Skeptical Investment: 2020-07-13

COVID-19 notes:

It is difficult to explain why public health authorities marginalize the significance of airborne transmission of influenza or coronaviruses, but a possible reason is that it is difficult to directly detect the viruses traveling in the air…. The fact that there are no simple methods for detecting the virus in the air does not mean that the viruses do not travel in the air. … To summarize, based on the trend in the increase of infections, and understanding the basic science of viral infection spread, we strongly believe that the virus is likely to be spreading through the air. If this is the case, it will take at least several months for this to be confirmed by science. This is valuable time lost that could be used to properly control the epidemic by the measures outlined above and prevent more infections and loss of life.

Preparing for Fall's Second Wave -- and Then Some. When COVID-19 and flu season coexist, we need the right tests to tell which is which

Almost 90% of Covid-19 survivors still have symptoms such as fatigue TWO MONTHS after their illness, 'extremely worrying' study reveals

Covid 19 coronavirus: What doctors found in 'almost every organ' of Covid victims

Increase in delirium, rare brain inflammation and stroke linked to COVID-19

As Trump pushes to reopen schools, Arizona school leaders face more uncertainty

The school district's superintendent, Jeff Gregorich, said three teachers went above and beyond in taking precautions against the spread of the virus while teaching in the same room, but all three contracted COVID-19.

They wore masks. They kept space. They used disinfectant. But all three Arizona teachers in a team teaching model in one room came down with COVID-19; one died.

How Many are Going to Die Because Trump Surrendered to Coronavirus?

You May Not Want to Know. But the Answer is So, So Much Worse Than You Probably Think.

America Is Being Way Too Calm About Covid-19.

The Pandemic Experts Are Not Okay. Many American public-health specialists are at risk of burning out as the coronavirus surges back.

How Epidemics End.

~~Regular~~ Related Fare:

Congress is a Month Away from Cutting The Economy’s Fiscal Life Support.

The most important economic problem the United States is facing is the failure to contain Coronavirus and the unethical decisions politicians have been making to reopen without the administrative capacity to limit the virus’s spread. I will not be writing about this problem today. Instead, this dispatch will focus on the second most important economic problem in the United States in July 2020 -- the looming expiration of supplementary unemployment benefits. Just as serious is the waning effect of other elements of the CARES act whose budgets were only good for a few months of support to businesses and sub-federal governments. It really can’t be overstated how catastrophic this is. We are in an economic policy emergency. To understand why, we…

US heads for fiscal cliff as stimulus fades

Continuing claims continue.. the trend is NOT downwards

Consumer credit, Truck sales, Covid

Regular Fare:

The parlous state of poverty eradication: Report of the Special Rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights

Bubble Fare:

One Bank Admits The Markets Have Never Been More Broken, So Here's What Happens Next

Bleak Message of Economic Pain Underlies Tech’s Market Dominance

This Is Nuts…Again. Reducing Risk As Tech Goes 1999

(not just) for the ESG crowd:

Green economic growth is an article of ‘faith’ devoid of scientific evidence

Crack team that advised UN Global Sustainable Development Report settle a longstanding debate with hard empirical data

Cory Doctorow: Full Employment

Remediating climate change will involve unimaginably labor-intensive tasks, like relocating every coastal city in the world kilometers inland, building high-speed rail links to replace aviation links, caring for hundreds of millions of traumatized, displaced people, and treating runaway zoonotic and insect-borne pandemics.

CO2 levels in Earth’s atmosphere will be higher than at any time in the last 3.3 million years by 2025

“Having surpassed Pliocene levels of CO2 by 2025, future levels of CO2 are not likely to have been experienced on Earth at any time for the last 15 millions years, since the Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum, a time of even greater warmth than the Pliocene.”

Cogs in the climate machine.

A 'regime shift' is happening in the Arctic Ocean, scientists say

A heat wave thawed Siberia's tundra. Now, it's on fire.

One key solution to the world’s climate woes? Canada’s natural landscapes

Scientists have found protecting nature can provide more than one-third of the emissions reductions required to meet the world’s 2030 climate targets, thrusting Canada — home to 25 per cent of the planet’s wetlands and boreal forests — into the hot seat

If Life Feels Bleak, It’s Because Our Civilization is Beginning to Collapse

Tweet (thread) of the Week:

Raoul Pal: The Insolvency Phase (The End of Hope)

I am on red alert waiting for final confirmation that the Hope phase of the market has passed (March to June was my target timing for that phase).

While, we are all watching the NDX, things beneath are beginning to smell bad.. (see the full thread)

Quotes of the Week:

Gary Shilling: I think we’ve got a second leg down and that’s very much reminiscent of what happened in the 1930s where people appreciate the depth of this recession and the disruption and how long it’s going to take to recover.

Mike Novogratz: We are in irrational exuberance -- this is a bubble. The economy is grinding, slowing down, we’re lurching in and out of Covid, yet the tech market makes new highs every day. That’s a classic speculative bubble.

Sam Baker: The pandemic is not an abstraction, and it is not something that’s simmering in the background. It is an ongoing emergency ravaging nearly the entire country, with a loss of life equivalent to a Sept. 11 every three days — for four months and counting.

Graphic of the Week: