n-cov notes:
GoC COVID-19 update
· 67% of cases are over the
age of 40
· 13% of cases have been
hospitalized
· 1 person has died of
COVID-19
· 80% of cases are travellers
and 10% are close contacts of those travellers
info on testing: Public Health Ontario: Coronavirus
Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Testing
How Does the
Coronavirus Test Work? 5 Questions Answered.
While collecting a sample is easy, actually determining whether a person
is infected with the coronavirus is much more complicated. The current method
looks for the virus’s genetic material (RNA) in a patient’s cells. In order to
detect the presence of RNA in the patient’s sample, labs perform a test called
reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction. This method first converts any
viral RNA to DNA. Then the DNA is replicated millions of times until there are
enough copies to detect using a specialized piece of equipment called a
quantitative PCR instrument. If genetic material from the virus is found in the
sample, then the patient is infected with the virus.
Canadian angle: Sunnybrook Institute: Research team (from
UofT, McMaster and Sunnybrook) has isolated the COVID-19 virus.
COVID19-Expert Judgmental Forecast-Survey PDF.
Main takeaway: We see a consensus among the
experts that the outbreak will continue to escalate in the US in coming weeks,
and that only 13% of all COVID-19 infections have been confirmed as cases so
far. Experts expect hospitalizations for COVID-19 to peak in May.
… The testing shortage is catastrophic: It means that no one knows how
bad the outbreak already is, and that we couldn’t take effectively aggressive
measures even we wanted to. There are so few tests available, or so little
capacity to run them, that they are being rationed for only the most obvious
candidates, which practically defeats the purpose. It is not those who are very
sick or who have traveled to existing hot spots abroad who are most critical to
identify, but those less obvious, gray-area cases — people who may be carrying
the disease around without much reason to expect they’re infecting others.
COVID-19
Incubation Period: An Update
Infection with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, appears to be
highly contagious and is primarily spread by droplets. Containment efforts have
emphasized quarantine during the incubation period as the most effective
measure to limit spread. Because of the personal and economic toll of this
measure and its implication for transmission, we need to maximize our
understanding of the incubation period…
In the resulting models, estimated median incubation time (IT) of
COVID-19 was 5.1 days; mean IT was 5.5 days. For 97.5% of infected persons,
symptoms appear by 11.5 days.
These findings confirm the current recommendations for quarantine: Most
patients who become symptomatic do so within 11 or 12 days and the vast
majority within 14 days. However, we already know that asymptomatic or mildly
symptomatic persons can transmit infection, and this group was not included
here. Better access to testing for asymptomatic infection will shed light on
this issue.
The Lancet: Clinical course
and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatient.
“For survivors, the median duration of viral shedding was 20 days from
illness onset, but the virus was continuously detectable until death in
non-survivors.
The shortest observed duration of viral shedding among survivors was 8
days, whereas the longest was 37 days.”
So….COVID19 viral shedding can be UP TO 37 DAYS, with
an average of 20 DAYS.
Patients may still be contagious during that time! current guidelines
recommend only a 14 day (2 week) quarantine / isolation time.
People may remain contagious well after they’re no longer symptomatic. Which
means additional propagation post quarantine.
Coronavirus: Why
it’s so deadly in Italy. Demographics and why they
are a warning to other countries
a comparison of the age distributions of Covid-19 cases in Italy, where
they are only testing people who show symptoms, and S. Korea, which has broad
testing.
A whole lot of 20-29yos out there who feel just fine but are v
contagious.
Over half of the coronavirus patients in intensive care in the
Netherlands are under 50 years old
Yeah, math, it can be scary:
Don’t “Flatten
the Curve,” stop it!
Dampening the infection rate of COVID-19 to a level that is compatible
with our medical system means that we would have to spread the epidemic over
more than a decade! ….. Flattening the curve is not an option for the United
States, for the UK or Germany. Don’t tell your friends to flatten the curve.
Let’s start containment and stop the curve.
good news for a change:
There are scientific papers showing effective treatments for coronavirus
being used in China
Chloroquine and
hydroxychloroquine as available weapons to fight COVID-19.
… following the very recent publication of results showing the in vitro
activity of chloroquine against SARS-CoV-2 [3], data have been reported on the
efficacy of this drug in patients with SARS-CoV-2-related pneumonia (named
COVID-19) at different levels of severity [4,5]. Indeed, following the in vitro
results, 20 clinical studies were launched in several Chinese hospitals. The
first results obtained from more than 100 patients showed the superiority of
chloroquine compared with treatment of the control group in terms of reduction
of exacerbation of pneumonia, duration of symptoms and delay of viral
clearance, all in the absence of severe side effects [4,5]. This has led in
China to include chloroquine in the recommendations regarding the prevention
and treatment of COVID-19 pneumonia
Taleb: Ethics of
Precaution: Individual and Systemic Risk. Pdf
How individuals have an ethical obligation to
"overreact" to systemic pandemic risks.
CDC is calling
for an eight-week ban on gatherings of 50 or more.
Covid_19:
Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community
What
US Government should do regarding Covid-19.
How
Much Worse the Coronavirus Could Get, in Charts.
Mapping How The
World Is Responding To Covid-19.
Who knew that Canada was below both US and UK?!?
Visualizing the
History of Pandemics.
Regular Related Fare:
Daniel Lacalle: Global GDP
Growth Estimates Are Plummeting.
Voxeu: Keeping the
lights on: Economic medicine for a medical shock
The figure displays a version of the well-known circular money flow
diagram (e.g. Mankiw 2010). In simplified form, households own capital and
labour, which they sell to businesses, who use it to make things that
households then buy with the money businesses gave them, thereby completing the
circuit and keeping the economy ticking over. The key point is that the economy
continues running only when the money keeps flowing around the circuit. Roughly
speaking, a flow-disruption anywhere causes a slowdown everywhere. The diagram
here adds in a few more complications by allowing for a government and
foreigners. It also separates consumption expenditure and investment
expenditure. The red crosses show where the three types of shocks can, or are,
disrupting the flow of money – the economic dynamo, as it were.
Gillian Tett, FT: Coronavirus
trade disruption could start a ‘dash for cash.
Lagarde is
right: we’re heading for 2008, or worse.
I happened to spend much of this afternoon with Prof Stephanie Kelton
discussing modern monetary theory and related issues ... amongst the many
things on which we agreed was the fact that on this issue Christine Lagarde is
right. We both think 2008 may look like a picnic compared with what is going to
hit us.
David Rosenberg Barrons interview, from Feb. 21: A Contrarian
economist warns of recession and deflation.
Given all the charts I’ve been posting here for the last few months, not
sure I agree, but:
Lakshman Achuthan: The Fed's
emergency rate cut was a big mistake.
… our research shows that the US economy came into this epidemic in more
resilient cyclical shape than the Fed -- and most economists -- realize. This
rate cut could do more harm than good. What they may not appreciate is that an
economy isn't always susceptible to shocks. Rather, it needs to be in a
cyclical "window of vulnerability" for a negative shock to tip it
into recession. … That's what "Japanification" looks like: slow
growth with repeated recessionary episodes. And the Fed has just stepped on the
gas on the road to Japanification.
Chris Dembik, SaxoBank: Credit Impulse
Update: A key engine of US growth is stalling.
This is certainly one of the most important charts for the U.S. economy.
Before COVID-19 outbreak, our leading indicator for the United States, credit
impulse, was already showing signs of weakness. It was running at minus 0.2% of
GDP, which is its lowest level since early 2019. The recent unexpected
contraction in demand for C&I loans (at minus 1% YoY in Q4 2019)
constitutes a clear warning signal that credit generation is doomed to
decelerate further, at least until mid-2020, and maybe beyond due to
coronavirus uncertainty. … Our message to investors is that the crisis is
likely to get worse before it gets better.
Nomura: "It May Be,
Then, That The Market Has Only Just Begun Staring Into The Abyss".
Global Recession
"Appears Inevitable" - Guggenheim's Minerd Fears Cascading 'Butterfly
Effect'.
What next?
I hate to admit this, but our proprietary models indicate that fair value
on the 10-year Treasury note will reach -50 basis points before year end and
the possibility that rates could overshoot to -2 percent.
Credit spreads have a long way to expand. BBB bonds could easily reach a
spread of 400 basis points over Treasurys while high yield would follow suit
with BB bonds at 750 basis points over and single B bonds at 1100 basis points
over. The risk is that it could be worse.
Fed’s “Emergency
Rate Cut” Reveals Recession Risks
Goldman Takes
Out The Chainsaw: Cuts US Q2 GDP To -5%; Says Recession Has Begun.
History says stock market unlikely to be rescued by emergency interest rate cuts.
"Fallen Angel" Day Arrives: $140 Billion In Energy Debt At
Risk Of Imminent Downgrade To Junk
(not just) for the ESG crowd:
Other fare:
Astronomers Detect Largest Explosion in the History of the Universe Since the Big Bang Itself.
MIT Tech Review: How to know if artificial intelligence is about to destroy civilization.
The Problem of an Aging Global Population, Shown by Country.
The Rising Ratio: In many countries, the old-age to
working-age ratio will almost double in the next 40 years.
Quotes of the Week:
Albert Edwards, strategist at Societe Generale:
“The toxic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic’s bursting of the Fed’s ‘everything
bubble’ has collided with the grotesquely over-leveraged and vulnerable U.S.
corporate sector -- this puts equity markets in an even more vulnerable
position. With an anomalously low testing rate the U.S. will as a consequence
suffer a high headline death rate, although the true death rate will be no
worse than elsewhere. The big death rate headlines will likely hit consumer
confidence very hard indeed and deepen an already likely deep recession and
equity market collapse, potentially causing a significant backlash against the
current U.S. administration. These are dangerous times indeed.”
"The big death rate headlines will likely hit consumer confidence
very hard indeed and deepen an already likely deep recession and equity market
collapse”
Laura Cooper, from: Welcome To
Japanification, Where Yields See No Floor.
“Beyond the fanfare of emergency cuts, the possibility of the zero lower
bound becoming the upper bound got a boost this week. What was previously a
floor for bond yields now looks like a trapdoor.”
From: COVID-19 Math
Explained, With Data.
“what is scary is that the rest of the world is just getting hit right
now. We do not know if Nigeria or Venezuela or Indonesia will be able to put in
social distancing controls on the entire population. I am inconvenienced by
being unable to leave my house. Many in America will temporarily lose
employment. In the third world people may starve if they cannot work.”
Tweet of the Week:
Photo of the Week:
and:
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