BEA Reports that Fourth Quarter 2019 GDP Grew at a 2.08% Rate
This is one of
the more misleading headline numbers we have ever seen. It simply does not
reflect the overall weakness in the data. The key growth of consumer spending
was down nearly a full percentage point (-0.91pp) from the prior quarter.
Commercial and private fixed investments were stagnant, and inventories were
being allowed to contract. The healthy headline number is generated almost
entirely from a huge uptick in imports 'growth' and an implausibly low
inflation deflator.
David Rosenberg Comments
·
GDP Reveal a Business Recession Beneath the Surface
·
All anyone needs to know from today's GDP report is that real private
final sales slowed to a four-year low of 1.4% at an annual rate
·
Business investment contracted at a 1.5% annualized pace, the third
decline in a row – a string we last saw in the Great Recession
The data ain’t
great, and this is before pandemic impacts
The only time
Chicago PMI has fallen this low that didn’t turn out to be
a recession was the near-miss of late’15 early ’16.
Demand-Side
Secular Stagnation of Productivity Growth.
“SARS” Versus
“Wuhan”: The Difference Between “Now & Then”
(not just) for the ESG crowd:
Enduring the Ending of the World. On Australia’s climate crisis.
Quotes of the Week:
Herman Daly: “Regarding quantification ecological economists distinguish growth from development. Growth is increase in size by assimilation or accretion of matter – it is quantitative. Development is qualitative improvement in design, priorities, or purpose. Growth is easier to measure than development, but development is more important for the future. Sustainable development, so-called, is qualitative improvement without quantitative growth in scale beyond ecosystem capacities for waste absorption and resource regeneration. By accepting ecological limits, we force the path of progress away from quantitative growth and on to qualitative development.”
“Reading The New York Times to learn about what’s happening in the world is like reading Calvin and Hobbes to learn about tigers.”
Photos of the Week: locust swarms in Kenya
Kinda neat graphic of the Week: Family Tree of
the Indo-European languages
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