COVID-19 notes
NYT: Coronavirus in
the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count
Coronavirus:
Should We Aim for Herd Immunity Like Sweden?
And What Can Countries like the US or Netherlands Learn from It?
Sweden has famously followed a different coronavirus strategy than most
of the rest of the Developed world: Let the virus run loose, curb it enough to
make sure it doesn’t overwhelm the healthcare system like in Hubei, Italy or
Spain, but don’t try to eliminate it. They think stopping it completely is
impossible. The natural consequence is that most citizens get infected, and
that eventually slows down the epidemic. That’s why, in short, people call that
strategy “Herd Immunity”.
The other strategy is the Hammer and the Dance: Aggressively attack the
coronavirus by locking down the economy. Once curbed, jump into the Dance by
replacing the aggressive lockdown with cheap and intelligent measures to
control the virus.
Some countries and states, such as the Netherlands and the UK, or US
states like Texas and Georgia, have implemented measures in between the two
strategies. So which strategy is best?
Today, we’re going to use a lot of data and charts to answer these
questions:
1.
What is happening in Sweden?
2.
How bad is the virus, really? How many people
does it infect? Hurt? Kill?
3.
Who does it affect? Can we just protect the
weak?
4.
What’s best for the economy?
Here’s what you’re going to learn:
·
Sweden is suffering tremendously in cases and
deaths. Yet few people have been infected yet. They are a long way from Herd
Immunity.
·
Between 0.5% to 1.5% of infected die from the
coronavirus.
·
Left uncontrolled, it can kill between 0.4%
and 1% of the entire population.
·
Many more suffer conditions we don’t yet
understand.
·
Unfortunately, that death and sickness toll is
far from having bought us Herd Immunity anywhere in the world.
·
Only protecting those most at risk sounds
great. It’s a fantasy today.
·
Even if Sweden’s economy has remained mostly
open, it has still suffered as much as others.
·
From now on, it might start doing worse.
·
Sweden now has regrets. But not enough. It can
control the virus without a lockdown if it acknowledges its mistakes and takes
the right measures.
·
Other countries, like the US or the
Netherlands, are toying with a Herd Immunity strategy. It will only cause more
economic loss and death.
The cost of
staying open: Voluntary social distancing and lockdowns in the US
We provide evidence for the efficiency of lockdown policies in mitigating
both the overall costs to the economy as well as the spread of COVID-19. The
reason for this is that individuals engage in voluntary social distancing even
in the absence of lockdowns, once the virus takes hold in their area. Hence,
substantial economic costs are unavoidable, even when not locking down. Yet,
the additional lockdown-induced social distancing plays an important role in
preventing further medical costs. Indeed, for our estimates of the voluntary
and mandated social distancing responses, all US states that imposed a lockdown
would have incurred larger overall costs had they stayed open. Considering the
correct counterfactual costs is therefore key in informing policy decisions during
potential future waves of COVID-19.
Taleb: The Masks
Masquerade
Incompetence and Errors in Reasoning Around Face Covering
Six errors: 1) missing the compounding effects of masks, 2) missing the
nonlinearity of the probability of infection to viral exposures, 3) missing
absence of evidence (of benefits of mask wearing) for evidence of absence (of
benefits of mask wearing), 4) missing the point that people do not need
governments to produce facial covering: they can make their own, 5) missing the
compounding effects of statistical signals, 6) ignoring the Non-Aggression
Principle by pseudolibertarians (masks are also to protect others from you;
it’s a multiplicative process: every person you infect will infect others).
In fact masks (and faceshields) supplemented with constraints of
superspreader events can save us trillions of dollars in future lockdowns (and
lawsuits) and be potentially sufficient (under adequate compliance) to stem the
pandemic. Bureaucrats do not like simple solutions.
A new study shows that mandatory mask wearing is the most effective
measure during the Covid-19 epidemic:
Face Masks
Considerably Reduce COVID-19 Cases in Germany: A Synthetic Control Method
Approach
The Elevator
Arises As The Latest Logjam In Getting Back To Work
Regular Related Fare:
Morgan Stanley Economists Double Down on V-Shape
Global Recovery
Incubation Phase: Gradually and then Suddenly.
Key points
1) The May jobs “shocker” was largely a reflection of
CARES coverage of corporate payrolls.
2) The gap between Wall Street and Main Street appears
similar to the “incubation phase” of other major downturns.
3) Federal support remains essential, but is best
targeted toward preserving the “circular flow” of the economy by supporting the
basic incomes of families and incentives for productive investment, limited to
those actually experiencing economic damage.
4) After years of overborrowing to finance stock
repurchases (partly to offset dilution from stock-based compensation), many
corporations were overleveraged coming into this crisis. Bankruptcies are
likely to increase, but the government can support packaged restructurings and
bank purchase-and-assumption transactions without bailing out private
investors, who agree to accept these risks in a free-enterprise system.
5) Fed purchases of uncollateralized corporate bonds
violate FRA 13(3), CARES 4003(c)(3)(B), and potentially Article 1 Section 8 of
the U.S. Constitution.
6) Projects that are enabled only by zero interest
rates are most likely projects that are speculative and unproductive.
7) Improved market internals currently encourage an
agnostic near-term outlook (though not a bullish one) despite several features
that suggest the improvement is fragile.
8) Valuations are again near historic extremes.
9) Continued dispersion within the U.S. equity market
suggests particular risk for richly valued large-cap stocks.
The scale of
this crisis is unprecedented: now we need the radical thinking to address it
..Of course this is likely to be temporary. As a matter of fact,
pandemics do always end, if not well. There will, then, be an eventual recovery
from this position. But, to pretend that this will be any time soon is naive,
in the extreme. As I have said since mid-March, and long before the government did,
the economic costs of this pandemic are going to be substantial, and long-term.
…
In that case we are not going to get a V-shaped recovery, with a quick
bounceback. We are, instead, going to see a fundamental change in
the level of economic activity for some time to come. That is precisely why I
do think radical thinking, including a Green New Deal and the processes of
change implicit within it, is necessary now. It is why I also think we need to
radically rethink our relationship with what is supposedly called government
debt, which is why I have issued a myth buster on that issue this morning.
And yet many on the left seem to have no understanding on this. For them
affordability is constrained. And debt repayment remains paramount. One of the
reasons why I felt down in the last week was the consequence of exchanges with
supposed progressive economists a week or so ago.
They were vehemently anti-MMT. This now appears to be a necessary sign of
virility or acceptability in the left of centre think tank world. John Weeks
appeared quite without shame in calling MMT a cult on Twitter yesterday.
The economists in question suggested that the public were right to be
worried about debt, and that the goal should be to constrain it. There were
issues of ‘sound finance’ involved, one said. Another described the ‘moral
dimension‘ to debt and suggested it a
sign of failure. These narratives play straight into the hands of the right. It
is as if they wished for austerity.
My belief that their comprehension of what debt really is, what it does,
what its benefits are, and what it can do to deliver the economic
transformation we require are exceptionally limited. But, I stress, these are
people from the left, and I see the same attitudes in just about every left of
centre think tank right now.
Stephanie Kelton: Learn To Love
Trillion-Dollar Deficits
Our country’s myth about federal debt, explained.
Regular Fare:
"Losing The
Bottom": Market Capitulates On The Idea That Normalization Is Ever Again
Possible
"with every new crisis problems have become deeper and more difficult to manage" which was to be expected in a world in which constant bailouts from central banks prevent a normal corrective process to occur as the imbalances and excesses continue to pile up resulting in ever greater shocks to the system, requiring ever greater bailouts, and even greater debt, i.e., borrowing from the future until, as Eric Peters, recently said "We Have Reached The Point Where The Entirety Of Future Prosperity Has Been Pulled To The Present."
The Risk of the
“Bailout Of Everything”
The rise in bond defaults is a consequence of previous high leverage in a
weakening operating income environment. This should not be a concern if
creative destruction works to improve the economy, as inefficient companies are
taken over by efficient ones and new investors re-structure challenged
businesses to make them competitive. The big problem is that massive liquidity
and low rates are perpetuating overcapacity and keeping an extraordinary amount
of zombie firms alive.
Albert Edwards:
We Are Transitioning From "The Ice Age" To "The Great Melt"
(not just) for the ESG crowd:
CarbonTracker: Decline and Fall: The Size & Vulnerability of the
Fossil Fuel System
CO2 levels hit record high despite emissions dip from
coronavirus
Is humanity
doomed to wrestle over the planet’s thermostat?
An economic lab experiment reveals the complexities of governing solar
geoengineering
Global Insect
Collapse Driven By Industrial Farming, Says New 'Insect Atlas'
VW Launches In-Home Charging, Plans "Complete Charging Network" For Its New $33,000 ID3 EV
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