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Monday, August 25, 2025

2025-08-25

**** denotes well-worth reading in full at source (even if excerpted extensively here)


Economic and Market Fare:

a report from one of my profs at LU:

............. In 1960, Ontario has the highest real per-capita GDP of all 10 provinces. By 1990, it was in second place just behind Alberta but ahead of British Columbia. In 2005, Saskatchewan surpassed Ontario moving it to third place while by 2022 Ontario’s rank had moved to fifth place. Essentially over the course of just over half a century, Ontario went from the top province in terms of per-capita GDP to mid-ranked. Ontario is exhibiting more characteristics associated with the Atlantic provinces—Ontario received equalization for the first time in 2009—than the more dynamic western parts of the country. A province that once had hopes as high as the tallest tree, now is lucky to aspire to economic heights akin to a lilac bush.

What has happened to Ontario is more than a re-equilibration of the federation as resource rich provinces developed or the effects of adjustment to a more competitive free trade world in the wake of the FTA and NAFTA. Simply put, Ontario has experienced a productivity decline rooted in a failure to boost business investment. While Ontario is a mineral and resource rich province, it has been unable to bring resource projects online—the Ring of Fire a case in point. This has been accompanied by a governmental and business culture focused more on process and regulation than on trying to get things done and a cultural shift to gaining wealth through supply restraint and asset appreciation rather than hard work.

Nowhere is this more evident than in housing investment where population growth has outstripped additions to housing stock. The regulatory framework towards getting projects approved, permitted and built is generally a labyrinth. Large amounts of both suburban and northern land were environmentally sequestered from development without steps to ensure density development creating artificial scarcity particularly in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). The effects on new supply were worsened by the fact that new housing began to be treated as an investment by the public and a revenue source by governments given the plethora of tiny investor driven condo buildings and the development charges accounting for a large proportion of the price of new housing.

While there are signs that the Ontario government is finally trying to overcome these past missteps, it’s an uphill struggle given the continual grasping at quick fixes ...........



........... And Powell probably knows that massive jobs data revisions are coming: on 9 September, the Bureau of Labor will release its preliminary benchmark revision to net jobs increases for the year to last March 

............. The irony is that the Fed, like other central banks, has little effect on the economy through monetary measures.  So the Fed has been reconsidering its monetary policy ‘framework’.  It still holds to the view: that “the inflation rate over the longer run is primarily determined by monetary policy,” but it has to say that, because otherwise there is no need for ‘monetary policy’! Yet in 2010s, the US inflation rate dropped below the 2% target even though the Fed cut rates to zero, and after the COVID pandemic ended, inflation rocketed despite sharp rate hikes by the Fed and has remained stubbornly above the 2% rate. Indeed, US inflation has remained above ‘target’ for more than four years. And now both inflation and unemployment are likely to rise from here, whatever the Fed does.  Monetary policy does not work. ............

................................. In summary, what do all these papers at the Jackson Hole symposium tell you?  First, it is the value created by human labour that is key to economic growth and living standards, not changes in the cost of borrowing or lending money and the decisions of central bankers on interest rates.  The ‘supply side’ of an economy is what matters.  All the papers implied that. ..............



............... we are sticking with our associated targets for the S&P 500 of 6600 by year-end 2025 and 7700 at the end of next year.

........ We expect that the bull market will be increasingly earnings-led rather than valuation-led through 2026. Both Q1-2025 and Q2-2025 S&P 500 earnings were much better than expected (chart).


Mega-caps churn but bull market behavior persists

The S&P 500 is dominated by just a handful of mega-cap companies. The seven largest companies account for more than a third of the total market cap of the entire index (equivalent to the smallest 440 companies in the index). Half of the market cap of the index is in the largest 23 companies. The S&P 500 did NOT make a new high last week.

However, the equal-weight S&P 500 did manage to make a new high last, with a (hopefully) decisive move above the December peak that has been repeatedly challenged in recent weeks.

More than 70% of the companies within the S&P 500 are now trading above their 200-day averages.  ................



It’s a Bull Market.
We know that from risk-on metrics.
We know that from breadth.
We know that from sector positioning.
It might seem redundant at this point, but after a decade of studying markets, one lesson always comes back to me:
Once you have a solid foundation, you need to be reminded more than you need to be taught.
Yes, there are new lessons every day. 
But the truths that build prosperity are usually the simple, foundational ones.
Repetition is underrated, while novelty is overly celebrated.  ...........



........... Current earnings projections for 2025 suggest a nearly 20% increase, well above historical growth trends. While such detachments of the market from earnings are not uncommon, they tend not to be sustainable over more extended periods. We suspect that the risk to stocks in 2025 will be a failure of earnings to meet optimistic expectations.

..... It is worth repeating that valuations are unreliable market-timing tools. Elevated valuations reflect heightened investor optimism and expectations of robust earnings growth in bull markets and can remain that way for extended periods.

However, excess market valuations leave investors vulnerable to unexpected, exogenous events. Those “events,” when they occur, lead to sharp sentiment reversals. What would cause such a sentiment reversal? No one knows. This is why when the “unexpected” happens, Wall Street’s immediate response is to suggest that “no one could have seen that coming.”

As such, investors must continue managing risk into 2025 and navigate the markets accordingly.


PIMCO Macro Signposts | The Economy Isn’t the Stock Market (and Vice Versa) (via the Bond Beat)

… Consider the U.S. stock market. The S&P 500 Index is up almost 10% year to date (a significant rise but a bumpy ride, given the roughly 20% drawdown in April). Yet this performance may obscure important realities about the broader U.S. economic situation. Real consumer spending grew at a 1% annualized pace in the first half of 2025, down sharply from the 4% annualized pace in the second half of 2024, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Real GDP growth has been slowing – it grew at a 1.2% annualized pace in the first half of 2025 – down from the 2.7% in the second half of 2024, the BEA reported. U.S. employment growth has decelerated to below 1% so far in 2025, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a threshold that has historically preceded recessions…


Surviving the New Age of Economic Coercion



Charts:
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(not just) for the ESG crowd:


Geopolitical Fare:



....... It’s 2025. There’s an Internet. Who can now pretend they have no idea what Israel has done, is doing, aims to do?

It’s obvious to the entire world that the Biden and Trump administrations have run cover for Israel while enabling the horrors before us.

But for those seeking a deeper understanding, or perhaps sources to encourage others to understand what is taking place, many important documentaries stand ready to enlighten. .................





................. And that brings me to the last reason I will mention in this piece, one that has been made many times before, but is not mentioned often enough. The American-led post-World War II order made much in its propaganda and even in reality of a commitment to universal human rights that organically included at a least highly publicized prohibition of genocide or ethnic cleansing as an integral part. That an American-sponsored state created–in however a haphazard way–precisely in response to a genocide can participate, in anything that smacks of ethnically-based mass violence, speaks of a moral or civilizational rot of a special kind. Only a much more vigorous resistance can deliver us from its seemingly inevitable spread.



......... Brandishing their warped logic, they cannot possibly understand that if Ukraine is instrumentalized – actually since before Maidan in 2014 – to harass and destabilize Russia in its western borders, Russia will forcefully counter-attack.

That’s at the heart of the Russian concept of “underlying causes” of the Ukraine tragedy, which must be thoroughly addressed if there is any real shot at Trumpian or not Trumpian “peace”. .............


Nothing Has Changed in the War in Ukraine ........

....... The two sides (Russia vs. USA/EU/NATO/Ukraine) continue to talk past one another, with the main actor on the side, the USA, hilariously positioning itself as a mediator. The fact of the matter is that there are two wars being fought simultaneously, and the USA is the main actor in the more important one (USA vs. Russia). A belligerent USA managed to position itself as a mediator in the conflict between Israel and Hamas/Hezbollah/Iran, but trying to pull the same trick with Russia is too tall an order to fulfill.

At the same time, Russia has to humour to the USA as a recognition of its unrivaled power. This was the reason for the recent summit in Alaska, one which ended quickly and served only to remind Trump and his team that the Russian position has not fundamentally changed. Russia came away from this summit with a small victory in which US demands for an immediate ceasefire were dropped.

Fast forward to this past Monday where Ukrainian President Zelensky arrived in Washington with the cream of the crop of the European National Branch Managers of USA Inc. (including EU VP of USA Inc. Ursula von der Leyen) to reiterate Ukraine’s position, one that is effectively unchanged from the time of Boris Johnson parachuting into Kiev in 2022 to urge Ukraine to keep fighting. The only thing of note to occur during that meeting was that Trump informed the world that the EU would buy weapons from the USA to continue to arm Ukraine so that it can defend itself against Russia. ............

............ 
This is just NATO. These people are shameless.

Left outside of my commentary is what has been agreed to in back channels between the relevant parties. There is a growing sense that Kiev is willing to accept territorial losses in return for strong security guarantees, but Russia will not accept security guarantees such as those that have been floated.

This war is far from over.


Anatomy of a propaganda op.

preamble:
“The information age is actually a media age,” the late John Pilger once remarked. “We have war by media, censorship by media, demonology by media, retribution by media, diversion by media—a Surreal assembly line of obedient clichés and false assumptions.”

I have quoted John to this effect numerous times since he offered these observations. The occasion of his speech was the coup in Kiev the United States cultivated in February 2014. And how right he has since proven. As John also noted at the time, not in his lifetime (and, so, not in mine) have we been subjected to so pervasive an onslaught of media-driven propaganda in the service of another of America’s imperial adventures.

There is propaganda by way of omission, an insidious and highly effective technique, and propaganda by way of disinformation—the less subtle strategy. The Ukraine crisis has precipitated numerous examples of both. In the latter line we have had some notable cases. There was the mass grave outside Mariupol, where the Russians allegedly buried hundreds of civilians but which turned out to be an ordinary cemetery. There was the massacre at Bucha, supposedly conducted by Russian units as they withdrew; that turned out to be the work of Ukrainian soldiers taking revenge against townspeople who did not resist the Russian presence.

With this piece The Floutist begins a two-part series dedicated to exploding various of these lies. Both pieces come to us from German-speaking writers.

In this investigation Helmut Scheben, a Swiss correspondent of long experience, takes on the extended and unfortunately effective propaganda operation concerning the removal of Ukrainian children from war zones after the Russian intervention began in February 2022. In a brilliant bit of lateral thinking, Scheben deploys history to unmask hypocrisy. As he points out, the United States has evacuated thousands of children in every war from Vietnam to Afghanistan, always declaring this a humanitarian mission. When Russia removes orphans from combat zones in Ukraine, an overwhelming Western propaganda apparatus portrays this as child abduction and a crime. ..............


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Tweet Pics of the Week:


Tweet Vid of the Week


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Tuesday, August 19, 2025

2025-08-19

**** denotes well-worth reading in full at source (even if excerpted extensively here)


Economic and Market Fare:




Executive Summary
Despite the second quarter GDP growth, the figures have some worrying trends that suggest that the US economy is heading into a period of noticeably slower growth which is likely thanks to the impact of tariffs on inflation, the tightening of the labor market and as a consequence shrinking consumer spending.

With the price increases occurring as a result of the new tariff policies, it will eat into real incomes, at a time when consumer spending is starting to look a bit shaky.  Monthly retail sales and personal spending have started to cool in the last couple of months, despite the increase in prices. It is evident that spending on balance has stagnated for the first six months of the year which rarely happens outside of a recession.



While the macro backdrop is giving mixed messages, other signals are decidedly bullish.

The technical evidence has been strong, as the U.S. stock market is acting like it normally does coming off a major low.

First, the breadth thrusts that triggered shortly after the April lows indicated a new uptrend was underway. Second, leadership was consistent with previous recoveries after large corrections, with tech and other offensive groups like financials leading. Third, long-term breadth readings began to reach levels that confirmed uptrends which were proven sustainable in previous cycles.

Of course, it is not perfect. Many stock groups are working through overbought readings while sentiment has improved as we find ourselves in a seasonally weak time of the year. ..........

While prices can swing on sentiment or idiosyncratic developments, stocks over time tend to follow the direction of earnings growth because a company’s ability to generate profit ultimately drives its value.

As we enter the final stages of the Q2 reporting season, with ~90% of companies having reported, EPS growth is tracking at +11-12% YoY whereas the expectation at the start of the quarter was +4%. This follows a similar pattern from Q1.

84% of companies have beat estimates, surprising positively by 9%.

These sterling results come at a time when many investors feared an outright contraction in earnings growth due to the tremendous storm clouds around trade policy, passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and the potential emergence of another inflation wave. .............


Weight of the Evidence tilts toward Opportunity despite macro concerns




The 4 Ratios That Tell the Market’s Real Story
......................
Robust Risk On Behavior
My goal is to develop robust investment frameworks.
That means we never take one of these ratios on its own as a reason to make a decision.
We want to weigh the evidence, look at them in aggregate, and see which way the scale is leaning.
Right now, these four ratios alongside this pop in Small Caps are all lined up in the same direction.
That doesn’t mean there won’t be volatility or negative headlines.
But it does mean the weight of evidence suggests it’s still a time to be more opportunistic than fearful.
Is that a surprise? No. We’re in the midst of a Bull Market.
But keeping a close eye on these ratios ensures we’ll know where to look when risk-seeking becomes the exception, not the rule.
Until then……the risk is not taking any.


The Three Americas and aspirational displacement

The US is operating with 3 broken gears that no longer connect. There are currently 3 Americas:

America 1 (The Speculative Class): The first America is the speculative class, and its engine is artificial intelligence. The Magnificent 7 are spending over $100 billion a quarter on data centers, which are these monumental projects of hope. They consume vast amounts of capital and electricity, a place where money and power are absorbed in a high-stakes gamble.

America 2 (The Real Economy): The second America is the real economy. With 75% of new jobs in healthcare and social assistance, our workforce is being absorbed by the essential but underfunded ‘maintenance economy’ of an aging population. While it props up the labor market, it fails to generate the type of wealth that fuels the stock market or long-term growth, as resources are poured into maintenance rather than creation.

America 3 (The Memes): The third America is the bridge between the other two, acting somewhat as a psychological gold sink for those who are priced out of a house and a future. The money spent here is largely speculative and doesn't build a sustainable future (is memecoin investing productive, I don’t know) but it gives people a sense of agency and hope within a system that otherwise offers them little.

It’s a very strange world. ........................



P.E. Fare:

Trump "democratizing" private equity fee income, one retail investor at a time.

President Trump has made the move to firmly hit private equity’s (PE) G-Spot: unfettered access to the $12 trillion 401(k) market. This past Thursday, Trump signed an executive order Democratizing Access to Alternative Assets for 401(K) Investors

The order directs the Secretary of Labor Lori Chavez-DeRemer to review and potentially remove the biggest obstacle PE has had in gaining access to 401(k) plans, most notably the plan manager being sued for not performing their fiduciary responsibilities by investing in PE. That’s what happened in 2015 when Intel employees sued the company for what they considered to be lousy returns from PE investments. .............



Bubble Fare:

********** Hussman: The Bubble Term

.......................... The word “bubble” gets tossed around quite a bit. Usually, it comes in the form of verbal arguments about whether prices have advanced to a point that’s “too high” in some sense.

We can do much better than that. A bubble is a mathematical object.

As I’ve observed before, bubbles are generated when investors drive valuations higher without simultaneously adjusting their expectations for future returns lower. That is, investors extrapolate past returns based on price behavior, even though the resulting expectations about future returns are inconsistent with the returns that would equate price with discounted cash flows. ...................................


.......... A reliable valuation gauge is nothing but shorthand for a proper discounted cash flow analysis. As I’ve detailed across decades of market commentaries, the valuation gauges we use are faithful to that requirement. So, valuations offer beautiful intuition about the growing gap between the future returns in investors heads, and the future returns that one would project based on discounted cash flows. ....................

That’s just arithmetic. The actual total return of the S&P 500 for any given holding period has three pieces: the annual growth in fundamentals F, the annualized change in valuations (Price/F) during the holding period, and the average dividend yield during that period.

Over the past 10, 20 and 30 years, nominal GDP, S&P 500 revenues, and corporate gross value added have grown by only about 4.5% annually. Suppose that growth continues. The current S&P 500 dividend yield is only about 1.2%. So if valuations can remain at current extremes forever, the expected return arithmetic says 4.5% + 1.2% = 5.7% nominal.

If valuations decline to some lower level, the effect is to reduce expected returns by (future V / current V)^(1/T)-1 where T is the number of years. For example, a decline in MarketCap/GVA from the current extreme of 3.7 to a level no lower than the 2000 peak of 2.5, would lower 10-year total returns by (2.5/3.7)^(1/10)-1 = -3.8%. The resulting 10-year nominal total return estimate then becomes 5.7%-3.8% = 1.9% annually, and even less if inflation is positive. That’s not a theory, it’s just arithmetic. The only issue is whether investors assume the bubble will be permanent. ......................

Now look at fiscal policy. As I’ve noted before – equilibrium again – anytime one sector runs a deficit (consumption and net investment over-and-above income), some other sector must run a surplus (income over-and-above consumption and net investment). That’s not a theory. It’s just an accounting identity. That accounting identity has played out in real time in ways that investors don’t seem to fully recognize.

Specifically, as government deficits exploded in recent years – particularly resulting from a combination of tax cuts and pandemic spending – corporate free cash flows also exploded. They had to. This wasn’t because of some new-era productivity boom. It was because of equilibrium. It’s just an accounting identity. But it creates a situation where perpetually extreme corporate earnings now rely on perpetually extreme government deficits. They are mirror images of each other. ...........

Although interest rates are no longer at zero, the massive corporate debt refinancing in 2020-2021 has delayed the impact of the “liftoff” from zero rates. The current bubble extreme rests at the very top of that house of cards. Put simply, investors now rely on an ever-expanding Bubble Term that was driven by “free money” monetary and fiscal policies that will not only have to persist – but will have to expand without limit in order to sustain that Bubble Term.



Quotes of the Week:

“The bull case remains a convincing one, with earnings growth solid, and a cooler tone on trade continuing to prevail, all the while dovish policy expectations help to provide a cushion against any worries that the economy may be softening,” said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg TV that rates should likely be 150-175 basis points lower. “We could go into a series of rate cuts here, starting with a 50 basis-point rate cut in September,” he said.



Charts:
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(not just) for the ESG crowd:

Canada’s response to the extreme weather threat is being upended as the traditional epicentre of the blazes shifts as the climate warms



Ted Nordhaus wants us to stop talking about climate catastrophe. He calls Amazon collapse, crossing tipping points, and weather shocks exaggerations. He acknowledges that the world is headed toward 3°C of warming, but is confident that society will adapt.

That is techno-optimism at its most absurd—ignoring physiology, geography, and demographics. At ~3°C, the world crosses into extreme mortality events, recurrent food shocks, and mass displacement as “normal” features of the system. ...........



Yves here. This is a terrific talk in which James Galbraith, recapping his work in Entropy Economics, explains how the foundations of economics are fundamentally at odds with the operation and limits of our physical world. Trust me, either put it on for a listen or find the time to read the transcript. Galbraith offers a fresh and important view of where what presents itself as economic logic is dead wrong and how we might go about making better policy decisions. ............



A.I. Fare:


Meta is building “Prometheus” and “Hyperion”, Elon Musk’s xAI has “Colossus”, and OpenAI is developing “Stargate” — each a more than $100bn project to build the world’s most powerful supercomputer and usher in a new generation of artificial intelligence.

But each of those gargantuan ventures is just a fraction of the spending required to build the data centres needed to power the AI era: one of the biggest movements of capital in modern history. .............


The future of A.I. is more Facebook, not jobs in space



U.S. B.S.:




Geopolitical Fare:


................................................... The Deep State’s game plan is total control: what really matters is the opening to establish a NATO corridor all the way to the Caspian.

There’s no way Nightingale will let that happen, not to mention Bear and Dragon: it would mean a direct NATO threat not only to the International North South Transportation Corridor (INSTC), which unites three BRICS (Russia, Iran, India) and crosses the Caspian, but also the Chinese Silk Roads, whose corridors traverse Iran with possible branch outs to the Caucasus. ............

The most probable outcome is that the proxy war – and the SMO – will keep rollin’ on, but with the Deep State making extra bundles of euros by selling tons of weapons for NATO to dispatch to Kiev. But even without the promise of a new, serious, US-Russia security architecture, BRICS may still stand a chance to snatch a victory out of Goldfinger’s latest photo op.


Coercive bilateralism, strategic decoupling, and the erosion of multilateralism: a brave new world

............. Today, the global stage is dominated by three actors whose contrasting approaches define the future of international trade: a United States governed once again by that same unpredictable and aggressive style; a fractured European Union, led by leaders who resemble indecisive merchants lacking a clear strategic vision; and a methodical China, headed by a sober and calculating leader whose banner is multipolarity. These three powers, with their divergent paths, are reshaping the rules of global economic governance. ..............................

In this new order, trade policy is no longer dissociated from geopolitics. Markets are weapons; tariffs are instruments of the Cold War. And while the great powers clash, the rest of the world must choose a side… or risk being caught in the crossfire.



From Bosnia to Afghanistan, the neoliberal peace-building model has compounded conflicts and inequalities by eroding the core function of states and subordinating people’s needs to the interests of capital. But in Ukraine, the co-optation of the recovery process by private economic interests is being taken to a whole new level. .......................

................... The path we are now on is abysmal. We live in war economies. Part of the militaristic discourse is to claim that investments in weapons are not about waging wars but about ensuring peace. More weapons mean better defence, a sort of militarised insurance, we are told. This is nothing but gaslighting.

Cynthia Enloe, one of the most prominent feminist thinkers on militarism, has shown that it is a prerequisite to waging wars. Militarism is deployed to implicitly and explicitly foster societal support for and normalisation of war agendas. If we spend money on weapons instead of the public good, and if we allow our societies to be consumed by militarisation, while discounting peace as naïve and peace activists as dangerous, we will have war. .....................





........... Simply hilarious getting to watch the press squirm and spin. The sad fact is that the Western establishment is so infected with an intense hatred of Putin and Russia that they are incapable of actually listening to what Putin said.



My coalescing sense of the underwhelming Alaska Chats is that Russia has not materially varied from its longstanding terms.

Trump rolled into town with his "stealth" flyover, imagining he was the one giving an audience to Putin.

From start to finish it was perfectly evident to any discerning observer that it was just the opposite, and that Putin was there to repeat and to emphasize Russia's apparently inviolable terms.

........ I cannot understand how so many people seem to doubt the resolve of the Russians to continue fighting western forces for years to come pursuant to their clearly enunciated objectives.



Palestine is the moral question of our time because the abuse of the Palestinians is the most glaring, in-your-face symptom of the imperial disease. You can see the effects of so many of the empire’s abusive dynamics in how this thing is playing out, from racism to colonialism to militarism to war profiteering to mass media propaganda to empire-building to government corruption to suppression of free speech to ecocide to the heartless, mindless, soul-eating nature of the capitalist system under which we all live. 

But there’s more to it than that. The primary reason to place Palestine front and center as the moral issue of our time is because if we can’t sort out the morality of an active genocide backed by our own western governments, we’re not going to be able to sort out anything else. ............



............... I feel this so hard. Gaza doesn’t need our sadness, it needs out anger. It needs our rage. That’s the only appropriate response to a live-streamed genocide supported by your own government.

Sadness and grief are for natural disasters. Cancer diagnoses. Terrible accidents. This is not something that has passively happened to the people of Gaza, it’s something that’s been done to them by other people, and the people who are doing it have names and faces. It’s not a tragedy, it’s a crime. A crime that is still currently being perpetrated and urgently needs to be stopped, by any means necessary.

The correct response is rage. Rage toward the people who are responsible for this mass atrocity. The officials of the Israeli government and all their western allies. Their apologists and propagandists in the mainstream press. The war profiteers who are benefiting from an active genocide. Individual members of the IDF. The hasbarists who swarm social media and pollute our information ecosystem with manipulation and lies.

Celebrities and influencers who urge us to weep for Gaza are pushing us into passivity and defeatism by urging us to treat this like an unavoidable tragedy that has already happened instead of an unforgivable atrocity that is still underway. This is power-serving propaganda, and it deserves nothing but scorn. ...............





............... Snow Himbo asks on Twitter, “Given how horrifying reality is at present, what are some things you still have hope in?”

I still have hope in young people. Gen Z haven’t just been outperforming all of us on Gaza, they’ve been leading the charge. They’re simply a superior generation to the rest of us. This may be because they didn’t grown up marinating in the brainwashing of the mainstream media. It may also be because they’re the first generation in human history ever to have the ability to create their own culture without having culture imposed upon them by older generations; they’re learning about the world from streamers their own age discussing ideas while playing video games and TikTok personalities explaining politics while putting on makeup. The rest of us got our culture solely from our parents, teachers, Hollywood, and mass media propaganda. We were way more dumbed down, because knowledge was gate-kept from us.

I have hope in the expansion of consciousness. We’re growing so much more aware in so many ways, even as things apparently get darker and darker. Gaza is opening eyes at an unprecedented rate. ..........................



Science Fare:



COVID-19 can cause both acute and delayed neurological effects in children, ranging from headaches and fatigue to rare but severe brain disorders.



Tweet Vid of the Week:


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Sunday, August 10, 2025

2025-08-10

 **** denotes well-worth reading in full at source (even if excerpted extensively here)


Economic and Market Fare:



Canadian insurer's shares plummet with profit warning

Shares in Sun Life Financial Inc. tumbled as much as 8.5 per cent on Friday ...........



Bubble Fare:

AI Is A Money Trap

In the last week, we’ve had no less than three different pieces asking whether the massive proliferation of data centers is a massive bubble, and though they, at times, seem to take the default position of AI’s inevitable value, they’ve begun to sour on the idea that it’s going to happen soon.

Meanwhile, quirked-up threehundricorn OpenAI has either raised or is about to raise another $8.3 billion in cash, less than two months since it raised $10 billion from SoftBank and a selection of venture capital firms.

I hate to be too crude, but where the fuck is this money going? Is OpenAI just incinerating capital? Is it compute? Is it salaries? Is it compute? Is it to build data centers, because SoftBank isn’t actually building anything for Stargate?

The Information suggested OpenAI is using the money to build data centers — possibly the only worse investment it can make other than generative AI, and it’s one that it can’t avoid because OpenAI also is somehow running out of compute. And now they're in "early-stage discussions" about an employee share sale that would value the company at $500 billion, a ludicrous number that shows we're leaving the realm of reality. .........................



NPR recently reported that US house sales are down, while at the same time, prices are at their highest level ever.

And indeed they are. Bank of International Settlements data shows that US house prices are more than 2.5 times higher, in real terms, than they were when the first Baby Boomers became home owners in the 1970s. The Baby Boomers really did have it easier.

So, why are US home prices at all-time highs when almost no one can afford to buy? Who is rigging the game—and how does the system keep it this way?

The answer is simple: the banks did it.

The main factor making housing unaffordable in the USA–and most of the rest of the world–is too much mortgage lending by banks. This is not just a US phenomenon. It is common to every country that has deregulated its financial sector.

Gen Xers and Millennials can’t afford housing, not because supply is inadequate–which is the excuse used by conventional economists and politicians–but because banks have been allowed to lend too much money for housing.

Therefore, if average-income Gen Xers and Millenials and Alphas are ever going to be able to afford housing, bank lending must be controlled. .....................

Though USA real house prices are two and a half times as expensive as they were in 1970, this only puts the USA in the middle of the pack. UK house prices are five times as high as they were in 1970; Australian house prices are 4.2 times higher. Across the world, Gen Xers and Millenials are being screwed by the banks. It’s time to fight back. ............



Charts:
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(not just) for the ESG crowd:


Our two recent papers (Global warming in the pipeline and Global warming has accelerated) [hereafter Paper 1 and Paper 2] were long – due to our research approach and our intent to raise numerous issues. Thus, we summarize the most important conclusions here.

Principal objectives of research in climate change are to evaluate climate sensitivity and the forcings that are driving climate change. Our analysis approach places comparable emphasis on each of three sources of information: (1) paleoclimate data, i.e., the long history of climate change, (2) modern observations of ongoing climate change, and (3) global climate modeling. Full exploitation of all three research tools allows conclusions to be reached with a higher degree of confidence than otherwise would be possible.

We summarize these three analyses, each in a page or at maximum two pages. These summaries are intended for people with some scientific bent. If we do not get such people to appreciate the science, the clique (see below) will continue to obfuscate reality. However, these summaries still make for a long document. Here we skip to the Summary. ...................


..................... The most obvious way to start assessing the progress of the required energy transition is to look at what has been accomplished during the past generation when the concerns about global decarbonization assumed a new urgency and prominence. Contrary to common impressions, there has been no absolute worldwide decarbonization. In fact, the very opposite is the case. The world has become much more reliant on fossil carbon (even as its relative share has declined a bit). We are now halfway between 1997 (27 years ago) when delegates of nearly 200 nations met in Kyoto to agree on commitments to limit the emissions of greenhouse gases, and 2050; the world has 27 years left to achieve the goal of decarbonizing the global energy system,

All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86% in 1997 to about 82% in 2022.  But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55% more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997 

By 2023 the absolute reliance on fossil carbon rose by 54% worldwide since the Kyoto commitment. In that quarter century, the world has substantially increased its dependence on fossil carbon.

Despite international agreements, government spending and regulations, and technological advancements, global fossil fuel consumption surged by 55% between 1997 and 2023. .........................................................


Exclusive finding by DeSmog shows high-level industry awareness that recycling plastic ‘not feasible’ as companies face lawsuits over alleged public deception campaign.





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.............. At this point all smart nations and blocs should be doing their best to reduce vulnerability to the US, to route around it and to move towards as much autarky as possible.

It’s notable that while China remains a huge trading power, the #1 economic priority over the last eight years has been making all major industrial stacks domestic: ending their need for industrial goods from other countries and reducing their need for imports of resources. Where that’s not possible, they have shifted to reliable partners like Russia and Iran and various other nations in Asia, Africa and South America.

John Maynard Keynes was of the opinion that anything a country needed, it should make or grow at home if at all feasible. Price arguments are largely ludicrous, because if you don’t have vast exposure to trade or need to buy important goods overseas and you don’t allow significant currency movements outside your border, prices are largely a domestic matter. That is to say, they are a matter of policy. Government actions largely determine the price of goods and services produced in the country IF the country is capable of producing those goods and services itself.

Or, again, as Keynes said, “anything we can do, we can afford.” (The corollary is that anything you can’t do, you can’t afford.)

Trade dependency is foolish. It may be necessary in some cases, and certain policy choices require it, like export driven industrialization. But once you’ve got an industrial base, it becomes a choice. .................



As the US flails about trying to maintain a dominance that’s already gone, it’s often difficult to analyze or predict US actions because they usually appear on their face so irrational. ...

The takeaway: building is hard. Destruction is easy. And in the case of the US it’s the destruction of economies, societies, and the planet through mafia logic. The first goal is to profit through extortion and rent-seeking. Everywhere. When that fails, Washington quickly pivots to its backup plan: regime change. But even that strategy is running out of steam these days.

There is little to no chance of forcing Russia and China to bend the knee, and Washington has few options aside from mutually assured destruction—either economic with Beijing or the good ol’ fashioned variety with Moscow. The attacks (and years of economic warfare) have thus far failed to bring about regime change in Tehran, and next time Iran, the thinking goes, will be more prepared—perhaps with China and Russia at its side. The bleed over from the thrashing about in impotent rage against Russia now has the US once again doing its best to push India off the fence and into the embrace of China and Russia.

There are still fever dreams in Washington of using ethnic divisions and proxy forces to take down Tehran, of destabilization in Moscow once Putin eventually dies, of economic or demographic forces weakening China, etc., but these are all based on wishful thinking rather than any realistic plan. In its place we’re seeing more lashing out, more sanctions, weaponized tariffs, and more bombings with Trump on a record airstrike pace. It’s not working. .................

........................ As the US descends deeper into Dr. Strangelove territory and violence, decay, and lawlessness reigns supreme, the great question is where and how does this madness end?

Here are two options. The crazy elites in the US need to be stopped or they’re going to kill us all—either slowly through a mixture of climate catastrophe, breakdown capitalism, and genocide or there’s always the nuclear option. ...............

What can the other powers like Russia and China do? They could start by locking down Eurasia. ............

.......... Israeli propagandists are now deploying this argument to justify the tragedy unfolding in Gaza. They no longer deny the brutal reality of starvation—though some still try—because the evidence is overwhelming and the cause so clear that their lies are exposed. What they attempt now is to deflect blame—either to Hamas, the UN, or any organization trying to help the Palestinians—or, in the face of undeniable deaths, to a preexisting medical condition. .............

The reality of the situation—the man-made, Western-enabled famine—is obvious to all of us. That is why Western governments are rushing to show the most irrelevant signs of support for the Palestinians who are dying: they want an excuse in case they are asked tomorrow. But it is too late. The stain of this genocide will haunt us all because we have entered uncharted ethical territory. ................

The possibility of something like this occurring while Israel maintains near-impunity poses many serious questions about international institutions, international law, and human rights. But one goes to the core of the social order under Western states: under which ethical framework—religious, secular, atheist, or otherwise—do Western governments operate if they do not uphold the first principle of ethics? It is an important question to ask because much of their legitimacy—and our safety—depends on it. .......



The dead of Gaza lie beneath the rubble of what was once a civilization. Half a million Palestinians—men, women, children, infants—have been exterminated in a genocide so brazen, so documented, so livestreamed in high definition that future historians will marvel not at the brutality itself, but at the world's obscene indifference to it. This is the first genocide in human history broadcast in real time, and most of the world has chosen to look away. .....................

But this is not merely a story of Israeli barbarism. This is the story of a world that has traded its soul for profit margins and geopolitical advantage. This is the story of how every major power on Earth—from Washington to Amsterdam, from Moscow to Riyadh—has revealed itself to be morally bankrupt when measured against the screams of burning children.

The Global South Had its Moment
The Global South had its moment. After five centuries of Western colonialism, after generations of suffering under the boot of Empire, the non-aligned world finally possessed the economic leverage to say "no more." China, with its vast trade networks, could have strangled Israel's economy overnight. Russia, despite being attacked by NATO with the help of Israel, maintains cozy relations with the architects of this genocide. Brazil, India, South Africa—all have chosen the path of what they euphemistically call "pragmatism," which is simply moral cowardice dressed up in diplomatic language. .......................

The West is Morally Dead
And what is the West's response to this deliberately engineered famine? More theater. More empty promises. More calls for a "two-state solution" that has been dead since before most of us were born. The same politicians who spent two years enabling this slaughter now pose as humanitarian saviors, offering crumbs of aid while the arms shipments continue unabated. They speak of Israel's "right to defend itself" against starving refugees while sending the bombs that turn children into dust.

The depravity is not limited to those directly complicit. It extends to every corporation that continues to trade with Israel, every university that maintains research partnerships, every pension fund that invests in the machinery of occupation. ......................

The Palestinians will not be saved by the international community, because there is no international community. There are only competing mafias dressed up in flags and anthems, each calculating how best to profit from the blood of the innocent. The resistance will continue, because it must. The rest of us will have to live with the knowledge that when history called, we were found wanting. When the test came, we failed. And the cries of the dead will follow us to our graves.



Other Fare:

As companies like Amazon and Microsoft lay off workers and embrace A.I. coding tools, computer science graduates say they’re struggling to land tech jobs.


As judges scout new restaurants to evaluate in U.S. cities, an anthropologist investigates the elite, Eurocentric history of the Michelin Red Guide and how it became the ultimate arbiter of culinary excellence



QOTW:

Stivers: “There was delicious irony in being lectured about freedom of the press by people being deranged by fake news.”



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