COVID-19 notes:
COVID Exit Strategy: each state’s progress: 
Covid is Officially Out of Control in America
Uncontrolled is going to become uncontrollable if the current efforts at
fighting the pandemic aren’t sustained for the foreseeable future — and there’s
no guarantee of that.
Hussman: Avoiding a Second Wave
We are doing neither enough to defend our public health, nor enough to
defend our economy. These are not competing goals. They go hand-in-hand. The main prerequisite for
opening up on a large scale is to first shrink the infective pool. The other
prerequisite is to improve the speed and effectiveness of testing, isolation
and contact tracing when new cases emerge.
WHO says COVID-19 pandemic is 'one big wave', not seasonal
‘A huge experiment’: How the world made so much progress on a Covid-19 vaccine so fast
Of course, progress so far remains just that. The vaccines are now facing
their real tests: the monthslong, Phase 3 trials that will demonstrate whether
or not they protect people from the virus. …
Vaccines typically take years, if not decades, to reach people; the
record now is four years for the mumps vaccine. Here’s what has propelled the
Covid-19 endeavor to eclipse prior efforts so far.
So much hope is riding on a breakthrough, but a vaccine is only the
beginning of the end.
… The good news, because it is worth saying, is that experts think there
will be a COVID-19 vaccine. The virus that causes COVID-19 does not seem to be
an outlier like HIV. Scientists have gone from discovery of the virus to more
than 165 candidate vaccines in record time, with 27 vaccines already in human
trials. Human trials consist of at least three phases: Phase 1 for safety,
Phase 2 for efficacy and dosing, and Phase 3 for efficacy in a huge group of
tens of thousands of people. At least six COVID-19 vaccines are in or about to
enter Phase 3 trials, which will take several more months.
… A vaccine, when it is available, will mark only the beginning of a
long, slow ramp down. And how long that ramp down takes will depend on the
efficacy of a vaccine, the success in delivering hundreds of millions of doses,
and the willingness of people to get it at all.
Vaccine Research on Covid-19: An Update
See link for map of COVID19 vaccines in development around the world
AstraZeneca to be exempt from coronavirus vaccine liability claims in most countries
“we as a company simply cannot take the risk if in ... four years the
vaccine is showing side effects”
G&M: Calls to fully reopen schools in September are on a collision course with reality
The Growing Fight Against the School Death Trap
Schools Aren’t Opening. We Have to Pay Parents to Stay Home with Their Kids.
Hundreds of Georgia campers infected with coronavirus at YMCA camp in just days, CDC report finds
According to the report, of the 597 residents who attended the camp, 344 were tested and 260 tested positive for the virus. The camp was
only open for four days before being shut down because of the virus, and
officials followed all recommended safety protocols…. According to the report,
the age group with the most positive coronavirus tests was 6 - 10 years old.: 51% of campers ages 6-10 contracted COVID19.
Reopening US Schools in the Era of COVID-19: Practical Guidance From Other Nations
Young kids could spread COVID-19 as much as older children and adults, study suggests
Findings, published in JAMA Pediatrics, point to the possibility that the
youngest children transmit the virus as much as other age groups. The ability
of younger children to spread COVID-19 may have been under-recognized given the
rapid and sustained closure of schools and daycare during the pandemic.
From ‘brain fog’ to heart damage, COVID-19’s lingering problems alarm scientists
Survivors of Covid-19 show increased rate of psychiatric disorders, study finds (note: not just some; 55%!)
Average Canadians Are Tracking U.S. Yachts Illegally Crossing The Border
Regular Related Fare:
The Fed Is Planning To Send Money Directly To Americans In The Next Crisis
How the eviction
crisis across the U.S. will look
looking at the possibility of up to 40 million evictions in the coming
months as unemployment payments expire and a federal moratorium on evictions
runs out.
Bianco: Fallen Angels
Regular Fare:
The Way People Talk About the Federal Reserve’s “Big” Balance Sheet is All Wrong
Bubble Fare:
Biggest Decline In Nominal Output & Income In Our Lifetime... While Stocks Gained $7 Trillion
(not just) for the ESG crowd:
QBL, ESG and SUSTAINABLE STRATEGY
Fires in Brazil's Amazon rainforest surge in July, worst in recent days
A Front-Row Seat for the Arctic’s Final Summers With Ice
First active leak of sea-bed methane discovered in Antarctica
Dramatic Arctic fires and sea ice melt, show need for urgent climate action
The emergence of heat and humidity too severe for human tolerance
Why Alarm Over Climate Change Is Not Alarmism
Breaking the Plastic Wave: Top Findings for Preventing Plastic Pollution
Tweet of the Week:
Rosenberg: "We are committed to using our full range of tools to support the economy and to help assure that the recovery from this difficult period will be as robust as possible." That was Powell on June 10th, before the data rolled over. Brace for some policy announcement tomorrow.
Quotes of the Week:
Hussman: The way to create a second wave of an epidemic is to relax containment practices while there is still a large pool of active, infective cases.
On Societal Risk There’s a big difference
between risks that simply lead to different outcomes and risks of ruin,
particularly on the systemic level. We should be worrying about multiplicative
risks — such as pandemics. On the other hand, car accidents are not a societal risk
of ruin, as car accidents don’t lead to other car accidents. If you found out
that 1 billion people died in a single year, and didn’t know how, your guess
wouldn’t be car accidents. It would be something fat-tailed like nuclear war or
pandemics. It’s worthwhile figuring out what the systemic risks that we should
be avoiding are — it liberates us and allows us to take lots of risks
elsewhere.
On Personal Risk If you don’t behave conservatively, you’ll increase collective risk dramatically because risk due to pandemics doesn’t scale linearly. You wear a mask more for the systemic effect, not to mitigate personal risk. Prudence on the individual level may seem like ‘overreacting’, and it would be ‘rational’ not to overreact. However, it’s important to note that rationality doesn’t scale; what’s rational for the collective may seem irrational for you personally. People doing the right thing will look irrational.
Pics of the Week: planet of heat - above 50°C in Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia
Interesting choice at #1, of most
loved brands in America
EXTRA (non-mainstream) STUFF:
Political and Geopolitical and Sociopolitical Fare:
‘Care now beyond the means
of all but the rich’
It’s the healthcare system, stupid
‘Populist’ is now an insult
in the US, especially when applied to anti-expertise reactions to the current
pandemic. But the true history of US populism is of a long fight to place
medical experts at the service of the wellbeing of ordinary people.
TikTok - How The White House Helped U.S. Investors To Raid A Chinese Company
But: US administration's smash and grab of TikTok will not be taken lying down: China Daily editorial
Our Foreign Policy Nightmare: Vice President Susan Rice
Fun Fare:
Babylon Bee: Biden Says He Can't Wait To Find Out Who He Picked For VP
Quote of the Week:
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