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Monday, May 3, 2021

2021-05-03

Regular Fare:

 

Mark Blyth – An Inflated Fear of Inflation?

 

Doctorow: Political economy vs inflation

 

No, Bonds Aren’t Overvalued. They’re A Warning Sign.




 


The American Gordian Knot and Alexander the Great is not in sight

While the big picture helps us understand the context for the current predicament, it is crucial to recognize that the U.S. is facing 20 formidable headwinds within the political, cultural, social and economic realm. Moreover, they are all intertwined in complex feedback mechanisms

 

 

Quotes of the Week:

 

Jim Reid: “at this stage it’s hard to see what gets us out of this perpetual high debt, high intervention, low default, low productivity loop.”

 

 

Bubble Fare:

 

The Stock Market’s Collapse is Near.

 

Hussman: Counting the Chickens Twice

 



 

 

Crypto Fare:

 

In Praise of Bitcoin

 

The Goldman Sachs of Crypto

 

THE POWER OF RANDOMNESS: ALGORAND AND THE FUTURE OF BLOCKCHAINS

The Interview - Crypto · Featuring Silvio Micali & Ash Bennington 

 

 

(not just) for the ESG crowd:

 

The Climate Solution Actually Adding Millions of Tons of CO2 Into the Atmosphere

 

Canada has 20 per cent of the world’s freshwater reserves — this is how to protect it

 


COVID Fare:



UK government report: Covid-19 Response Spring 2021


 

 

 

Pics of the Week:

 


 

 



EXTRA [controversial or non-market-related] FARE:

 

ESG Fare:

 

Welsh: All the Futures that Will Not Happen

Note that first graph very carefully. There is NO sign in the actual numbers that we are doing anything of importance to stop this trend. Kyoto and Paris have achieved nothing, which is to be expected, since they were voluntary.

Let’s put this all together: massively rising temperatures; more extreme weather events; changes in climate, including rainfall patterns; massive depletion of aquifers at the same time as we can expect many rivers to lose volume or dry up; no effective political action.

We’ve just had ourselves a lesson in what exponential growth looks like. There is every reason to expect that at least some parts of ecosystem collapse and climate change will act that way: When break points are reached, they will accelerate, and nothing we can do will stop them. Worst case scenario is a hothouse Earth in which humanity goes extinct, but entirely plausible scenarios see the Earth losing half or more of its carrying capacity.

The process will involve a lot of death, suffering, and war.

There’s a decent chance we get a marine inundation event. Rather than water rising by small amounts every year, at some point it rises very quickly, and large amounts of the coast flood permanently.

Remember that the “moderate” estimates have almost all been wrong. The “worst case” scenarios, for decades now, have been coming in correctly.

All of which is to say, whatever future you think you’re going to have, you need to run it past this lens. Does it survive this?

The clock is ticking, we are running out of time to do whatever it is we want to do, and it is very likely that we are past the point of no return; that even if we were to go all-out to stop climate change and environmental collapse (we won’t), we could — at best — limit it to “losing half the population.”

 

Why Progress Always Required Space Travel

… BUT none of this matters in a larger sense because the real problem isn’t running out of lithium or copper or helium or any other simple substance like that. It’s destroying the biosphere, climate and ecosphere.

Earth’s true wealth is an intricate web of life, from creatures simpler than bacteria all the way up to blue whales, including plants and fungi and insects and a wild variety of creatures we don’t understand or haven’t even discovered.

That, along with Earth’s climate, is what you can only get on Earth, at least within the solar system. That’s what we’re destroying.

So… space exploitation? Why not. It may help deal with some bottlenecks. But it still won’t let us continue GROWTH and the standard progress model, because the real limit to growth is simply that if we go past the Earth’s carrying capacity — which I will say, despite some disagreeing with me — we unequivocally have, we then start destroying that carrying capacity and all the things we must have that only Earth supplies.

Earth is the Jewel, the most important place in the universe for humans, right now. We cannot do without it and what is important about it is not copper or lithium, it is precisely climate and LIFE (ecosystems). Our destruction of those two things is what makes the standard model of progress impossible.

We’ve got a limited resource, created by processes of evolution which take millions of years to work. We are so ignorant we cannot even create a self-sustaining biosphere; we cannot fix what we are breaking.

Anyone and any system destroying the Earth’s climate and ecosphere is thus, then, doing the greatest wrong possible for the future of humanity, and of much life on Earth. Our mass genocide of other species is a slow form of strangling ourselves.

Space can help, but it won’t get us around the real issues. Only true respect for the genuine non-renewable resources we MUST have and which exist only on Earth can create a positive future for humanity and for all the species we have held hostage and not yet murdered, who are unfortunate enough to be trapped on Earth with us.

 

Why Collapse Is Inevitable: The Truth About Climate Change

There are multiple extinction level events converging on humanity but climate change is the event that makes societal collapse inevitable.

The reality of climate change is worse than most people realise.

400ppm = 3°C+

James Hansen, 2008: "Human-made climate change is delayed by ocean and ice sheet response times. Warming ‘in the pipeline’, mostly attributable to slow feedbacks, is now about 2°C. No additional forcing is required to raise global temperature to at least the level of the Pliocene."

James Hansen, 2018: "the results confirm the tight control of CO2 on global temperature. This figure implies that the eventual warming for 407ppm CO2 will be about 3.5°C.

We can quickly research online that 400ppm of atmospheric CO2 results in a Pliocene-like global temperature of 3°C to 4°C.

This is where the earth is headed, and beyond, as a certainty of physics. Temperature stabilisation below 1.5°C or 2°C is a cruel fantasy.

The purpose of the IPCC, a governmental agency controlled by fossil fuel interests, is to keep the public unaware of the truth so that societies can continue to function as normal.

There are no real-world carbon budgets or scenarios which enable humanity to burn more fossil fuels with a % chance of staying below 1.5°C or 2°C (or even 3°C). In the real world, humanity is in 1 trillion tonnes of CO2 DEBT.

Decarbonisation ACCELERATES warming.

James Hansen, 2011: "Global warming has been limited, as aerosol cooling partially offsets GHG warming. But aerosols remain airborne only several days, so they must be pumped into the air faster and faster to keep pace with increasing long-lived GHGs. However, concern about health effects of particulate air pollution is likely to lead to eventual reduction of human-made aerosols. Thereupon the Faustian payment will come due."

Hansen calculates that the global cooling effect of aerosols is -1.6 watts per square metre. This equates to 1.2°C of cooling which means that particulate air pollution, mostly from coal-burning, is protecting humanity from half of global warming.

Earth's Real Climate Sensitivity is Very High.


 


Art Berman: What will happen to world population if fossil energy is abandoned?

Extreme population decline is the part of the renewable utopia that no one talks about

(I'm all for it but I doubt most true believers understand)




COVID Fare:

 

Halt Covid Vaccine, Prominent Scientist Tells CDC

In a public comment to the CDC, molecular biologist and toxicologist Dr. Janci Chunn Lindsay, Ph.D., called to immediately halt Covid vaccine production and distribution. Citing fertility, blood-clotting concerns (coagulopathy), and immune escape, Dr. Lindsay explained to the committee the scientific evidence showing that the coronavirus vaccines are not safe.

Stephanie Seneff, Ph.D., an expert in protein synthesis, believes that Dr. Lindsay’s hypothesis is correct. “I absolutely share these concerns,” Dr. Seneff, who is a senior research scientist at MIT, wrote to me in a sobering email.

“The potential for blood clotting disorders and the potential for sterilization are only part of the story. There are other potential long-term effects of these vaccines as well, such as autoimmune disease and immune escape, whereby the vaccines administered to immune-compromised people accelerate the mutation rate of the virus so as to render both naturally acquired and vaccine-induced antibodies no longer effective.”

 

The novel coronavirus’ spike protein plays additional key role in illness

Salk researchers and collaborators show how the protein damages cells, confirming COVID-19 as a primarily vascular disease

 

The BBC & Bloomberg on India: B stands for bullshit.

Unless you made an early getaway to Planet Drongo before the lockdown, you will have read pretty much everywhere that “India sees world’s highest daily cases amid oxygen shortage”. In fact, the BBC tells us that “some people” have died waiting for oxygen, the Indian health service is “completely overwhelmed” and the country now has “sixteen million cases”.

So it’s a disaster, right? Well actually, no – it isn’t. The Indian health ministry has already made it clear that the Covid19 variant they’re dealing with this year has “a considerably lower death rate than the previous version”.

Go to the Worldometer site, and you’ll see that India’s deaths per million is a minute 134: that’s 7% of the US and French figures, 6% of the UK and Italy’s and the lowest by far of any country in the Top 30 for cases.

Virtually no vaccination has been undertaken in India (only 1.3% are fully vaccinated) and the country is not using lockdowns. The Times of India has just denied the BBC’s ‘deaths from oxygen shortage’ fakery.

What India IS doing, however, is employing the anti-inflammatory drugs tocilizumab and itolizumab and the antivirals favipiravir and hydroxychloroquine on a very wide scale. Go to Pharma site/accolyte spaces, and you’ll see all four drugs being rubbished: the Pharmafia and their bureaucratic whores don’t want any signs of a success to get out.

But the Truth already is out there: India is doing spectacularly well without either vaccines or lockdown. You won’t find that reality expressed anywhere in the Western MSM, but the facts show that its infection management drugs have delivered one of the lowest case to death rates on the planet.

 

The Israeli People Committee’s April Report on the Lethal Impact of Vaccinations

The Israeli People Committee (IPC), a civilian body made of leading Israeli health experts, has published its April report into the Pfizer vaccine’s side effects.* The findings are catastrophic on every possible level. Their verdict is that “there has never been a vaccine that has harmed as many people.”  The report is long and detailed. I will outline just some of the most devastating findings presented in the report…

 

Significant Jump This Week in Reported Injuries, Deaths After COVID Vaccine

 

Why are the COVID vaccines so toxic?

 

Oxford jab ‘could be banned for under-40s’ after blood clot reports double

 

 

CO-Vid of the Week:

Dr John Lee: Covid: is the cure worse than the disease?

 

 

COVID Conspiracy Fare:

The Global Deep State: A New World Order Brought to You by COVID-19.

 

India’s “Covid Crisis” has been hijacked – The Mainstream Media are lying to you



 

Orwellian Fare:

 

How science has been corrupted

The pandemic has revealed a darkly authoritarian side to expertise

This could be viewed as part of a larger shift within institutions from a culture of persuasion to one in which coercive moral decrees emanate from somewhere above, hard to locate precisely, but conveyed in the ethical style of HR. Weakened by the uncontrolled dissemination of information and attendant fracturing of authority, the institutions that ratify particular pictures of what is going on in the world must not merely assert a monopoly of knowledge, but place a moratorium on the asking of questions and noticing of patterns.

One of the most striking features of the present, for anyone alert to politics, is that we are increasingly governed through the device of panics that give every appearance of being contrived to generate acquiescence in a public that has grown skeptical of institutions built on claims of expertise. And this is happening across many domains. Policy challenges from outsiders presented through fact and argument, offering some picture of what is going on in the world that is rival to the prevailing one, are not answered in kind, but are met rather with denunciation. In this way, epistemic threats to institutional authority are resolved into moral conflicts

The spectacular success of “public health” in generating fearful acquiescence in the population during the pandemic has created a rush to take every technocratic-progressive project that would have poor chances if pursued democratically, and cast it as a response to some existential threat. In the first week of the Biden administration, the Senate majority leader urged the president to declare a “climate emergency” and assume powers that would authorise him to sidestep Congress and rule by executive fiat. Ominously, we are being prepared for “climate lockdowns”.

Early in 2020, public opinion accepted the necessity of a short-term suspension of basic liberties on the supposition that, once the emergency had passed, we could go back to being not-China. But this is to assume a robustness of liberal political culture that may not be warranted. Lord Sumption, a jurist and retired member of the UK’s Supreme Court, makes a case for regarding lockdowns in the West as the crossing of a line that is not likely to get uncrossed.

In the US as in the UK, the government has immense powers. “The only thing that protects us from the despotic use of that power is a convention that we have decided to discard.”

It has been said, a people gets the government it deserves.

 


Tweets of the Week: 

Taylor Hudak: We are living in a time where...

1. Elites (WEF) are creating a globalist future for us all (that we didn't vote for)

2. Our economy is being destroyed

3. There's mass coercion to take an experimental vaccine

4. There's censorship & deplatforming of dissenting voices

Why?

 

 

 

Geo-Political Fare:

Johnstone: The Day the World Ended

The day the world ended began like any other day. People woke up, had their coffee, checked their social media, kissed their loved ones, went to work.

Nobody knew it was coming. The news reporters and pundits hadn’t been informing them that the US and its allies had been simultaneously ramping up aggressions against two nuclear-armed nations in a way that could easily lead to something going catastrophically wrong, or explained to them what this could mean for them and their loved ones. The mass media had never let the truth interfere with the military agendas of their government before, and, as it turns out, they never would.

Nobody knew it was coming, so nobody opposed the dangerous acts of brinkmanship that led up to it. Nobody resisted as the Democrats manufactured consent for escalation after escalation against Russia. Nobody resisted as the Republicans manufactured consent for escalation after escalation against China. Nobody objected as war ships were moved, as troops were deployed, as Nuclear Posture Reviews became more and more hawkish and aggressive, as new armageddon weapons were manufactured and fielded, as proxy conflicts were backed, as war planes encroached upon sovereign airspace, as missiles were readied for swift deployment.

So it simply did not feature in anyone’s mind that this could be the day they and their loved ones die in a nuclear holocaust….

 

 

New(ish) Section – CaitOz Quotes of the Week:

There are many people who understand that we are ruled by sociopaths who manipulate our society into alignment with their greedy and power-grabbing agendas, and that most of our world’s problems arise from this fact. It is not difficult to see and understand this for yourself; there are more than enough readily available facts in evidence to make it abundantly clear to anyone with the time and willingness to look. Yet it remains a relatively fringe understanding, far short of the numbers it would take to make a real difference in our world…

The problem is not that we are lacking in sufficient evidence that we are living in an unacceptably dystopian oligarchic empire, the problem is that people can’t see the evidence that is already available to them. Science already tells us that hard facts aren’t enough to change someone’s mind, and that we have whole cognitive defense systems in place to protect our preexisting perceptions. It doesn’t matter how much information is handed to someone if they are fighting like hell to prevent the death-like experience of having their entire worldview ripped away from them. The trick is finding new and innovative ways to breach those defenses.

 


Other Quotes of the Week:

Kunstler: This was only one of countless mysteries orbiting around the dimming star that is Joe Biden. The biggest one, the planet Jupiter of all puzzlements, is how the guy managed to get elected occupant of the oval office. Or, more to the point, how did others manage to get him elected? I mean, considering those few embarrassing campaign forays from the basement to a bunch of empty parking lots back in the fall of 2020, not to mention the supernatural victory on Super Tuesday that rescued his pitiful old ass from the glue factory of broken-down political war-horses.

 

Yarvin: The sooner we stop pretending that this isn’t happening to us, the better results we can get. Wouldn’t it be nice to get to Caesar, Augustus and Marcus Aurelius, without passing through Sulla and Marius, Crassus and Spartacus? Alas, from here and now it seems unlikely. But I can’t see why every serious person wouldn’t want to try.

 

@pdxsag: Prior to 2020 I thought half the people in the world were reliable mutuals, if just needing the right encouragement. Now I think maybe 14% of the people in the world are capable of thinking for themselves, and 2-5% of standing up against petty tyranny.

 

 

Other Fare:

The frivolity of the pundit right

"One must ruthlessly write what one knows to be the truth, or else shut up."

There are three kinds of dissidents: (a) anons, (b) pundits who still care what people think, and (c) outsiders who DGAF. All these groups are great; real greatness can be achieved in any of them; and good friends I have in each. But each has its problems.

The problem with (c) is that it’s too hard. It takes a lot of luck to get there and stay there. It’s quite inconsistent with doing anything else with your life—and this under conditions of very mild repression, historically speaking. And the more you succeed, the more dangerous your position becomes. I would recommend the outside way to only one kind of young person: le trustafarian. And it has to really be your calling.

The problem with (a) is that it’s too easy—nothing binds you to reality. The dissident anons create the best art, yet never without some slight sense of playing tennis without the net. Yet this complete, even excessive, artistic freedom is balanced by challenges in opsec that compare only to general aviation. If you are not meticulous enough to fly a Cessna, you are not meticulous enough to shitpost.

The problem with (b) is that you are always policing yourself. Not only do your readers never really know what you really believe—you never really know yourself. In practice, it is much easier to police your own thoughts than your own words. When choosing between two ideas, the temptation to prefer the safer one is almost irresistible. This is a source of cognitive distortion which the anons and outsiders do not experience. (Though anons do suffer something of the opposite, a reflex to provoke.)

As a pundit, you sense this stress in every bone of your body; you can never show it to your readers. This creates a deep dishonesty in the parasocial relationship between writer and reader—like a marriage that can never escape some foolish first-date fib. The falsity, like the blue in blue cheese, flows through and flavors every particle of your content. Neither you nor your readers can ever be sure whether you are speaking the truth, lying to them, or lying to yourself—but you are constantly doing all three. You may still be very entertaining—enlightening, even. All your work is ephemeral, and once you die only your relatives will remember you. And it’s not even your fault.

Out here in group (c), I can tell you that Homo sapiens is not a neurologically uniform population (like golden retrievers), and also that the Holocaust happened (like you learned in Holocaust class). While I cannot imagine what evidence could change my mind on either of these points, if it does I will be the first to tell you. (Don’t bother sending me your favorite Holocaust revisionist essay—I have probably read it.) This clarity is no function of any special personal virtue—just my job of living in group (c).

From my perspective, both the anonymous and official dissidents exhibit a kind of unserious frivolity, but a very different kind. The frivolity of the anon is imaginative, surreal and playful at best, merely puerile at worst. The frivolity of the pundit has no upside; in every paragraph he is breaking Koestler’s rule, and he knows it; the best he can do is to shut up selectively about the things he cannot write about.

And his mens rea, too, is awful. He is selling hope. He is selling answers. Pity the man whose life has brought him to the position of selling answers in which he does not believe, or which he is forced to believe, or which he must force himself to believe. However sophisticated and erudite he may be, he is just a high-end grifter. His little magazine is a Macedonian troll-farm with a PhD.

 


Satirical Fare:

CDC’S GUIDELINES FOR WHEN IT’S SAFE TO STILL WEAR LOUNGE PANTS.

 


 

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