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Sunday, September 18, 2022

2022-09-18

*** denotes well-worth reading in full at source (even if excerpted extensively here)

Economic and Market Fare:

*** Tchir: CPI, FedEx, & The Failure Of Economic 'Models'

Backward looking data seems to tell one story.

Contemporaneous data seems to tell another (especially if you strip out the backward looking data, that is embedded in the contemporaneous data).

Virtually everything that I see as a leading indicator, points to economic issues down the road – I have been in the ‘recession this year’ camp and continue to be.

The FedEx CEO’s warning should be taken seriously.

Their critical role in today’s economy gives them insights that many do not have, and their CEO just warned about global economic problems! .....



In response to the surge in prices that began in earnest in the summer of 2021 central banks all around the world are hiking interest rates. When taken together, a series of national policy moves add up to the most widespread tightening of monetary policy since the start of the fiat money era in the early 1970s.

The tightening of monetary policy is compounded by a similar shift in fiscal policy. This attracts far less headline space than interest rates, but it too is unprecedented. The share of countries that are tightening their fiscal stance is greater today than it was during the global austerity drive after 2010, or in the heyday of the Washington consensus in the 1990s.

... Though there is interdependence of central bank decision-making, what we have not seen so far is any effort at explicit coordination. The lack of coordination is a problem because if interest rate decisions are taken in isolation from each other this may well lead to an excessive tightening.

... As former IMF chief economist Maurice Obstfeld explains in a post for the Peterson Institute once we allow for interaction between economies, the effect ought to be to moderate interest rate increases rather than to amplify them

... If you put the combined effect of monetary and fiscal policy together, you arrive at very grim scenario for the world economy.

... We should not succumb to the blackmail of inflation scaremongering. We should call the current policy conjuncture by its name. It is the most concerted effort to slow down growth and employment in the interests of monetary stability that we have seen since the 1980s. In 2020 we saw the remarkable power of coordinated monetary and fiscal policy in keeping the economy afloat. In 2022 in the US and many other countries we are now seeing coordination in the opposite direction, with both monetary and fiscal policy pushing towards contraction. This is not a combination with which we have much recent experience, notably in the United States. We should be clear about the risks that we are running.




Here's my understanding of the current collective wisdom of the market:
  • Both inflation and the US economy are "running hot."
  • The Fed needs to boost rates dramatically to slow the economy and bring down inflation.
  • The US economy is very likely to suffer another recession as a result.
  • The outlook is not so terrible, however, since once it is clear that inflation is under control the Fed will be able to lower rates.
  • The Fed will hike the funds rate to a peak of 4.5% over the next 6-7 months, then cut rates to 3.75% by mid-2024.
  • Inflation, currently running about 8%, will fall back to 2% or so by the end of next year
As I've pointed out in previous posts, however, the Fed and the market are ignoring some very obvious signs which strongly suggest that the Fed's best course of action is to NOT follow this script:  1) the dollar is extremely strong, 2) commodity prices are falling, 3) the M2 money supply has not grown at all for the past 6 months because the federal government is no longer sending Covid stimulus checks to the public, 4) measured inflation is already declining, and 5) inflation expectations have declined significantly, down 120 bps since early March (inflation expectations peaked at 3.69% and are now 2.49%). Moreover, yesterday FedEx shocked the market by suggesting that demand has all but collapsed. All of this suggests money is already tight enough to impact the economy, and more could be destructive. .....




1.3 Million Jobs Were Result Of Double-Counting This Year, Heritage Economist Says



Quotes of the Week:

Tooze: Wages are the price of labour. If wages are not rising along with other prices, then you are not dealing with a general inflation at all, but rather a one-sided redistributional push by capital at the expense of labour.


 ...



Charts: 
1:



Bubble Fare:




(not just) for the ESG crowd:

It’s all but guaranteed the world will see another year of weather disasters
that destroy homes, ruin crops, disrupt shipping and threaten lives.



..... The reason I think it is necessary to explain precisely what the electrical grid is and how it is made up and the components which comprise it is because most people have no clue how complex and complicated this system of energy delivery really is. Furthermore, even fewer people realize what kinds of losses (see these articles here and here) are incurred by this delivery system, which are extremely substantial. One thing I constantly see people who advocate EVs talk about is the efficiency of an EV. This is true; however, the devil is in the details. While EVs are more efficient than ICE cars, the delivery system which provides the energy source for ICE cars is more efficient by far than the system which delivers the energy source for EVs. .....


This post assesses the IRA as both an inflation reduction tool and as a response to climate change. Unsurprisingly, the IRA does almost nothing to address inflation. Storm’s assessment that the climate response elements of the IRA are doomed to fail in achieving an energy transition because of their reliance on positive price incentives and minor fiscal stimulus shows the IRA has little to offer. A minor step in support of renewable energy isn’t much of a result for Biden’s flagship economic package. 


Doomberg: Science by Press Release

Each year, approximately 200 million metric tons of ethylene are produced at factories known colloquially as crackers. (That’s more than 50 pounds for every living human on Earth.) Crackers are marvels of chemical engineering and operate at an almost unimaginable scale, complexity, and efficiency. In ExxonMobil’s giant Baytown cracker (below) and similar facilities around the world, ethane is cracked into ethylene and hydrogen around the clock, feeding the world’s nearly insatiable appetite for the stuff.

... The article that understandably caught Johnston’s eye draws attention to a recent scientific publication with some bold claims (emphasis added throughout):
“A team of researchers led by Meenesh Singh at University of Illinois Chicago has discovered a way to convert 100% of carbon dioxide captured from industrial exhaust into ethylene, a key building block for plastic products.
.... While the point of today’s piece is not to debunk this particular example of hyperbole-masquerading-as-research but is instead to demonstrate this as a symptom of a broader disease infecting much of modern academia, we can’t effectively do the latter without spending at least a few paragraphs driving home the former. Let’s dig in.



Sci Fare:

A moon shredded by the planet’s gravity 160 million years ago could help explain its rings and odd tilt


A medical entomologist points to metabolism, body odor and mindset



Other Fare:

Cass Sunstein’s latest TED Talk of a book offers the kind of technocratic whimsy that left and right can agree to hate

If you open a copy of the Encyclopedia of Political Ideology and look up “technocratic neoliberalism,” the dominant policy paradigm since the end of the Cold War in the contemporary West, you will find a picture of Cass Sunstein—or at least you would, if such an encyclopedia existed. 


Nineteen tips and we are just getting started.


Intelligence, ethics, and the inner lives of animals

I OWE CHICKENS AN APOLOGY. Not only have I been eating them until very recently, but I have refused to even consider the possibility of a chicken having any kind of inner life. ...

... Now, so many years later, I’ve found my way to animal behaviorist Justin Gregg’s brilliant new book If Nietzsche Were a Narwhal: What Animal Intelligence Reveals About Human Stupidity. ....

... It is no surprise that Gregg is pessimistic about how humans have used their abilities as why specialists, and he thinks that there is a chance that humans might not even survive over another century. The prospect of nuclear war and the climate crisis suggest, in Gregg’s view, that the end is possible. In the meantime, developing a consciousness of animals as beings who are capable of metacognition, of having individual personalities and so on, points to the need for a new ethics. This new set of basic premises would abandon the centering principle that the animal-human relationship must always be of one having dominion over the other.


It is time to accept that the virus cannot be stopped and will continue to evolve




Contrarian Perspectives

Extra [i.e. Controversial] Fare:

*** denotes well-worth reading in full at source (even if excerpted extensively here)


Regular Fare:


In my section I discuss the evidence that Human Rights Chief, Michelle Bachelet was trying to extend the hand of diplomacy to China and her diplomatic, respectful efforts were internally undermined which begs the question – who is controlling the UN? 

I also look at the recent uptick in Israeli aggression against Syria and examine the complex reasons why. The region is heading for an escalation – between Hezbollah and Israel, Palestine and Israel and Syria and Israel or all three. ...




The current Trump investigation is just the latest chapter of a long-brewing civil liberties nightmare.


Smith: Escalation: Recent Events Suggest Mounting Economic Danger

A common refrain from people who are critical of alternative economists is that we have been predicting crisis for so long that “eventually we will be right.” These are generally people who don’t understand the nature of economic decline – It’s like an avalanche that builds over time, then breaks and quickly escalates as it flows down the mountain. What they don’t grasp is that they are in the middle of an economic collapse RIGHT NOW, and they just can’t see it because they have been acclimated to the presence of the snow and cold.

Economic decline is a process that takes many years, and while you might get an event like the market crash of 1929 or the crash of 2008, these moments of panic are nothing more than the wreckage left behind by the great wave of tumbling ice that everyone should have seen coming far in advance, but they refused.

In 2022 the job of warning people is far easier than it used to be because we are well past the midpoint of the process of decline. But, believe it or not, I still get people today who claim that we analysts are “doom mongers.” The power of willful ignorance is truly amazing. ...


Many think too little serotonin causes depression and antidepressants can correct that imbalance. But psychiatrists stopped believing that theory long ago

Psychiatry has known for some time that the “serotonin theory” of depression, the notion that too little of the brain chemical can be a cause of depression, a decades-old hypothesis and deeply entrenched trope in society that helped promote a class of antidepressants taken by millions of Canadians, is wrong, says Montreal psychiatrist Dr. Joel Paris.

“You want to know why it took so long for the truth to come out,” Paris, a professor of psychiatry at McGill University, wrote in an email. “I am afraid this has something to do with the toxic relationship between industry and academia.” Drug companies encourage doctors to prescribe often, and heavily, he said, and have “paid many academic psychiatrists to promote their products.”



Unsustainability / Climate Fare:

"Forests are the largest terrestrial carbon sink for the planet, both from the production of tree biomass and soil carbon storage"

The first ‘World Scientists Warning to Humanity’ dates back to 1992, when more than 1700 scientists, including most living Nobel laureates, called on humankind to halt environmental destruction and make fundamental changes to the relationship with the natural world. On August 31, 2022, these scientists issued another urgent “warning to humanity,” this time about the global impact of tree extinctions.

A third of the world’s tree species are currently threatened with extinction. That scale extinction will lead to major biodiversity losses in other species and alter the cycling of carbon, water and nutrients in the world’s ecosystems. Tree extinction will also undermine the livelihoods of the billions of people who depend on trees and their benefits. ...



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Endemic Fare:

I've continued to come across too much excellent COVID-related content (with contrarian evidence-based points-of-view!!) to link to it all
Read everything by eugyppius; el gato malo; Mathew Crawford; Steve Kirsch; Jessica Rose!
Paul Alexander, Berenson, Chudov, Lyons-Weiler, Toby Rogers are also go-to mainstays; a list to which I have added Andreas Oehler, Joey Smalley (aka Metatron) and, Julius Ruechel; Denninger worth staying on top of too for his insights, and especially his colorful language; and Norman Fenton; Marc Girardot; plus Walter Chesnut (on twitter); new additions: Sheldon Yakiwchuk and Aaron Kheriarty; I will of course continue to post links to key Peter McCullough material, and Geert Vanden Bossche, and Robert Malone, and Martin Kulldorff, and Jay Bhattacharya, and Sucharit Bhakdi, and Pierre Kory, and Harvey Risch, and Michael Yeadon, and John Ioannidis, and Paul Marik, and Tess Lawrie, and Zelenko, and Dolores Cahill, and [local prof] Byram Bridle, and Ryan Cole, and…
but going forward, my linking to material by those mainstays mentioned above will be reduced to key excerpts and/or essential posts


For a more complete synopsis of the revealed data on the lack of safety and effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines, feel free to download and share with friends and family the attached powerpoint pdf.


Conclusion: "The Ontario data show that vaccination currently makes little difference in terms of hospitalization and death rates for those below age 60."


A superb book on how we've been fooled by vaccines. Written by Anonymous.

......... Summary
This is the red pill in book form.
The only problem is getting people to read it.
For fun, ask your doctor what she thought of the book.



... I mention this because I asked one of the California physicians I spoke with to share the most noteworthy COVID-19 vaccine injuries they had come across. These cases were very similar to what I observed within my log and what many here have observed as well. In previous times, either of our logs would have been sufficient to at least pause the vaccine program; instead, they joined the countless other safety signals that were also ignored by every Western government. ...

.... As I reviewed these cases, I saw they raised a key question I have not yet addressed here. What on earth drives people, particularly doctors to fanatically push the (frequently lethal) vaccine onto those who so deeply trust them? 

After I thought this over, I realized I have avoided that topic because it’s a difficult one to tackle and I am ultimately not sure how to answer that question. Since that is not a good excuse, I consulted quite a few mentors and colleagues over the past week, and this article will be a composite of our ideas. ............

.... The key points of the series are as follows:
  • Most doctors are well-intentioned human beings who have been acclimated to a system that conditions this harmful behavior and fosters an inability to recognize anything is wrong with it. I often repeat this theme and it is not to defend my profession, but rather to emphasize that any of us could become a gaslighter if we went through that same medical education.
  • Our religion of science conditions people to doubt their own observations and instead defer to “scientific evidence.” ..........
  • Since there is so much information out there you need to use in your day-to-day practice of medicine, it is nearly impossible to sufficiently research the safety and efficacy of each medication you use. .....


... In August, he wrote an article for UK Column that every parent, teacher, and basically anyone that cares about children should read before going anywhere near them with a COVID needle.

.... As the Christian theologian Dietrich Bonhoeffer maintained:
The test of the morality of a society is what it does for its children.
It is time to put the children first rather than suffer “the insufferable arrogance of the constantly wrong”.


Tessa: Crime
Crime perfectly encapsulated and concealed in one hospital ad.

… for crying out loud, just look at this ad!!

The kids deserve the truth. It’s as simple as that. My prayer is for adults on all sides of this debate—those who saw through the crap early on and those who are just figuring it out now—to come together and deliver love and justice to the kids. We’ve all been duped at different times, in different ways—but we have been given hearts and brains for a reason, and we have the power to get unduped, and the time for it is now.

...
CLINICAL IMPACT. Radiologists should be aware of a possible association of COVID-19 mRNA vaccination and myocarditis and recognize the role of cardiac MRI in the assessment of suspected myocarditis after COVID-19 vaccination.


Tweets & Quotes of the Week:

Redfield: “Tony and I are friends, but we don't agree on this at all,” “The potential for conspiracy is really on the other side. The conspiracy is Collins, Fauci, and the established scientific community that has acted in an antithetical way to science.”

Scoops McGoo: Logical conclusion? Worldwide regulatory capture.



CO-VIDs of the Week:

Prof Norman Fenton: HOW FLAWED STATISTICS HAVE MANIPULATED THE COVID NARRATIVE




Anecdotal Fare:

This week's NON-fatal "adverse events" include a German rapper's wife confined to wheelchair due to mystery illness, and further "vaxxidents" in Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina (2), Germany & Italy








Pushback Fare:

Canadians rise up to tell their leader what they think of him






The inclusion of SADS as a condition to worry about in young children raises questions about whether it may be connected with COVID jabs in students.



COVID Corporatocracy / Idiocracy / Conspiracy Fare:

the problem with conspiracies is that even when they work, it's hard to make them last

.... watching the whole of the ranks of public health and politics close around this unsupported belief beggaring claim as iron bar certainty and launch offensives to discredit disagreement was really quite astonishing, especially as some clearly knew better and some likely knew for certain.

now the latter, we can understand, that was covering up culpability in what was not only a crime, but perhaps the most harm done to the world by the fewest people in the entire history of the human race manhattan projected included. i mean, if they created this, daszak, baric, and shi zhengli make oppenheimer look like a piker.

but what of the former? what of the folks who knew better but were not implicated? how were they sidelined and silenced? what pressure was brought to bear or incentive was dangled to induct them into omerta?

he interesting case of former CDC head robert redfield emerges.

because robert knew better. and he spoke out. and then he went silent and was heard from no more as the axis of fauci and collins and daszak and baric took over informational control.

but now he is speaking again.

and what he’s saying is alarming on a number of vectors. ....


Kory: The Criminal Censorship of Ivermectin's Efficacy By The High-Impact Medical Journals - Part 1
High-Impact medical journal editorial staff were getting orders to censor ivermectin studies from Big Pharma and "philanthropaths" like Bill Gates.



Back to Non-Pandemic Fare:

War Fare:

Maskirovka is a Russian art form.

... as the true nature of the events of the past two weeks comes into clearer focus, it is now possible to see that the Russians acted deliberately to provide the NATO commanders of this reconstituted Ukrainian force with some low-hanging fruit to blood their untested army, and provide it with a victory that would not only bolster its battlefield confidence, but more importantly serve essential political purposes at a time when western public support was flagging to a very discernible degree.More importantly, from the Russian perspective, providing NATO commanders a temptation they could not resist would draw this fresh army into the open field of battle where it could then be isolated and ultimately destroyed.

.... Relatively little soldier against soldier fighting has occurred. In fact, Ukrainian reports euphorically trumpeted the fact that the Ukrainian advance could not even keep up with the speed of the Russian retreat! The “glorious victory” of this quasi-NATO army has – at least for the time being – launched the western media narrative into an unprecedented spasm of triumphalism. Delusional reports of hundreds of abandoned tanks, thousands of casualties, and tens of thousands of captured Russian soldiers are circulating widely, willingly believed by those whose biases find them pleasing. Western think-tank monkeys and retired-generals-for-hire move from one mainstream news studio to the next spouting fantastical nonsense about next liberating the Donbass, then Crimea, followed by deposing Putin and hauling him before a tribunal at The Hague. ...



This week brought a declaration of victory in the war over the causes of the Ukraine war. A Reuters report about secret Russia-Ukraine negotiations held early this year was hailed as slam-dunk evidence that Russia’s invasion wasn’t, as Putin had claimed, about Ukraine’s intention to join NATO.

... That’s one interpretation. Another interpretation is this: The Reuters piece sheds little light on the question of whether accommodating Russia on the NATO issue could have prevented the war, and the reason people like Smith think otherwise lies in some combination of (1) a misleadingly dramatic lead paragraph; (2) confirmation bias; and (3) the magical power of social media.



............. The single biggest outcome of the past week’s happenings is that the conflict has assumed the nature of a full-fledged war. Zyuganov was not off the mark when he said in his Russian state Duma speech: “The military-political operation… has escalated into a full-fledged war, which has been declared against us by the Americans, NATO members, and a unified Europe. 

“A war is fundamentally different from a special operation. A special operation is something you announce — and something you can choose to put an end to. A war is something you can’t stop even if you want to. You have to fight to the end. War has two possible outcomes: victory or defeat.”



............ The SMO was designed to prevent events taking this turn. For Russia, Mercouris explains, the SMO is an existential matter. Russian authorities cannot allow the SMO to fail. Russia has the resources to make it succeed. The ultimate outcome will be Russian victory. Putin would not say Russia’s response is “restrained,” but notes that in the course of the military operation Russia has encountered terrorist attacks on Russian civilian infrastructure. Russia was at first quite restrained but this will not last forever.

......... What is the ultimate take? Putin is unfazed by Ukraine’s counteroffensive. He is confident in Russia’s General Staff. His main focus is the liberation of Donbass, which is proceeding steadily. It is highly likely that the SMO will be upgraded to ATO. He is clearly indicating that Ukraine’s conduct is setting up a situation that demands this response. This may happen very soon



...

...



Orwellian Fare:


"but the second impossibility is in "plane" sight"!!



CaitOz Fare:



The Profit Motive Is Crippling Humanity: Notes From The Edge Of The Narrative Matrix

❖

It’s hard to grasp just how badly humanity is handicapping itself by excluding all solutions that can’t generate a profit. There’s a whole vast spectrum of potential solutions to the troubles we face as a species, and we’re limiting ourselves to a very small, very shitty fraction of it. By limiting solutions to ones that are profitable, we’re omitting any which involve using less, consuming less, leaving resources in the ground, and leaving nature the fuck alone. We’re also shrinking the incentive to cure problems rather than offer expensive, ongoing treatments.

Or even a project as fundamental to our survival as getting all the pollution out of our oceans. The profit motive offers no solution because there’s no way to make a surplus of money from doing so, and in fact it would be very costly. So the pollution stays in our seas, year after year. People have come up with plenty of solutions for removing pollution from the sea, but they never get rolled out at the necessary scale because there’s no way to make it profitable. And people would come up with far more solutions if they knew those solutions could be implemented.

❖❖❖❖

One of the many consequences of learning about how fucked things are is a growing frustration over wanting things to change while they only get worse. In my experience, which you may of course take or leave, the answer to this dilemma is contained in the Serenity Prayer: “God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference.” A more secular version might read, “Make peace with what you can’t change in this moment, bravely make whatever changes can be made in this moment in your surroundings and in yourself, and learn to distinguish between the two.”

You’re only one human in a chaotic, confusing cacophony of eight billion, and there’s very little you can do to single-handedly effect the massive changes our species needs no matter how clever you are. But that doesn’t mean you can’t do anything. You can do little things to help make this planet a slightly gentler place every day, you can work to spread awareness of what’s true, and you can contribute in your own small way to the expansion of human consciousness (both in yourself and in the world).

Act to whatever reasonable extent you can act, then let go and relax into this beautiful existence. Make peace with what you cannot change in this moment, make what small changes you can, and learn to tell the two apart. The more you learn about our current plight the more necessary it becomes to learn how to do this.



Other Quotes of the Week:

Vlad the Bad Putin: The waning dominance of the United States in the global economy and politics, as well as the stubborn unwillingness or even inability of the Western elites to see, let alone recognise objective facts, acted as a catalyst for these processes.



Rigger-ous Reads (on Culture Wars, Identity Politics, etc.):

just including for the Ontario connection:



Long Reads / Big Thoughts:

********** Shea: The “American experiment” is dying. What will replace it?

The United States is considered the longest standing “democracy” by bourgeois thinkers because it’s never actually been a democracy, and has survived so long by undemocratically suppressing its proletariat. The jingoists who say it’s a republic and not a democracy are at least being honest about the nature of the social order they support. The USA was designed to be a modern version of Rome, an empire that only represented the interests of those who most directly benefit from the violence against the oppressed nations. Those being the rich, and the social base that’s bribed to align with the interests of the rich.

The founding fathers modeled their empire after Rome because Rome was one of history’s most powerful societies. What they didn’t consider was that the way in which the Romans gained this power, that being theft from other civilizations, came at the cost of making their own republic unsustainable. 

America’s increasingly shaky foundations of parasitism

When a society is parasitic, reliant on stealing from other civilizations for its wealth, after its imperial influence inevitably falls apart it resorts to eating itself. ..............................


**** Welsh: Understanding and Surviving the Post-Prosperity Era

............ It’s a trend, it’s been a trend for over 40 years now, but it’s an accelerating trend.

The rich are running out of money to take. In America and the UK they’ve shattered the middle and working classes, In Canada and much of the rest of the world they’re working on it.

........ This trend is accelerated by climate change, and by the insistence on fighting a cold war with China and Russia. Right now the primary target is Russia, yes, but the real target in China. Breaking Russia would weaken China massively, and China is the actual threat to the current hegemonic structure, not Russia, which is not a superpower any more, just a great power (and a fairly weak great power in certain ways.)

..... Meanwhile the fact is that the world’s resources are actually shrinking. When climate change dries up rivers and burns up forests and increases bad weather and droughts; when aquifers go dry and glaciers and snow packs(resevoirs of water) diminish and die; when biodiversity crashes and fish stocks go away, the real resources we need to survive are being reduced, close to permanently, since recovery will take a long time even where it is possible.

With people having less resources, they can withstand less shocks, and with resources concentrated at the very top end, many people can’t take hits. More and more people are one hit away from homelessnes or death, and to top it all off Long Covid disablement is soaring ......

Now, there are a few points here, and readers will have picked out some of them, but let’s state a couple clearly.

First, a lot of people, a hell of a lot of people, aren’t going to make it. If you want to not be one of them; if you want your friends and other people you care about not to be one of them, you’re going to need to do something. Probably the best thing is to organize in groups.  ....

Plan for this era. Climate change is now and it’s just going to get worse and our elites are going to become greater and greater predators, trying to liquidate everything they can find to keep themselves in power. ...



................... It’s not just climate change, either. The media makes you feel alone on many issues. That is its job. It wants you to feel isolated and powerless, and maybe a little bit crazy. It wants to make you believe they speak for the masses, that they are your friend, that they are looking out for your best interests. And if you don’t agree with them, well you are in a very tiny minority and it’s time for you to get your head straight. ......

... The media has its thumb on the scales so that they do not fall from our eyes. Weigh that into every perception you have about whether or not you are in a minority that should be expected to remain silent. Think about that every time you have a thought you feel might separate you from the rest of humanity. It just might be that it is a thought shared by others, a thought they wished someone else might utter so that they would not feel so utterly alone.



Satirical Fare:








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