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Monday, January 26, 2009

Worthwhile Reading - Chinese New Year Edition

A truly global slump. Do not look to the emerging economies for good news. Brad Setser, Follow the Money.

Inflation v. Deflation. Cassandra Does Tokyo. (hat tip, naked capitalism)

Scandinavian bank nationalizatin and due process. John Hempton, Bronte Capital.
(without a fair process that is consistently adhered to, private capital will stay away, for fear of what might happen to it with ad hoc government measures; no fair process means no private capital means nationalization becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy)

Peter Schiff was wrong. Michael Shedlock, Global Economic Trend Analysis.
(though at moments it seems otherwise, this is more than just a diatribe against Schiff for stubbornly losing a lot of his clients' money on the basis of a failed investment thesis; its a pretty good review of Mish's rationale for a grinding Japan-like deflationary outcome)

Nationalize now. Barry Ritholtz, The Big Picture.

America's banks need to hold a yard sale. Meredith Whitney, FT.

Quarterly Letter. Jeremy Grantham, GMO. (hat tip, Paul Kedrosky)
(argues that private debt needs to be halved, and speedily, or U.S. risks falling into Japanese malaise)

Roubini, Edwards predict slump in S&P 500 on China. Bloomberg.
(Roubini predicts shrinking demand from China will result in 20% sell-off in global equities; Edwards points out that emperor has no clothes on, foresees China slowdown leading to 40% drop in S&P to 500)

Bankers' pay as sign of the apocalypse. Paul Kedrosky, Infectious Greed.

Bad news: we're back to 1931. Good news: it's not 1933 yet. Ambrose-Evans Pritchard, Telegraph.





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