullets when conditions (albeit slightly) are improving. I think that they will reiterate that the funds rate will remain low for an extended period and that the risks of weakness outweigh chances of growth. They will also note their collective concern about too low a rate of inflation.
that said, if the Fed doesn't upsize their Treasury-buying program, we could see 10s push quickly through that 3% level its been bumping off
but first we got the BEA's advance estimate of Q1 GDP; the survey hoped it would rebound to about -4.7% at an annualized rate, from -6.3% in Q4, on positive personal consumption growth; the latter was correct, as personal consumption was up a more-than-expected 2.2%, but, nonetheless, GDP contracted at a 6.1% annualized rate, and is now down 2.6% over the last year, which matches the 1982 low, but is otherwise the worst YoY rate since 1958; nominal GDP fell 3.5% annualized in Q1 and is down 0.5% YoY, the first time its been negative since 1958;
PCE was up 0.3% in the quarter (despite spending on energy falling nearly 16%), contributing +1.5% to total GDP; but private domestic investment was down 17% in Q1, so its contribution to the change in total GDP was -8.8%; residential investment, non-res investment and inventories were all drags; for residential investment, it was the 13th straight quarter as a drag on growth, and had been anticipated to be less so over time, but its 12.4% fall in Q1 contributed negative 1.4% to the total GDP figure, which is as bad as in any of the previous 12 quarters; inventory adjustments contributed -2.8% to the headline GDP figure, while non-residential investment dragged 4.7%; net exports added nearly 2% to growth, as exports were down 11%, but imports were down 17%; government spending detracted modestly from growth, both at the federal and state/local level
keep in mind that these are the "advance" estimates; the "preliminary" estimates, based on more comprehensive data, will be released May 29
INTERNATIONAL
Eurozone M3 money supply fell in March, is basically flat over the last five months, and is down to a YoY growth rate of 5.1%, down from as much as 12.5% in 2007, though not yet to past recession lows of under 4%
Eurozone consumer confidence improved a bit to -31 (from -34)
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Data - April 28
CANADA
more Canadians are receiving unemployment benefits, up for the 6th straight month to 610k, up 7.8% MoM and 33% YoY; initial claims are up 62% YoY
BoC Governor Carney presents the MPR to the House Finance Committee
U.S.
S&P/Case-Shiller home price index for 20 major metropolitan markets declined 2.2% during February and is now down 18.6% YoY (vs -19% YoY through January), and is 30.7% lower than its 2006 peak
Consumer confidence recovered some ground to 39 in April, better than 5 of the previous 6 months --- but still lower than any other print in the history of the index since 1967
Richmond Fed Manufacturing index was also reported today, and, like everything else it seems, is less bad, at -9, up from -20 last month and as low as -55
INTERNATIONAL
French consumer confidence in April recovered a bit of ground to -41, but the business survey of overall demand fell to a new low, and French housing starts and building permits in March were off significantly (down 33.8% and 17.6%, respectively, in the last 3 months relative to the corresponding 3 months of the previous year)
German inflation continues to be modest, as CPI in April came in flat on the month and up just 0.7% YoY
Italian retail sales disappointed, down 3.1% YoY vs. expectations of -1.3%, but business confidence improved to 64.2 (relative to neutral level of 100)
Finnish unemployment jumped a half-percent more than expected, to 8.3% from 7.6%
Japanese retail trade fell a larger-than-expected 1.1% in March, though the YoY pace of decline was better than anticipated, moderating to -3.9%; small business confidence improved a tad to 30.8, off the January and February lows around 25 but still well below a neutral level of 50
Baltic Dry Index down again in the last couple of days (presumably on general risk aversion with the swine flu concerns) after 9 consecutive up days
LIBOR-OIS still gradually trending (very slowly) back towards normalcy, having drifted down over the last month from about 1% to 0.84%
Monday, April 27, 2009
Data - April 27
CANADA
nothing until GDP on Thursday
U.S.
just Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity
INTERNATIONAL
German import prices down 7.1% YoY
German consumer confidence in May unchanged from last month, but Italian consumer confidence was up
Hong Kong exports dwon 21% YoY through March, while imports down 22.7%
this evening, Japan retail trade data released
Bank of Israel will likely leave rates unchanged at 0.50%
nothing until GDP on Thursday
U.S.
just Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity
INTERNATIONAL
German import prices down 7.1% YoY
German consumer confidence in May unchanged from last month, but Italian consumer confidence was up
Hong Kong exports dwon 21% YoY through March, while imports down 22.7%
this evening, Japan retail trade data released
Bank of Israel will likely leave rates unchanged at 0.50%
Friday, April 24, 2009
Data - April 24
CANADA
no domestic data today
U.S.
durable goods orders, which were down 24% YoY through February, came in better than expected for March (down 0.8% MoM vs. -1.5% expected), largely because February's gain was revised down (to +2.1% from the original +3.4% reported); this was the 7th decrease in the last 8 months, so the YoY rate is now -25%; inventories continue to decrease, but not as fast as shipments, so the inventories-to-shipments ratio rose to 1.9; ex-transport orders, which were down 17% YoY through February, were -0.6% in March vs. -1.2% expected, after February was revised down from +3.9% to +2.0%; the YoY rate is now -20%; non-defense ex-aircraft capital goods orders were up 1.5%, after a 4.3% increase in February, but 12.3% decline in January and 5.9% decline in December, so the YoY rate is now -18.3%
new home sales were 356k in March, basically flat at February's upwardly-revised level of 358k (from 337k), (and up from January's revised low of 331k) down 31% in the last year and 74% from the 2005 peak
INTERNATIONAL
German IFO index, like ZEW previously, still contractionary, but not as badly, rising to 83.7 (business climate) from 82.1 (the current assessment and expectations components rose similarly)
U.K. GDP in Q1 was a little worse than expected, down 1.9% vs -1.5%, so the YoY rate is now -4.1%, despite retail sales having exceeded estimates (up in March, +1.5% YoY)
French consumer spending was up more than expected in March, so is back to positive territory on a YoY basis (+0.6%)
Spanish unemployment is now 17.4%
no domestic data today
U.S.
durable goods orders, which were down 24% YoY through February, came in better than expected for March (down 0.8% MoM vs. -1.5% expected), largely because February's gain was revised down (to +2.1% from the original +3.4% reported); this was the 7th decrease in the last 8 months, so the YoY rate is now -25%; inventories continue to decrease, but not as fast as shipments, so the inventories-to-shipments ratio rose to 1.9; ex-transport orders, which were down 17% YoY through February, were -0.6% in March vs. -1.2% expected, after February was revised down from +3.9% to +2.0%; the YoY rate is now -20%; non-defense ex-aircraft capital goods orders were up 1.5%, after a 4.3% increase in February, but 12.3% decline in January and 5.9% decline in December, so the YoY rate is now -18.3%
new home sales were 356k in March, basically flat at February's upwardly-revised level of 358k (from 337k), (and up from January's revised low of 331k) down 31% in the last year and 74% from the 2005 peak
INTERNATIONAL
German IFO index, like ZEW previously, still contractionary, but not as badly, rising to 83.7 (business climate) from 82.1 (the current assessment and expectations components rose similarly)
U.K. GDP in Q1 was a little worse than expected, down 1.9% vs -1.5%, so the YoY rate is now -4.1%, despite retail sales having exceeded estimates (up in March, +1.5% YoY)
French consumer spending was up more than expected in March, so is back to positive territory on a YoY basis (+0.6%)
Spanish unemployment is now 17.4%
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Data Watch - April 23
CANADA
retail sales, which were down 5.8% YoY through January, edged up 0.2% in February (vs. expectations of a 0.3% fall after a 1.8% rise in January, which followed terrible results in each month of Q4), so YoY is now -5.1%; ex-autos, they came in up 0.6%, vs. the survey's expectation of +0.2%; the February increases were price-driven, as total sales were down in volume terms (by 0.3% MoM and -3.2% YoY), so that will continue to drag on real GDP
but the real news of the day in Canada will come at 10:30 when the MPR gets released, and we'll get to see if there's any more in the works in terms of Q.E. or C.E. than what was already revealed on Tuesday (the increase in excess settlement balances to $3B and the extension of the terms of the PRAs to 6mth and 12mths)
U.S.
initial and continuing jobless claims climbed almost exactly as expected to to 640k and 6.137M, respectively
RPX house price index will be released at 9
existing home sales retreated more than expected in March to 4.57M (from 4.71 in February, but still up from the January low of 4.49); single-family homes were down 2.8%, while multi-family units were down 4.1%; the declines were broad-based regionally; sales are down 7.1% from a year ago and 37% from the peak level; the months' supply of unsold homes increased slightly to 9.8
INTERNATIONAL
April European PMIs still in contractionary territory, but improving; French Manufacturing up to 40 from 36.5, Services up to 46.2 from 43.6; Germany's showed same trends, but at lower levels of 35 (up from 32.4) and 43.5 (from 42.3), respectively; for total Eurozone, Manufacturing was up to 36.7 from 33.9, while Services was up to 43.1 from 40.9
European industrial new orders in February also did better than expected at a MoM level (down just 0.6%, with January's result revised to a better than previously estimated -2%), but the YoY rate deteriorated nonetheless, now down 34.5% vs. 34.3% last month
retail sales, which were down 5.8% YoY through January, edged up 0.2% in February (vs. expectations of a 0.3% fall after a 1.8% rise in January, which followed terrible results in each month of Q4), so YoY is now -5.1%; ex-autos, they came in up 0.6%, vs. the survey's expectation of +0.2%; the February increases were price-driven, as total sales were down in volume terms (by 0.3% MoM and -3.2% YoY), so that will continue to drag on real GDP
but the real news of the day in Canada will come at 10:30 when the MPR gets released, and we'll get to see if there's any more in the works in terms of Q.E. or C.E. than what was already revealed on Tuesday (the increase in excess settlement balances to $3B and the extension of the terms of the PRAs to 6mth and 12mths)
U.S.
initial and continuing jobless claims climbed almost exactly as expected to to 640k and 6.137M, respectively
RPX house price index will be released at 9
existing home sales retreated more than expected in March to 4.57M (from 4.71 in February, but still up from the January low of 4.49); single-family homes were down 2.8%, while multi-family units were down 4.1%; the declines were broad-based regionally; sales are down 7.1% from a year ago and 37% from the peak level; the months' supply of unsold homes increased slightly to 9.8
INTERNATIONAL
April European PMIs still in contractionary territory, but improving; French Manufacturing up to 40 from 36.5, Services up to 46.2 from 43.6; Germany's showed same trends, but at lower levels of 35 (up from 32.4) and 43.5 (from 42.3), respectively; for total Eurozone, Manufacturing was up to 36.7 from 33.9, while Services was up to 43.1 from 40.9
European industrial new orders in February also did better than expected at a MoM level (down just 0.6%, with January's result revised to a better than previously estimated -2%), but the YoY rate deteriorated nonetheless, now down 34.5% vs. 34.3% last month
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Data Watch - Earth Day (April 22)
generally quiet data day
CANADA
leading indicators fell much more than the expected 0.8% in March, declining 1.3%; furthermore, February was downwardly revised to -1.3% from a 1.1% decline; money supply continued to be the lone positive contributor; however a number of components slowed their pace of negative contributions, but were overwhelmed by the new orders component which, thanks to autos, deteriorated markedly; the index is now down 5.2% YoY and 6.1% from its August peak
retail sales and MPR tomorrow
U.S.
claims and existing home sales tomorrow; not much today
INTERNATIONAL
Alistair Darling is predicting a contraction in U.K. GDP of 3.5% this year, and a resumption of growth in 2010, though of just 1.25%, followed by 3.5% growth in 2011
jobless claims in England nearly halved to 74k in March from 137k, though the ILO unemployment rate increased as expected to 6.7% from 6.5%
Japan merchandise trade exports were down 46% YoY through March, a bit better than the -49% through February, while trade imports were down 37% YoY in March vs. 43% the previous month
China wholesale prices are down 6.6% YoY
CANADA
leading indicators fell much more than the expected 0.8% in March, declining 1.3%; furthermore, February was downwardly revised to -1.3% from a 1.1% decline; money supply continued to be the lone positive contributor; however a number of components slowed their pace of negative contributions, but were overwhelmed by the new orders component which, thanks to autos, deteriorated markedly; the index is now down 5.2% YoY and 6.1% from its August peak
retail sales and MPR tomorrow
U.S.
claims and existing home sales tomorrow; not much today
INTERNATIONAL
Alistair Darling is predicting a contraction in U.K. GDP of 3.5% this year, and a resumption of growth in 2010, though of just 1.25%, followed by 3.5% growth in 2011
jobless claims in England nearly halved to 74k in March from 137k, though the ILO unemployment rate increased as expected to 6.7% from 6.5%
Japan merchandise trade exports were down 46% YoY through March, a bit better than the -49% through February, while trade imports were down 37% YoY in March vs. 43% the previous month
China wholesale prices are down 6.6% YoY
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Data Watch - April 21
CANADA
Bank of Canada at 9 a.m.
February wholesales sales fell 0.6% MoM (despite an increase in the month in auto sales), versus expectations of a 1% rise; that's the 6th decline in 7 months, though January's -4.2% was revised upwards to -3.9%; the YoY rate is now -4.4%, vs. -5.2% in January; the inventory-to-sales ratio, which was at 1.22 in July, has climbed abruptly to 1.44, highest since 1995, due to both the drop in sales and an increase in inventories
U.S.
just earnings reports (plus Geithner testifying in front of Congressional Oversight Panel)
INTERNATIONAL
German producer prices fell a worse-than-expected 0.7% in March, dragging the YoY rate into negative territory (-0.5%); energy prices dominated, although there were price declines in other areas as well
German ZEW survey, which measures institutional investors' expectations of German economic growth in the next 6 months, was upbeat, rising out of negative territory for the first time since July 2007 to 13
English March CPI came in as expected, at 0.2% MoM and 2.9% YoY, though the core surprised to the upside (1.7% YoY vs 1.5% expected); this despite the fact that the retail price index fell into negative ground for the YoY (by the by, public sector pay in the U.K. is tied to the RPI, not CPI; RPI includes housing while CPI does not)
Swedish Riksbank cut its benchmark rate, as expected, to 0.5% from 1.0%
India dropped its benchmark interest rate, the repo rate, by a quarter to 4.75% and is predicting growth of just 6% this year
Bank of Canada at 9 a.m.
in the Bank's FAQ page on its website, it distinguishes between quantitative easing and credit easing as follows:
What is quantitative easing?
Quantitative easing is the purchase by a central bank of financial assets through creation of central bank reserves. As a result, the price of the purchased assets (which can include government securities or private assets) rises and the yield on the assets falls. The expansion of reserves available to commercial banks also encourages them to increase the supply of credit to households and businesses. In economic terminology, quantitative easing uses 'unsterilized' funding; in other words, the reserves of the central bank are increased to finance asset purchases.
What is credit easing?
Credit easing is the targeted purchase by a central bank of private sector assets in certain credit markets which are important to the functioning of the financial system. The goal of credit easing is to reduce risk premiums and improve liquidity and trading activity in specific markets so that credit will flow and demand in the economy will expand. Credit easing can be done on a 'sterilized' basis; in other words, there is no need to increase central bank reserves in order to undertake credit easing. If undertaken on an unsterilized basis, this amounts to combining credit easing with quantitative easing.
February wholesales sales fell 0.6% MoM (despite an increase in the month in auto sales), versus expectations of a 1% rise; that's the 6th decline in 7 months, though January's -4.2% was revised upwards to -3.9%; the YoY rate is now -4.4%, vs. -5.2% in January; the inventory-to-sales ratio, which was at 1.22 in July, has climbed abruptly to 1.44, highest since 1995, due to both the drop in sales and an increase in inventories
U.S.
just earnings reports (plus Geithner testifying in front of Congressional Oversight Panel)
INTERNATIONAL
German producer prices fell a worse-than-expected 0.7% in March, dragging the YoY rate into negative territory (-0.5%); energy prices dominated, although there were price declines in other areas as well
German ZEW survey, which measures institutional investors' expectations of German economic growth in the next 6 months, was upbeat, rising out of negative territory for the first time since July 2007 to 13
English March CPI came in as expected, at 0.2% MoM and 2.9% YoY, though the core surprised to the upside (1.7% YoY vs 1.5% expected); this despite the fact that the retail price index fell into negative ground for the YoY (by the by, public sector pay in the U.K. is tied to the RPI, not CPI; RPI includes housing while CPI does not)
Swedish Riksbank cut its benchmark rate, as expected, to 0.5% from 1.0%
India dropped its benchmark interest rate, the repo rate, by a quarter to 4.75% and is predicting growth of just 6% this year
Baltic Dry Index has been heading upwards again, up for 6 straight days
Monday, April 20, 2009
Data Watch - April 20
CANADA
just international securities transactions data today
tomorrow is of course the big day, but not because wholesale sales for February will be released at 8:30 (expected to be up 1% after January's 4.2% fall)
this will be the first BoC Tuesday in a while where there was much doubt about what the Bank might do; will it cut rates from 0.50 or not? (I guess that it will set a range, like the Fed did, but at a higher level, leaving the ceiling at 0.50, and establishing a floor of something greater than 0 but no more than 0.25); what will its QE plan look like? will it buy GoCs? CMBs? CP? ABS? corporate bonds? (I guess that it will buy just GoCs and let the federal government agencies like BDB, EDC and the Finance Ministry target certain areas of the market to alleviate lending conditions); and, will it announce just what it COULD do, or will it also say that it WILL do it, or even announce that it is starting it? we should find out some, if not all, of this at 9 a.m. Tuesday; anything we don't find out then will have to wait for the MPR on Thursday at 10:30; February's retail sales will also be announced that day (expected to be down 0.3% MoM on headline but up 0.2% ex-autos after larger gains in January off of a very weak 4th quarter).
US
UPDATE:
March leading indicators, which have been on a downward trend since July 2007, were released at 10a.m.; the Conference Board LEI declined 0.3% in March, more than the forecasted decline of 0.2%, though February's result was revised to be less bad; real money supply and the slope of the yield curve contributed positively again in March, but were overwhelmed by building permits, stock prices and supplier deliveries; the coincident index declined 0.4%, led down by employment and industrial production, and the lagging index also fell 0.4%, leaving the coincident-to-lagging ratio unchanged
the Chicago Fed National Activity Index declined in March to -2.96, though the 3-mth moving average increased to -3.27 from -3.57, as December's -3.84 dropped out of the M.A., and will likely improve again next month when January's -4.03 drops out; employment made the largest negative contribution to the index yet again, though production and income also made a large negative contribution; about the same number of indicators improved from February to March as worsened; just 13 of the 85 indicators provided positive contributions, while 72 made negative
its mostly a back-end loaded week; jobless claims, as usual, on Thursday; existing home sales that day as well, with durable goods orders and new home sales to be released on Friday
INTERNATIONAL
the Japanese leading index for February was finalized at 75.0, a tick lower than expected, and the lowest its been since 1983; the coincident index is at 86, not yet as low as it was in '93 (80), '98 (84) or '01 (also 84)
not much else to report out there (unless anyone cares that Pakistan surprisingly dropped its benchmark interest rate from 15% to 14%)
just international securities transactions data today
tomorrow is of course the big day, but not because wholesale sales for February will be released at 8:30 (expected to be up 1% after January's 4.2% fall)
this will be the first BoC Tuesday in a while where there was much doubt about what the Bank might do; will it cut rates from 0.50 or not? (I guess that it will set a range, like the Fed did, but at a higher level, leaving the ceiling at 0.50, and establishing a floor of something greater than 0 but no more than 0.25); what will its QE plan look like? will it buy GoCs? CMBs? CP? ABS? corporate bonds? (I guess that it will buy just GoCs and let the federal government agencies like BDB, EDC and the Finance Ministry target certain areas of the market to alleviate lending conditions); and, will it announce just what it COULD do, or will it also say that it WILL do it, or even announce that it is starting it? we should find out some, if not all, of this at 9 a.m. Tuesday; anything we don't find out then will have to wait for the MPR on Thursday at 10:30; February's retail sales will also be announced that day (expected to be down 0.3% MoM on headline but up 0.2% ex-autos after larger gains in January off of a very weak 4th quarter).
US
UPDATE:
March leading indicators, which have been on a downward trend since July 2007, were released at 10a.m.; the Conference Board LEI declined 0.3% in March, more than the forecasted decline of 0.2%, though February's result was revised to be less bad; real money supply and the slope of the yield curve contributed positively again in March, but were overwhelmed by building permits, stock prices and supplier deliveries; the coincident index declined 0.4%, led down by employment and industrial production, and the lagging index also fell 0.4%, leaving the coincident-to-lagging ratio unchanged
the Chicago Fed National Activity Index declined in March to -2.96, though the 3-mth moving average increased to -3.27 from -3.57, as December's -3.84 dropped out of the M.A., and will likely improve again next month when January's -4.03 drops out; employment made the largest negative contribution to the index yet again, though production and income also made a large negative contribution; about the same number of indicators improved from February to March as worsened; just 13 of the 85 indicators provided positive contributions, while 72 made negative
its mostly a back-end loaded week; jobless claims, as usual, on Thursday; existing home sales that day as well, with durable goods orders and new home sales to be released on Friday
INTERNATIONAL
the Japanese leading index for February was finalized at 75.0, a tick lower than expected, and the lowest its been since 1983; the coincident index is at 86, not yet as low as it was in '93 (80), '98 (84) or '01 (also 84)
not much else to report out there (unless anyone cares that Pakistan surprisingly dropped its benchmark interest rate from 15% to 14%)
Friday, April 17, 2009
1st and 2nd derivatives
This is a work in progress. I need to flesh this out some more, particularly with harder data on some of these points, and by adding more Canadian and international data as opposed to primarily U.S., and also need to juggle some points around (maybe new categories, like Terrible, but not worsening). But as a start at trying to identify which "green shoots" are really green and which are just not dying as fast:
Declining / Deteriorating
Industrial production --- down 13.3% since Dec. 2007
Capacity utilization --- under 70% (growing slack à no reason for capex)
Headline CPI --- down 0.4% YoY
Retail sales --- down 10.7% YoY, 11.6% real
Construction spending --- residential down 59% from peak; non-res down 9%
International trade
Foreclosures
Mortgage delinquencies --- OCC: under 90% of mortgages performing
House prices --- C-S down 30% from peak
Vacancies – personal --- houses; apartments 7.2%
Vacancies – commercial --- offices 15.2% (from 12.5%); malls 9.5% (from 7.7%)
Rents --- office rents in SF -24% YoY, Manhattan -6%
Initial Jobless Claims --- 4wk-M.A. 650+k
Continuing Jobless Claims --- 6+ mil
Payrolls --- -3.7% YoY; 5mil jobs lost (SA), 7mil (NSA) since peak
Unemployment --- U-3 8.5%; U-6 15.6% (both SA; 9.0% and 16.2% NSA)
Hours worked --- avg. wkly hrs 33.2; aggregate hrs worked index down 7% YoY
Credit card charge-offs
Bankruptcies
Mortgage Equity W/Ds
Federal tax receipts --- down 28% YoY (individuals down 27%, corporate -90%)
Industrial production --- down 13.3% since Dec. 2007
Capacity utilization --- under 70% (growing slack à no reason for capex)
Headline CPI --- down 0.4% YoY
Retail sales --- down 10.7% YoY, 11.6% real
Construction spending --- residential down 59% from peak; non-res down 9%
International trade
Foreclosures
Mortgage delinquencies --- OCC: under 90% of mortgages performing
House prices --- C-S down 30% from peak
Vacancies – personal --- houses; apartments 7.2%
Vacancies – commercial --- offices 15.2% (from 12.5%); malls 9.5% (from 7.7%)
Rents --- office rents in SF -24% YoY, Manhattan -6%
Initial Jobless Claims --- 4wk-M.A. 650+k
Continuing Jobless Claims --- 6+ mil
Payrolls --- -3.7% YoY; 5mil jobs lost (SA), 7mil (NSA) since peak
Unemployment --- U-3 8.5%; U-6 15.6% (both SA; 9.0% and 16.2% NSA)
Hours worked --- avg. wkly hrs 33.2; aggregate hrs worked index down 7% YoY
Credit card charge-offs
Bankruptcies
Mortgage Equity W/Ds
Federal tax receipts --- down 28% YoY (individuals down 27%, corporate -90%)
State and local tax receipts
Hotel occupancy rates --- 56% occupancy, down 10% from year ago
Vehicle miles driven --- down 3.6% YoY (biggest drop ever)
Leading economic indicators
NFIB small business optimism index
Hotel occupancy rates --- 56% occupancy, down 10% from year ago
Vehicle miles driven --- down 3.6% YoY (biggest drop ever)
Leading economic indicators
NFIB small business optimism index
Commercial real estate
Credit writedowns / loan losses --- IMF forecasts up to $4T; Mayo, Whitney, Roubini
Declining / Deteriorating, but not as fast
Core CPI --- up 1.8% YoY
Home builders index --- still very low, but not at record low
Housing starts and building permits
Credit writedowns / loan losses --- IMF forecasts up to $4T; Mayo, Whitney, Roubini
Declining / Deteriorating, but not as fast
Core CPI --- up 1.8% YoY
Home builders index --- still very low, but not at record low
Housing starts and building permits
ISM
Regional manufacturing surveys
L.A. port traffic
Baltic Dry index
VIX
Auto sales
New home sales
Existing home sales
Credit availability
Architecture billings index --- still very low, but not at record low
Restaurant performance index --- still very low, but not at record low
Not Declining / Deteriorating
Inflation expectations
TED spread
Corporate credit spreads
Pending home sales
Consumer confidence
Housing inventories
Improving Significantly
China lending and money supply
China auto sales
Mortgage rates
Baltic Dry index
VIX
Auto sales
New home sales
Existing home sales
Credit availability
Architecture billings index --- still very low, but not at record low
Restaurant performance index --- still very low, but not at record low
Not Declining / Deteriorating
Inflation expectations
TED spread
Corporate credit spreads
Pending home sales
Consumer confidence
Housing inventories
Improving Significantly
China lending and money supply
China auto sales
Mortgage rates
Data Watch - April 17
CANADA
as with the U.S. on Wednesday, today's Canadian inflation numbers for March came in a bit softer than expected on the headline but a bit higher than expected on the core; headline CPI was up 0.2% MoM versus the expectation of 0.3%, resulting in a YoY rate of 1.2% (versus 1.4%); the Bank of Canada's core CPI measure came in up 0.3% versus 0.2% expected for MoM, resulting in a tick up to the 2.0% target on the YoY rate; higher food and shelter costs (higher mortgage interest costs, up 4.2% YoY) were the two primary upward sources of headline inflation, while transportation costs were the biggest downward offset (gasoline prices down 21% YoY); excluding food, CPI has fallen 0.2% over the last year; on a seasonally-adjusted basis, CPI actually fell 0.3% during the month; excluding food and energy, the seasonally-adjusted monthly CPI was flat; regionally, consumer price rises were most pronounced in Ontario, thanks to rising vehicle insurance premiums
US
the only U.S. data today is UofM confidence
INTERNATIONAL
Japanese consumer confidence is up from the December low of 26.7, but not by quite as much as expected, coming in for March at 29.6
Tokyo department store sales are now down 12.9% YoY, while nationwide sales are down 13.1% YoY
Italian industrial orders are now down 32.7% YoY, a touch better than last month, while industrial sales have fallen further, to a low of -24% YoY
Eurozone construction output is down 11.8% YoY
as with the U.S. on Wednesday, today's Canadian inflation numbers for March came in a bit softer than expected on the headline but a bit higher than expected on the core; headline CPI was up 0.2% MoM versus the expectation of 0.3%, resulting in a YoY rate of 1.2% (versus 1.4%); the Bank of Canada's core CPI measure came in up 0.3% versus 0.2% expected for MoM, resulting in a tick up to the 2.0% target on the YoY rate; higher food and shelter costs (higher mortgage interest costs, up 4.2% YoY) were the two primary upward sources of headline inflation, while transportation costs were the biggest downward offset (gasoline prices down 21% YoY); excluding food, CPI has fallen 0.2% over the last year; on a seasonally-adjusted basis, CPI actually fell 0.3% during the month; excluding food and energy, the seasonally-adjusted monthly CPI was flat; regionally, consumer price rises were most pronounced in Ontario, thanks to rising vehicle insurance premiums
US
the only U.S. data today is UofM confidence
INTERNATIONAL
Japanese consumer confidence is up from the December low of 26.7, but not by quite as much as expected, coming in for March at 29.6
Tokyo department store sales are now down 12.9% YoY, while nationwide sales are down 13.1% YoY
Italian industrial orders are now down 32.7% YoY, a touch better than last month, while industrial sales have fallen further, to a low of -24% YoY
Eurozone construction output is down 11.8% YoY
Thursday, April 16, 2009
Data Watch - April 16
CANADA
manufacturing shipments bounced 2.2% higher in February from January's 5.3% drop, about as expected; the bounce was due to a rebound from the auto sector, as ex-autos shipments were down a modest 0.2%; total manufacturing sales remain down 14.5% YoY; the inventories-to-shipments ratio improved a bit from its 17-year high of 1.61x in January to 1.56x
CPI will be released Friday at 7
U.S.
housing starts and building permits were expected to retreat a bit after February's bounce, but not by as much as they did; in January, starts hit a low of 477k, then bounced to 583k, while permits hit a January low of 531k before regaining ground to 564k; they were both expected to come in for March in the 540-550k range, and given the NAHB's blip up yesterday, conjecture was that perhaps the risk was to the upside; not so, however, as starts fell to 510k and permits fell to a new low of 513k; single-family starts were stable, while the one-month decline was attributable to a 29% drop in multi-family units
its Thursday, so its jobless claims day; initial claims were at 654k last week, the 6th-straight week over 600k, but down from the March 27 high of 674k, and have now fallen further to 610k, versus the expectation of 660k; on the other hand, continuing claims continue to set new records (though not yet on a population-adjusted basis), now exceeding 6 million; having climbed to 5.84M last week, they were expected to be just under 5.9M this week, but rose to 6.02M; the shortened week for Easter may have had an impact on the initial claims number
after Empire made a bigger claw-back towards 0 than expected, having come in at -15 vs. the expectation of -35, it will be interesting to see if Philly does similarly; it was -35 in March and the survey says that -32 is what's expected for April
UPDATE: Philly Fed report revealed that the "region's manufacturing sector contracted less severely this month", as the index was -24, the 16th time in the last 17 months that the index was negative
INTERNATIONAL
Chinese Q1 GDP came in lower than expected, having fallen from 6.8% YoY to 6.1% YoY
Chinese inflation is underwater; the producer price index is down 6% YoY (further down from February's -4.5%), the consumer price index is down 1.2% YoY (better than February's -1.6%), and the purchasing price index is down 8.9% YoY (from -7.1% in February)
the good news is that Chinese retails sales remain robust, up 14.7% YoY, as expected, and better than at the end of February (11.6%) though down from the peaks of about 23%
and though Chinese industrial production YTD was worse than expected, up just 5.1% YoY, for the full trailing year its up a more-than-expected 8.3% YoY (though that's down from 11% at the end of December)
Japanese machine tool orders still down 85% YoY through March
Eurozone CPI was up 0.4% MoM and 0.6% YoY, while core CPI is up 1.5% YoY
Eurozone industrial production was down 2.3% MoM in February (January was revised up a bit from -3.5% to -2.4%), and YoY its now down a bit-worse-than-expected 18.4%
manufacturing shipments bounced 2.2% higher in February from January's 5.3% drop, about as expected; the bounce was due to a rebound from the auto sector, as ex-autos shipments were down a modest 0.2%; total manufacturing sales remain down 14.5% YoY; the inventories-to-shipments ratio improved a bit from its 17-year high of 1.61x in January to 1.56x
CPI will be released Friday at 7
U.S.
housing starts and building permits were expected to retreat a bit after February's bounce, but not by as much as they did; in January, starts hit a low of 477k, then bounced to 583k, while permits hit a January low of 531k before regaining ground to 564k; they were both expected to come in for March in the 540-550k range, and given the NAHB's blip up yesterday, conjecture was that perhaps the risk was to the upside; not so, however, as starts fell to 510k and permits fell to a new low of 513k; single-family starts were stable, while the one-month decline was attributable to a 29% drop in multi-family units
its Thursday, so its jobless claims day; initial claims were at 654k last week, the 6th-straight week over 600k, but down from the March 27 high of 674k, and have now fallen further to 610k, versus the expectation of 660k; on the other hand, continuing claims continue to set new records (though not yet on a population-adjusted basis), now exceeding 6 million; having climbed to 5.84M last week, they were expected to be just under 5.9M this week, but rose to 6.02M; the shortened week for Easter may have had an impact on the initial claims number
after Empire made a bigger claw-back towards 0 than expected, having come in at -15 vs. the expectation of -35, it will be interesting to see if Philly does similarly; it was -35 in March and the survey says that -32 is what's expected for April
UPDATE: Philly Fed report revealed that the "region's manufacturing sector contracted less severely this month", as the index was -24, the 16th time in the last 17 months that the index was negative
INTERNATIONAL
Chinese Q1 GDP came in lower than expected, having fallen from 6.8% YoY to 6.1% YoY
Chinese inflation is underwater; the producer price index is down 6% YoY (further down from February's -4.5%), the consumer price index is down 1.2% YoY (better than February's -1.6%), and the purchasing price index is down 8.9% YoY (from -7.1% in February)
the good news is that Chinese retails sales remain robust, up 14.7% YoY, as expected, and better than at the end of February (11.6%) though down from the peaks of about 23%
and though Chinese industrial production YTD was worse than expected, up just 5.1% YoY, for the full trailing year its up a more-than-expected 8.3% YoY (though that's down from 11% at the end of December)
Japanese machine tool orders still down 85% YoY through March
Eurozone CPI was up 0.4% MoM and 0.6% YoY, while core CPI is up 1.5% YoY
Eurozone industrial production was down 2.3% MoM in February (January was revised up a bit from -3.5% to -2.4%), and YoY its now down a bit-worse-than-expected 18.4%
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Data Watch - April 15
CANADA
- first and foremost, NHL playoffs start this evening
- new vehicle sales is the only data released today, and it dropped 2.2% as expected, while January's advance was pared back by 1%; now down 24% YoY
US
- lots of American data released today, headlined by CPI
- headline and core CPI were each expected to rise 0.1% MoM for March, but core came in higher, at 0.2%, while headline came in lower, at -0.1%; that resulted in YoY rates of inflation of 1.8% ex-food and energy and -0.4% total (it fell as low as 0.0% YoY in January but climbed back to +0.2% in February; this is the first its been negative since 1955)
- Empire Manufacturing was expected to improve a bit from March's low of -38 to -35, but did much better than that, rebounding to -15, the best its been since September
- industrial production, which fell 1.5% in February, fell more than the expected 0.9% in March, declining another 1.5%; it is now down 12.8% YoY, resulting in capacity utilization falling to 69.3% (below 70% for the first time since the series started in 1967)
- the NAHB housing market index, which hit a low of 8 in January and climbed a notch to 9 in February is expected to regain one more point to 10
- Fed Beige Book will be released at 2pm
UPDATE: NAHB exceeded expectations, climbing a whopping 5 pts to 14 (which would still be the lowest data-point in the series history back to 1985 other than the recent November to March period); Beige Book was reasonably mixed
INTERNATIONAL
- ECB member Axel Weber says he's adamantly opposed to reducing the main refinancing rate below 1%, and says he sees no risk of deflation
- German wholesale prices fell more than expected in March, now down 8% YoY (but Weber sees no risk of deflation)
- UK house prices are now down 12% YoY (but Weber sees no risk of deflation)
- Japanese industrial production was down 9.4% in February and 38.4% over the last year
- Toyko condo sales are down 46% YoY
OTHER
- TED spread still hanging steady around 0.95, a level its hovered around for 3 months
- the VIX has been below 40 for 4 straight days now, which hasn't happened since September
- the Baltic Dry Index, which had fallen for 21 straight days, has now risen modestly the last 2
- first and foremost, NHL playoffs start this evening
- new vehicle sales is the only data released today, and it dropped 2.2% as expected, while January's advance was pared back by 1%; now down 24% YoY
US
- lots of American data released today, headlined by CPI
- headline and core CPI were each expected to rise 0.1% MoM for March, but core came in higher, at 0.2%, while headline came in lower, at -0.1%; that resulted in YoY rates of inflation of 1.8% ex-food and energy and -0.4% total (it fell as low as 0.0% YoY in January but climbed back to +0.2% in February; this is the first its been negative since 1955)
- Empire Manufacturing was expected to improve a bit from March's low of -38 to -35, but did much better than that, rebounding to -15, the best its been since September
- industrial production, which fell 1.5% in February, fell more than the expected 0.9% in March, declining another 1.5%; it is now down 12.8% YoY, resulting in capacity utilization falling to 69.3% (below 70% for the first time since the series started in 1967)
- the NAHB housing market index, which hit a low of 8 in January and climbed a notch to 9 in February is expected to regain one more point to 10
- Fed Beige Book will be released at 2pm
UPDATE: NAHB exceeded expectations, climbing a whopping 5 pts to 14 (which would still be the lowest data-point in the series history back to 1985 other than the recent November to March period); Beige Book was reasonably mixed
INTERNATIONAL
- ECB member Axel Weber says he's adamantly opposed to reducing the main refinancing rate below 1%, and says he sees no risk of deflation
- German wholesale prices fell more than expected in March, now down 8% YoY (but Weber sees no risk of deflation)
- UK house prices are now down 12% YoY (but Weber sees no risk of deflation)
- Japanese industrial production was down 9.4% in February and 38.4% over the last year
- Toyko condo sales are down 46% YoY
OTHER
- TED spread still hanging steady around 0.95, a level its hovered around for 3 months
- the VIX has been below 40 for 4 straight days now, which hasn't happened since September
- the Baltic Dry Index, which had fallen for 21 straight days, has now risen modestly the last 2
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Data Watch - April 14
CANADA
Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey (BOS) and Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOS) were released on Easter Monday, and confirm the theme of second-derivative improvement but with still-negative first-derivatives (i.e. things are still getting worse, but at a slower pace).
The BOS diffusion index on future sales expectations improved from -34 last quarter to -22 in Q1, which remains the 2nd-worst reading since the series began in 1998. Most other indices showed similar improvements off Q4's all-time lows, but remain well in contraction territory. Economic slack appears to have intensified. And, most notably, inflation expectations are getting further pared back, with 41% of firms now expecting inflation in the next 12 months to be below 1%. As for the SLOS, there was marginal improvement in credit conditions from both the demand and the supply side, though improvements were entirely in availability of credit, while the price side was worse (i.e. wider spreads).
no data releases Tuesday; later this week we get vehicle sales (Wed), manufacturing shipments (Thurs) and CPI (Friday)
US
PPI and retail sales were released at 8:30;
headline PPI was expected to be -2.2% YoY while ex-food and energy was expected to be +4.0%, but they came in softer than expected at -3.5% and 3.8%, respectively; those numbers are for finished goods; intermediate goods are down 8.9% YoY, while crude goods are down 39% YoY
retail sales came in weaker than expected (see Calculated Risk's post for charts); advance retail sales were expected to be up 0.3% MoM in March, and flat excluding autos, but came in at -1.1% on the headline and -0.9% less autos; auto sales volume increased, but price discounting dominated the volume effect; spending in almost every category declined, with the exception of food; part of the MoM disappointment, however, was due to upward revisions to February's data; nonetheless, retail sales are now down 10.7% in the last year (retail and food service sales down 9.4%; retail sales ex-autos -6.0%)
INTERNATIONAL
nada
UPDATE:
Singapore's economy plunged 19.7% annualized in the first quarter, and 11.5% over the last year
Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey (BOS) and Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOS) were released on Easter Monday, and confirm the theme of second-derivative improvement but with still-negative first-derivatives (i.e. things are still getting worse, but at a slower pace).
The BOS diffusion index on future sales expectations improved from -34 last quarter to -22 in Q1, which remains the 2nd-worst reading since the series began in 1998. Most other indices showed similar improvements off Q4's all-time lows, but remain well in contraction territory. Economic slack appears to have intensified. And, most notably, inflation expectations are getting further pared back, with 41% of firms now expecting inflation in the next 12 months to be below 1%. As for the SLOS, there was marginal improvement in credit conditions from both the demand and the supply side, though improvements were entirely in availability of credit, while the price side was worse (i.e. wider spreads).
no data releases Tuesday; later this week we get vehicle sales (Wed), manufacturing shipments (Thurs) and CPI (Friday)
US
PPI and retail sales were released at 8:30;
headline PPI was expected to be -2.2% YoY while ex-food and energy was expected to be +4.0%, but they came in softer than expected at -3.5% and 3.8%, respectively; those numbers are for finished goods; intermediate goods are down 8.9% YoY, while crude goods are down 39% YoY
retail sales came in weaker than expected (see Calculated Risk's post for charts); advance retail sales were expected to be up 0.3% MoM in March, and flat excluding autos, but came in at -1.1% on the headline and -0.9% less autos; auto sales volume increased, but price discounting dominated the volume effect; spending in almost every category declined, with the exception of food; part of the MoM disappointment, however, was due to upward revisions to February's data; nonetheless, retail sales are now down 10.7% in the last year (retail and food service sales down 9.4%; retail sales ex-autos -6.0%)
INTERNATIONAL
nada
UPDATE:
Singapore's economy plunged 19.7% annualized in the first quarter, and 11.5% over the last year
Thursday, April 9, 2009
Data Watch - Easter Thursday, uhh, Masters!
CANADA
- jobs data disappoints, falling 61k in March versus expectations of a drop of 50k; the net loss of jobs since employment peaked last October is now 357k; the drop in full-time employment has been more severe, at 409k; full-time employment fell about 80k while part-time reclaimed part of that loss, up about 20k
- unemployment rate, as expected, climbed to 8.0% from 7.7% last month and from the cyclical low of 5.8%; it was briefly this high at the start of 2002, but otherwise it was last higher than 8% throughout the 90s
- the employment rate has fallen from 65% to under 62%; admittedly, a lot of the drop is due to seasonality; usually the rate peaks in June and troughs in January, before resuming its climb back to June; but this is the first year since 1991 in which January did not mark the trough, as employment has fallen further in both February and March
- average hourly wages were flat on the month but up to 4.1% YoY; however, as in the U.S., though wages are holding steady per hour for those still working, there are fewer people working fewer hours, so incomes are down
- the February trade balance was slightly positive, relative to expectations of a small trade deficit consistent with last month
- new home prices fell for the fifth straight month, down 0.7% MoM in February
U.S.
- initial jobless claims held pretty steady, at 654k; the 4-week moving average held steady at 657k; continuing claims continued its steady climb to 5.84M
- the U.S. trade deficit continues to fall quickly, down to $26B in February versus expectations of a steady result matching January's -$36B, despite higher oil prices during the month --- exports were up modestly, up 1% MoM, while imports fell significantly, down 5.1% MoM; exports are now down 17% YoY while imports are down 29% YoY
- chain store sales later today
INTERNATIONAL
- Japan machine tool orders are down 85% YoY, but at least machinery orders were down just 30% YoY, up from -40% in February and not as bad as the -37% expectation
- German CPI is up 0.5% YoY
- Italian industrial production down 24% YoY, while Germany's is down 21% YoY
- the BoE held rates steady at 0.50%, but reaffirmed their commitment to quantitiative easing, both in terms of the size of the program and the pace - 10yr gilts are holding in on the reaffirmation, but have nonetheless given up most of the gains they achieved right after Q.E. was first announced (10yrs fell from a yield of 3.65 to 2.95 and are now 3.35)
- aside: could the BoE's approach be the route the BoC takes in a few weeks? I anticipate that they will declare the current rate of 0.50% the ceiling, but will allow themselves flexibility on an intra-meeting basis to allow the rate to fluctuate between 0 and 0.5 (i.e. much like the Fed's 0 to 0.25, but with a higher range), while initiating a modest Q.E. program; my guess is that the Bank will not go the Fed-route of credit easing by intentionally targeting specific areas of the credit markets, but will instead stick to buying GoC debt, and will prefer to leave credit allocation decisions to the free markets, with some help from fiscal authorities (through the EDC, BDB, the mortgage-buying program, etc.)
OTHER
- TED spread holding steady around 0.95, where its been since mid-January, much better than the 4.60 peak in October, though of course not back to the 0.25-0.30 range that predated the crisis
- the Baltic Dry Index has fallen now for 21 straight days; it remains 120% above its December low, but now down 36% in the last month and 88% from its peak last May
- the VIX fell below 40 yesterday (38.85), for only the third time since Jan. 6
- OECD leading indicators will be updated tomorrow
- Tiger tees off at 1:52
- jobs data disappoints, falling 61k in March versus expectations of a drop of 50k; the net loss of jobs since employment peaked last October is now 357k; the drop in full-time employment has been more severe, at 409k; full-time employment fell about 80k while part-time reclaimed part of that loss, up about 20k
- unemployment rate, as expected, climbed to 8.0% from 7.7% last month and from the cyclical low of 5.8%; it was briefly this high at the start of 2002, but otherwise it was last higher than 8% throughout the 90s
- the employment rate has fallen from 65% to under 62%; admittedly, a lot of the drop is due to seasonality; usually the rate peaks in June and troughs in January, before resuming its climb back to June; but this is the first year since 1991 in which January did not mark the trough, as employment has fallen further in both February and March
- average hourly wages were flat on the month but up to 4.1% YoY; however, as in the U.S., though wages are holding steady per hour for those still working, there are fewer people working fewer hours, so incomes are down
- the February trade balance was slightly positive, relative to expectations of a small trade deficit consistent with last month
- new home prices fell for the fifth straight month, down 0.7% MoM in February
U.S.
- initial jobless claims held pretty steady, at 654k; the 4-week moving average held steady at 657k; continuing claims continued its steady climb to 5.84M
- the U.S. trade deficit continues to fall quickly, down to $26B in February versus expectations of a steady result matching January's -$36B, despite higher oil prices during the month --- exports were up modestly, up 1% MoM, while imports fell significantly, down 5.1% MoM; exports are now down 17% YoY while imports are down 29% YoY
- chain store sales later today
INTERNATIONAL
- Japan machine tool orders are down 85% YoY, but at least machinery orders were down just 30% YoY, up from -40% in February and not as bad as the -37% expectation
- German CPI is up 0.5% YoY
- Italian industrial production down 24% YoY, while Germany's is down 21% YoY
- the BoE held rates steady at 0.50%, but reaffirmed their commitment to quantitiative easing, both in terms of the size of the program and the pace - 10yr gilts are holding in on the reaffirmation, but have nonetheless given up most of the gains they achieved right after Q.E. was first announced (10yrs fell from a yield of 3.65 to 2.95 and are now 3.35)
- aside: could the BoE's approach be the route the BoC takes in a few weeks? I anticipate that they will declare the current rate of 0.50% the ceiling, but will allow themselves flexibility on an intra-meeting basis to allow the rate to fluctuate between 0 and 0.5 (i.e. much like the Fed's 0 to 0.25, but with a higher range), while initiating a modest Q.E. program; my guess is that the Bank will not go the Fed-route of credit easing by intentionally targeting specific areas of the credit markets, but will instead stick to buying GoC debt, and will prefer to leave credit allocation decisions to the free markets, with some help from fiscal authorities (through the EDC, BDB, the mortgage-buying program, etc.)
OTHER
- TED spread holding steady around 0.95, where its been since mid-January, much better than the 4.60 peak in October, though of course not back to the 0.25-0.30 range that predated the crisis
- the Baltic Dry Index has fallen now for 21 straight days; it remains 120% above its December low, but now down 36% in the last month and 88% from its peak last May
- the VIX fell below 40 yesterday (38.85), for only the third time since Jan. 6
- OECD leading indicators will be updated tomorrow
- Tiger tees off at 1:52
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
Data Watch - April 2 - April 8
I haven't done one of these in a while, so I'll quickly summarize the most notable economic data releases for the G7 from the last week:
CANADA
not a lot of Canadian data recently
- on Monday, building permits were down nearly 16% MoM in February, and January's stats were revised down to -6% from -4.6%
- Ivey PMI came in down 2 points to 43.2 in March from 45.2 in February, vs. expectations of a rebound to 47.0, with indications of further inventory building
- housing starts surprised to the upside by increasing in March to 154.7k from 136.1, the first increase in 7 months; the increase was driven by multiple units in Ontario and Quebec (single-family housing starts were basically unchanged; all other provinces saw declines)
- jobs data will be released at 7 a.m. tomorrow
U.S.
- pending home sales increased 2.1% in February, off of a 7.7% fall in January
- initial jobless claims hit a new cycle high of 669k while continuing claims surged to a new record high of 5728k
- factory orders rose more than expected, up 1.8% in February, but the previous month's result was revised down to -3.5% from -1.9%
- nonfarm payrolls came in almost right on expectations, at -663k; there was no revision to February, but January was revised significantly to -741k, the biggest one-month fall since 1949
- the unemployment rate jumped up to 8.5% from 8.1%, while the broadest measure of unemployment, the U-6 rate, climbed to 15.6%
- average hourly earnings held steady for those employed, up 3.4% YoY, but, problem is, not only are so many fewer people employed, those who are still working are working less; average weekly hours continued to fall, now down to record low 33.2
- ISM Non-Manufacturing index fell unexpectedly to 40.8 from 41.6
- consumer credit data for February proved very volatile; a fall of $3 billion was expected but the decline came in at -$7.5B instead; this, however, was off of a significantly revised increase in January, which was initially recorded as an increase of $1.8B but was revised to $8.1B; so, for the two months, credit retrenchment was a bit less than expected
- the Fed released the minutes of its March 17-18 meeting, at which time it announced the initiation of its quantitative easing program; not terribly surprisingly, given how slow the FOMC's members have been all along to appreciate the downside risks, the minutes revealed that "nearly all meeting participants said that conditions had deteriorated relative to their expectation at the time of the January meeting"; Fed staff now think real GDP will flatten out gradually over 2009H2 and then expand slowly in 2010 which backs away from expectations for a 2009H2 recovery
INTERNATIONAL
- UK Nationwide housing prices down 15.7% YoY, not as bad as feared
- French producer prices down 4.5% YoY, worse than feared
- the ECB continued its policy of staying behind the curve, as it cut rates to 1.25% instead of the 1.00% that the market had anticipated
- the German import price index declined in February, now -6.4% YoY
- Italian, German and French PMIs for services weren't quite as weak as expected, rebounding a bit in March to 39.1, 42.3 and 43.6, respectively, though all still well below 50, while the Eurozone Services PMI came in at 40.9 and UK's at 45.5
- Japanese leading and coincident indices stayed pretty steady at 75.2 and 86.8, respectively, the former the lowest its been since 1983
- the Bank of Japan left its rate unchanged at 0.10%
- Eurozone retail sales have fallen 4.0% over the last year, worse than anticipated
- UK industrial production is down 12.5% YoY, while manufacturing production is down 13.8% in that time
- Eurozone Q4 GDP was marked a bit lower, down 1.5% YoY vs the previous estimate of -1.3%
- in China, the state agency said that its Manufacturing PMI rebounded back above 50 to 52.4 in March; but, meanwhile, an independent assesment showed that manufacturing had shrunk for an 8th straight month, as the CLSA PMI shrank to 44.8 from 45.1
CANADA
not a lot of Canadian data recently
- on Monday, building permits were down nearly 16% MoM in February, and January's stats were revised down to -6% from -4.6%
- Ivey PMI came in down 2 points to 43.2 in March from 45.2 in February, vs. expectations of a rebound to 47.0, with indications of further inventory building
- housing starts surprised to the upside by increasing in March to 154.7k from 136.1, the first increase in 7 months; the increase was driven by multiple units in Ontario and Quebec (single-family housing starts were basically unchanged; all other provinces saw declines)
- jobs data will be released at 7 a.m. tomorrow
U.S.
- pending home sales increased 2.1% in February, off of a 7.7% fall in January
- initial jobless claims hit a new cycle high of 669k while continuing claims surged to a new record high of 5728k
- factory orders rose more than expected, up 1.8% in February, but the previous month's result was revised down to -3.5% from -1.9%
- nonfarm payrolls came in almost right on expectations, at -663k; there was no revision to February, but January was revised significantly to -741k, the biggest one-month fall since 1949
- the unemployment rate jumped up to 8.5% from 8.1%, while the broadest measure of unemployment, the U-6 rate, climbed to 15.6%
- average hourly earnings held steady for those employed, up 3.4% YoY, but, problem is, not only are so many fewer people employed, those who are still working are working less; average weekly hours continued to fall, now down to record low 33.2
- ISM Non-Manufacturing index fell unexpectedly to 40.8 from 41.6
- consumer credit data for February proved very volatile; a fall of $3 billion was expected but the decline came in at -$7.5B instead; this, however, was off of a significantly revised increase in January, which was initially recorded as an increase of $1.8B but was revised to $8.1B; so, for the two months, credit retrenchment was a bit less than expected
- the Fed released the minutes of its March 17-18 meeting, at which time it announced the initiation of its quantitative easing program; not terribly surprisingly, given how slow the FOMC's members have been all along to appreciate the downside risks, the minutes revealed that "nearly all meeting participants said that conditions had deteriorated relative to their expectation at the time of the January meeting"; Fed staff now think real GDP will flatten out gradually over 2009H2 and then expand slowly in 2010 which backs away from expectations for a 2009H2 recovery
INTERNATIONAL
- UK Nationwide housing prices down 15.7% YoY, not as bad as feared
- French producer prices down 4.5% YoY, worse than feared
- the ECB continued its policy of staying behind the curve, as it cut rates to 1.25% instead of the 1.00% that the market had anticipated
- the German import price index declined in February, now -6.4% YoY
- Italian, German and French PMIs for services weren't quite as weak as expected, rebounding a bit in March to 39.1, 42.3 and 43.6, respectively, though all still well below 50, while the Eurozone Services PMI came in at 40.9 and UK's at 45.5
- Japanese leading and coincident indices stayed pretty steady at 75.2 and 86.8, respectively, the former the lowest its been since 1983
- the Bank of Japan left its rate unchanged at 0.10%
- Eurozone retail sales have fallen 4.0% over the last year, worse than anticipated
- UK industrial production is down 12.5% YoY, while manufacturing production is down 13.8% in that time
- Eurozone Q4 GDP was marked a bit lower, down 1.5% YoY vs the previous estimate of -1.3%
- in China, the state agency said that its Manufacturing PMI rebounded back above 50 to 52.4 in March; but, meanwhile, an independent assesment showed that manufacturing had shrunk for an 8th straight month, as the CLSA PMI shrank to 44.8 from 45.1
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Data Watch - April Fools' Day
CANADA
US
- ADP hit new low of -742k in March, down from revised level of -706k in February; Challenger job cuts also surged; Friday's non-farm payrolls report is expected to reveal job losses of about 658k in March, though some economists, including David Rosenberg and Joe LaVorgna, are pencilling in a forecast of -750k
- ISM Manufacturing, as expected, stayed steady at about 36
- construction spending and pending home sales also due today, as well as vehicle sales for March
- Fed has bought $17.5B of Treasuries so far in its $300B QE program; the fourth round of buying will be tomorrow, when it purchases notes maturing from 2013 through 2016
INTERNATIONAL
Japan
- Tankan Large Manufacturers Index fell in Q1 to a new record low of -58 and the outlook index to -51; the Non-Manufacturing Index fell to -31, still above the lows in 1998 and 1994
- vehicle sales are down 31.5% YoY
Europe
- German retail sales down 5.3% YoY
- Italian, French, German and Eurozone manufacturing PMIs all stayed relatively steady in March relative to February levels in the low to mid 30s; the UK PMI rebounded to 39.1
- Eurozone unemployment rate rose to 8.5% (it peaked at 9.1% in 2005 and got to as low as 7.2% a year ago)
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Data Watch - March 30th & 31st
OECD and World Bank revised forecasts
- OECD's new forecast is for member countries to contract 4.3% this year, down from its earlier forecast of -0.3% (2009 forecasts for Japan -6.6%, euro area -4.1%, U.S. -4.0%)
- World Bank's new forecast for global growth is down to -1.7%, down 2.6% from its last forecast, while its forecast for developing countries was marked down to 2.1%, from 4.4%
CANADA
- GDP for January came in as expected at -0.7% MoM after -1.0% MoM in December and -0.7% in November
- StatsCan released its payroll employment report for January; payroll employment decreased 117,000 in January, the largest drop since 1991; average weekly earnings have increased 3.2% in the last year
US
- Case/Shiller home prices for January were a bit lower than expected; for the Composite-20 index, home prices are down 19% YoY and down 29% from the peak
- Chicago PMI, the last major regional report before ISM, weakened to 31.4; the regional surveys have sent mixed signals
- Consumer confidence rebounded slightly to 26.0 from the 25.3 record low in February, not as big a bounce as had been hoped for; the present situation components continued to deteriorate, but the 6-mth forward expectations improved a bit; employment prospects worsened, and plans to buy a house, car or major appliance were scaled back
INTERNATIONAL
Japan
- vehicle production was down 56% YoY
- industrial production was down 9% in February and 38% YoY
- household spending was down 3.5% YoY, better than the -4.7% expected
- housing starts down 24.9% YoY
- construction orders also down 24.9% YoY
- Nomura/JMMA purchasing managers index better than expected, up to 33.8
Europe
- Eurozone economic confidence for March fell to 64.6, consumer confidence also fell further to -34, industrial confidence fell to -38, and services confidence to -25, all new lows since the series started in 1988
- Eurozone retail PMI, however, rebounded off lows of 40.6 in November to 44.1
- German unemployment in March increased more than expected; the unemployment rate climbed to 8.1%
- Eurozone CPI was 0.6% YoY, down from 1.2% in February
- OECD's new forecast is for member countries to contract 4.3% this year, down from its earlier forecast of -0.3% (2009 forecasts for Japan -6.6%, euro area -4.1%, U.S. -4.0%)
- World Bank's new forecast for global growth is down to -1.7%, down 2.6% from its last forecast, while its forecast for developing countries was marked down to 2.1%, from 4.4%
CANADA
- GDP for January came in as expected at -0.7% MoM after -1.0% MoM in December and -0.7% in November
- StatsCan released its payroll employment report for January; payroll employment decreased 117,000 in January, the largest drop since 1991; average weekly earnings have increased 3.2% in the last year
US
- Case/Shiller home prices for January were a bit lower than expected; for the Composite-20 index, home prices are down 19% YoY and down 29% from the peak
- Chicago PMI, the last major regional report before ISM, weakened to 31.4; the regional surveys have sent mixed signals
- Consumer confidence rebounded slightly to 26.0 from the 25.3 record low in February, not as big a bounce as had been hoped for; the present situation components continued to deteriorate, but the 6-mth forward expectations improved a bit; employment prospects worsened, and plans to buy a house, car or major appliance were scaled back
INTERNATIONAL
Japan
- vehicle production was down 56% YoY
- industrial production was down 9% in February and 38% YoY
- household spending was down 3.5% YoY, better than the -4.7% expected
- housing starts down 24.9% YoY
- construction orders also down 24.9% YoY
- Nomura/JMMA purchasing managers index better than expected, up to 33.8
Europe
- Eurozone economic confidence for March fell to 64.6, consumer confidence also fell further to -34, industrial confidence fell to -38, and services confidence to -25, all new lows since the series started in 1988
- Eurozone retail PMI, however, rebounded off lows of 40.6 in November to 44.1
- German unemployment in March increased more than expected; the unemployment rate climbed to 8.1%
- Eurozone CPI was 0.6% YoY, down from 1.2% in February
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Data Watch - March 25th and 26th
CANADA
yesterday, the Teranet-National Bank national home price index fell 1.6% in January, now down 2.4% YoY and 5.5% from the peak
US
new home sales were up slightly in February to 337k, with upward revisions to both January and December; inventories fell by 2.9% and 30% from a year-ago, but months' supply remains very elevated at 12.2 due to the low pace of sales, less than one-quarter of the 1.4M peak and one-half of normal sales activity
durable goods surprised with a gain of 3.4% in February, with core capital goods doing even better at +6.6%; these gains came, however, off of lower previous-month lows, as January's result was revised down from -5.2% to -7.3%; total and core durable goods orders remain down 29% and 21% YoY, respectively; the inventories-to-shipments ratio fell slightly to 1.88, as inventories fell for the 5th consecutive month, but this time fell by more than shipments, which have fallen for the 7th straight month
MBA mortgage applications were up again, but predominantly refis; refis are up 50% from a year ago, while purchase apps are down by almost a third
Q4 GDP was marked down to -6.3%, worse than the previous -6.2% estimate, but not as bad as the -6.6% expectation; corporate profits fell 16.5% QoQ and 21.5% YoY
initial jobless claims up as expected to 652k, a level its been hovering around for the last 5 weeks, not yet matching the 1982 highs, while continuing claims exceeded expectations, rising to 5560k, now well above the 1974 and 1982 peaks (albeit not population-adjusted), and showing no evidence yet of stabilizing
INTERNATIONAL
German IFO fell as expected to a new low in March of 82.1; current conditions also hit a new low, although the expectations component rose for the 3rd straight month
UK yields ramped higher after a failed long gilt auction, despite BoE QE, perhaps because King had the day before said that they might not use the full 75B pound allotment to fund the QE program
Eurozone M3 came in at +5.9% YoY, which is the lowest its been since 2004, off from the 12.3% peak
in the UK, business investment for Q4 wasn't as bad as expected, but retail sales for February were much worse, now up just 0.4% YoY, lowest since 1995
Japanese CPI and retail trade data comes out this evening; the former is expected to be -0.1% YoY, the latter -3%
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