*** denotes well-worth reading in full at source (even if excerpted extensively here)
Economic and Market Fare:World Bank: Stagflation Risk Rises Amid Sharp Slowdown in Growth
The world economy is expected to experience its sharpest deceleration following an initial recovery from global recession in more than 80 years
“US supply is constrained above all by overfull employment […] Meanwhile, nominal demand has been expanding at a torrid pace. [….] The combination of fiscal and monetary policies implemented in 2020 and 2021 ignited an inflationary fire. The belief that these flames will go out with a modest move in interest rates and no rise in unemployment is far too optimistic. Suppose, then, that this grim perspective is correct. Then inflation will fall, but maybe only to 4 per cent or so. Higher inflation would become a new normal. The Fed would then need to act again or have to abandon its target, destabilising expectations and losing credibility. This would be a stagflation cycle — a result of the interaction of shocks with mistakes made by fiscal and monetary policymakers.”
“[….] we’re likely to have a need for nominal interest rates, basic Fed interest rates, to rise to the 4 percent to 5 percent range over the next couple of years. If they don’t do that, I think we’ll get higher inflation. And then over time, it will be necessary for them to get to still higher levels and cause even greater dislocations” (Klein 2022).
“Also similar to the 1970s, the US Federal Reserve [….] is already dealing with self-inflicted damage to its inflation-fighting credibility. With that comes the likelihood of de-anchored inflationary expectations, the absence of good monetary policy options, and a stark choice for the Fed between enabling above-target inflation well into 2023 or pushing the economy into recession.”
- Core PCE inflation dropped from 10.2% in February 1975 to 6.0% in May 1976 (a 4.2% drop).
- Core PCE was 9.8% in January 1981, and dropped to 7.0% in March 1982 (and kept falling).
QsOTW:
Charts:
1:
...Excessive levels of private sector debt are a much better predictor of financial crisis than high government debt, as the private sector can't print money and needs real cash flows to service its debt.
— Alf (@MacroAlf) June 6, 2022
And when it can't, the de-leveraging process is vicious.
That orange line... pic.twitter.com/dS1ei5FWa1
...The Fed is trying to cool the economy without freezing it. Is a recession inevitable? "All the indicators are pointing in the same direction and it's down" says @MacroAlf https://t.co/bjWn5xyfLZ w/ @OrenKlachkin @Knightleyeco @JeffWeniger @GregDaco @DianeSwonk pic.twitter.com/k1AGYJJ4oY
— Brian Scheid (@BrianJScheid) June 6, 2022
The amount of tightening next week 2x hikes + 1x QT will be more than what broke global markets in 2016 AND 2018. This time breadth is pre-collapsed.
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) June 7, 2022
Should be interesting. pic.twitter.com/ylKN84DR6X
Bubble Fare:
Bounding Into The Abyss
(not just) for the ESG crowd:
Other Fare:
Arnott and Mulligan: Non-Covid Excess Deaths, 2020-21: Collateral Damage of Policy Choices?
From April 2020 through at least the end of 2021, Americans died from non-Covid causes at an average annual rate 97,000 in excess of previous trends. Hypertension and heart disease deaths combined were elevated 32,000. Diabetes or obesity, drug-induced causes, and alcohol-induced causes were each elevated 12,000 to 15,000 above previous (upward) trends. Drug deaths especially followed an alarming trend, only to significantly exceed it during the pandemic to reach 108,000 for calendar year 2021. Homicide and motor-vehicle fatalities combined were elevated almost 10,000. Various other causes combined to add 18,000. While Covid deaths overwhelmingly afflict senior citizens, absolute numbers of non-Covid excess deaths are similar for each of the 18-44, 45-64, and over-65 age groups, with essentially no aggregate excess deaths of children. Mortality from all causes during the pandemic was elevated 26 percent for working-age adults (18-64), as compared to 18 percent for the elderly. Other data on drug addictions, non-fatal shootings, weight gain, and cancer screenings point to a historic, yet largely unacknowledged, health emergency.
Contrarian Perspectives
Extra [i.e. Controversial] Fare:
*** denotes well-worth reading in full at source (even if excerpted extensively here)
Regular Fare:
.. I’ll get to why I think that is, but first, let’s acknowledge three structural difficulties Democrats face that Republicans don’t. These are rarely discussed or acknowledged, especially the first two. But they are fundamental to why Democrats have a harder time articulating a clear message.
Biden and the Democrats just approved the largest ever spike in Medicare premiums, they let the child tax credits expire, they did not fight to pass a living wage, and have completely abandoned Medicare for All. This party is using its majority to stab its own voters in the back.
— Ryan Knight ☭ (@ProudSocialist) June 7, 2022
Unsustainability / Climate Fare:
Join us as we mark the 50th anniversary of @ClubOfRome's Limits to Growth report and kickstart the important discussion on past lessons, climate action & our common future. Watch the keynote speeches here, starting at 10:00 CEST: https://t.co/DYj2faT5Db #BeyondTheLimits pic.twitter.com/xHaNtVJIC2
— THE NEW INSTITUTE (@TheNewInstitute) June 7, 2022
Related Vid:
Read everything by eugyppius; el gato malo; Mathew Crawford; Steve Kirsch; Jessica Rose!
Paul Alexander, Berenson, Chudov, Lyons-Weiler, Toby Rogers are also go-to mainstays; a list to which I have added Andreas Oehler, Joey Smalley (aka Metatron) and, Julius Ruechel; Denninger worth staying on top of too for his insights, and especially his colorful language; and Norman Fenton; Marc Girardot; plus Walter Chesnut (on twitter); new additions: Sheldon Yakiwchuk and Aaron Kheriarty; I will of course continue to post links to key Peter McCullough material, and Geert Vanden Bossche, and Robert Malone, and Martin Kulldorff, and Jay Bhattacharya, and Sucharit Bhakdi, and Pierre Kory, and Harvey Risch, and Michael Yeadon, and John Ioannidis, and Paul Marik, and Tess Lawrie, and Zelenko, and Dolores Cahill, and [local prof] Byram Bridle, and Ryan Cole, and…
Best 2 minutes of reality you will see today, or any day really...
— Ivor Cummins (@FatEmperor) June 8, 2022
(I edited to get the best bits) pic.twitter.com/EGY2IA6EHG
CO-VIDs of the Week:
Keeping Sane: Bret Speaks with Neil Oliver
Anecdotal Fare:
Rafaeli: Covid-19: Dr Cadegiani's patient number 3711
........... Cadegiani, since the beginning of the pandemic, has done several studies with various drugs to fight the disease. He researched hydroxychloroquine, nitazonixanide, ivermectin, and proxalutamide. All, according to the Brazilian media, "without proven effectiveness", despite the studies concluding positively.
"...Ross Wightman of British Columbia is among the first victims of 💉 injury to receive government compensation for his suffering. Soon after receiving the shot, Wightman came down with Guillain-Barré Syndrome..."https://t.co/MRIGts77XF
— Dave Nestor (@DaveNestor22) June 7, 2022
COVID Conspiracy Fare:
Nass: Fauci's COVID origins coverup spook has resurfaced to misdirect us about the origin of money pox
Back to Non-Pandemic Fare:
This is why they all wanted him gone pic.twitter.com/ajUPUvFzNY
— Jack Posobiec 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) June 8, 2022
Orwellian Fare:
A Russian is on an airliner heading to the US, and the American in the seat next to him asks, “So what brings you to the US?” The Russian replies, “I’m studying the American approach to propaganda.” The American says, “What propaganda?” The Russian says, “That’s what I mean.”
CaitOz Fare:
You’re Only As Free As You Allow Your World To Be
..... Without egoing, it would just be human organisms peacefully existing on the planet they were born on until they died of natural causes. There’d be no reason not to collaborate with each other and with our ecosystem toward the common good and make sure everyone gets what they need, because there’d be no “me” whose interests need to be secured before those of “others”, no “others” whose wellbeing could be seen as taking anything from “me”. ...
Other Quotes of the Week:
Long Reads / Big Thoughts:
e.
NOT Satirical Fare:
Family Of Latest Clinton-Linked Suicide Blocks Release Of Shotgun Death Details
Pics of the Week:
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