COVID-19 notes:
Over half of US metro areas have just recorded their worst COVID19 spikes yet. Looks like COVID19 just got started in the US.
COVIDExitStrategy.org: Tracking Our COVID-19
Response: Each state's progress towards a new normal
Studies Report
Rapid Loss of COVID-19 Antibodies
The results, while preliminary, suggest that survivors of SARS-CoV-2
infection may be susceptible to reinfection within weeks or months.
Hundreds of
scientists say coronavirus is airborne, ask WHO to revise recommendations
PNAS: Identifying airborne transmission as the dominant
route for the spread of COVID-19
An open letter
from scientists across the globe calling for use of fabric masks to prevent
COVID-19
Re statistics: Simpson’s
Paradox
This video is about Simpson's paradox, a statistical paradox and
ecological fallacy where seemingly contradictory results are implied by a single
set of data depending on how it's grouped.
Regular Related Fare:
NBER: Fear, Lockdown, and Diversion: Comparing Drivers of Pandemic Economic Decline 2020
The collapse of economic activity in 2020 from
COVID-19 has been immense. An important question is how much of that resulted
from government restrictions on activity versus people voluntarily choosing to
stay home to avoid infection. This paper examines the drivers of the
collapse using cellular phone records data on customer visits to more than 2.25
million individual businesses across 110 different industries. Comparing
consumer behavior within the same commuting zones but across boundaries with
different policy regimes suggests that legal shutdown orders
account for only a modest share of the decline of economic activity (and that having
county-level policy data is significantly more accurate than state-level data).
While overall consumer traffic fell by 60 percentage points, legal restrictions
explain only 7 of that. Individual choices were far more important and seem
tied to fears of infection. Traffic started dropping before the legal orders
were in place; was highly tied to the number of COVID deaths in the county; and
showed a clear shift by consumers away from larger/busier stores toward
smaller/less busy ones in the same industry. States repealing their shutdown
orders saw identically modest recoveries--symmetric going down and coming back.
The shutdown orders did, however, have significantly reallocate consumer
activity away from “nonessential” to “essential” businesses and from
restaurants and bars toward groceries and other food sellers
Employment won't
recover for a decade, CBO says
Pay cuts are
becoming a defining feature of the coronavirus recession
US Consumer Confidence Rebounds In June Led By 'Hope'…
but Chicago PMI
Suffers Biggest Miss In 5 Years As 'V' Hope Fades
Fitch has
downgraded a record number of sovereign ratings due to the coronavirus. It’s
not done yet
Top Economist
Warns No Recovery Until 2022, Stock Market Correction Ahead
Regular Fare:
The Federal Government Always Money-Finances Its Spending: A Restatement
Inter-generational wealth distribution
Book Review Fare:
Richard Murphy just saved me the time (and expense) of reading
Angrynomics: Read it if you
want to get angry.
(not just) for the ESG crowd:
Heat Wave Could
Keep 90s Locked in Plains, Midwest Into Mid-July
South Pole
warming three times faster than rest of Earth: study
Study: U.S.
flood risks dwarf federal estimates
Some new climate
models are projecting extreme warming. Are they correct?
For the past year, some of the most up-to-date computer models from the
world’s top climate modeling groups have been “running hot” – projecting that
global warming may be even more extreme than earlier thought. Data from some of
the model runs has been confounding scientists because it challenges decades of
consistent projections.
“It is concerning, as it increases the risk of more severe climate change
impacts,” explains Dr. Andrew Gettelman, a cloud microphysics scientist from
the National Center for Atmospheric Research, in Boulder, Colorado.
As a result, there’s been a real urgency to answer this important
question in climate science: Are there processes in some new models that need
correcting, or is this enhanced warming a real threat?
“Evidence is emerging from multiple directions that the models which show
the greatest warming in the CMIP6 ensemble are likely too warm,” explains Dr. Gavin
Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
Study: World’s pile of electronic waste grows ever
higher
Microplastic in terrestrial ecosystems
Random Fun Fare:
Man offers to resign after showering during live video meeting
Tweet of the Week:
[Canada Day] Graphic of the Week:
EXTRA (irrelevant or irreverent) FARE:
Quote of the Week:
Eschaton: I don't think even most "pessimists" (including me!) really have a handle on what it means for this to just keep going, perhaps continuing to get worse, for another 3 months, and another 3 months... From the start there was a kind of "well, by the Fall, we will surely have this under control, even with that orange dipshit in charge." And it's July now.
Tweet of the Week:
Not a fan of Scientologists, but did like this ad: Run, Tom, Run.
Other Fare:
Florida manatee deaths up 20% as Covid-19 threatens recovery
(Geopolitical) YouTube Fare:
Abby Martin: Afghanistan War
Exposed: An Imperial Conspiracy
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