Failure to consider constraints. Mish.
skim thru the first part about his predictions, but the rest of the post is good review
Shadow over Asia. Interview of Vitaliy Katsenelson by David Galland.
I am a big believer that in the boxing match between a visible and an invisible hand, though the invisible hand may lose a few rounds, it will win the match every time....
There are no shortcuts to greatness. As long as they keep building new bridges [to nowhere], the economic numbers will register that there is growth, but at some point the piper will have to be paid, and these projects have a negative return on capital....
The problem with China is pretty much the same as with any bubble. Though it may have had a solid foundation under it, it is simply a good thing taken too far.... the actions taken by the Chinese government, especially after the recent global recession, have basically supersized the bubble that was already forming.... The government can drive this bubble further than a rational observer would expect....
In the case of Japan, their government basically ran out of chips. I think the Chinese government still has enough chips to keep the bubble going awhile longer. These bubbles usually last longer than the reputation of the person who predicts their demise.
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