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Sunday, July 10, 2022

2022-07-10

*** denotes well-worth reading in full at source (even if excerpted extensively here)

Economic and Market Fare:


The first 6 months of 2022 were dreadful for financial markets.

In fact, you could argue we just lived through one of the worst 6 month periods EVER for stocks and bonds.

This isn’t hyperbole. The data backs it up.

... The 6 month returns for a 60/40 portfolio were in the bottom 2% of rolling returns going back to 1926.

This means 98% of the time, returns have been better than what we just lived through.

It was also just the 4th time over the past 100 years or so that stocks and bonds were down two quarters in a row at the same time. ...


First signs of a slowdown in the US labour market


Peak inflation? Why some prices are tumbling fast



There has been a significant improvement in the inflation fundamentals in recent weeks. Even though I expect reported inflation to remain uncomfortably high through at least the end of this year, it's becoming clear, on the margin, that the inflation dynamics are improving for the better.

It all began earlier this year when the M2 numbers began to show a significant slowdown, a development I have highlighted at length in previous posts. It's now pretty clear that the surge in M2 was a one-off phenomenon, fueled primarily by a monetization of multi-trillion-dollar-deficits which began in 2020 and continued through at least the third quarter of last year. Since then the federal deficit has plunged and M2 growth has gone flat. The thing that was driving inflation on the margin was money printing designed to enhance the "stimulus" of government handouts, and that has ground to a halt. That's great news, but the lags between money and inflation are "long and variable," according to Milton Friedman. ...





well, if Brian Wesbury says so, then... maybe we should ask David Malpass as well though, just to be sure:
We're Not Already In a Recession

...
...



And if so: when, and how bad?

.... Amongst the many forward-looking economic indicators I focus on, you will know by now that one of my preferred metrics is my G5 Credit Impulse series: it measures the pace of change of credit creation in the 5 largest economies worldwide and it serves as a very reliable leading indicator (6-15 months lead time) for economic growth and the performance of several asset classes.

Why?

Because as our structural ability to deliver economic growth is impaired by weak demographics and stagnant productivity, we learnt that printing money out of thin air works as a (temporary) substitute: the more money we inject in the private sector, the more likely we’ll get a cyclical boost to economic growth.
Slow down that process, and growth will cyclically slow down too.

Notice two things: ...

....
..............In other words: the chances of an imminent and non-negligible recession keep increasing month after month.


DB: When We Get Confirmation Of A Proper Recession, Watch Out Below

... As Reid explains, basically in good times you can buy a huge amount of bonds at new issue but a few weeks or months later you can only really deal in fractions of that size in the secondary market at a price close to the market. This doesn’t matter in the good times when inflows are fairly consistently positive and the bulk of long only investors are comfortable buying and holding.

However in bad times even long only investors want to protect their short-term performance and all head to the same very narrow door for a part of their portfolio, especially if there are outflows. And, as today's chart shows, dealer inventories have never recovered from the post GFC regulatory environment and the ability or desire to warehouse risk is minimal, especially in a crisis.

.... So will this time be any different? Probably not. When we get confirmation of a proper recession that hits earnings and unemployment, illiquid products (like credit) will likely overshoot on the downside for the reasons discussed above. While painful to most, this will provide great opportunities for those nimble enough to exploit it but in illiquid markets that will be tough, according to Reid, who then takes a quick walk down memory lane: ...



Charts: 


5:


QOTW:

Avery Shenfeld: While we cling to hopes for a small gain, if the Atlanta Fed’s nowcast is right in seeing a decline in US GDP in Q2, then we’ve just come through what we’d call a “noncession,” a two-quarter output drop that was not a recession. Rumours to the contrary, economists don’t define two consecutive negative quarters as a recession. One needs to see a material decline in a broader range of activity measures, and the key missing ingredient thus far has been in the labour market. There can be job-free recoveries for a while, but the very definition of a recession essentially rules out having one without job losses, let alone a recession with a hiring boom.

MW: why oh why do economists continue to think that current labour market data is accurate? is L mkt data a lagging indicator? yes. not only that, but is it subject to revisions? yes. not only that, but do those revisions have a history of being quite significant at turning points in the business cycle? oh, right, yes


and... also.. even if one assumed the current data was accurate, we've got such a "hiring boom" that total employment still has not yet reached the level it was at pre-pandemic:


... much less gotten to the level that it should have had job growth maintained its pre-pandemic trend


Bubble Fare:

***** Hussman: Are We There Yet?

Lao Tzu wrote, “A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.” In recent months, the financial markets have taken the first step toward normalization. Unfortunately, having taken one step, the most prominent question we hear is “Are we there yet?!?”

If “there” means valuations anywhere near levels that are consistent with historically run-of-the-mill long-term returns; if “there” means a monetary policy stance anywhere near something that would promote productive capital allocation without speculative distortion; if “there” means financial market capitalizations that can actually be served by the cash flows generated by the economy, providing adequate long-term returns without relying on endless expansion in valuation multiples; then, no. We are not “there.”

The problem is that after a decade of deranged monetary policies that ultimately amplified speculation beyond 1929 and 2000 extremes, we are so far from “normal’ that arriving anywhere near that neighborhood will be a journey. The recent market decline has simply retraced the frothiest portion of the recent bubble, bringing the most reliable market valuation measures back toward their 1929 and 2000 extremes. .........


The months-long fall in crypto markets has, for the most part, been a kind of contained demolition. But the fallout is starting to spread.

The collapse is now affecting the corporate and financial infrastructure of the digital-currencies realm. The question of how much trouble — and how much contagion — is still ahead came into stark relief when Voyager Digital, a New Jersey–based lender central to the crypto market, announced that it had filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in Manhattan federal court on Wednesday. What made Voyager’s implosion so shocking was that, in an industry rife with apparent fraud and shady characters, here was a company that had striven for the kind of steadiness and transparency one might expect of a traditional finance company. It went public on the Toronto Stock Exchange in 2019. ....




Real estate agents got $3.9 billion in Covid relief PPP loans. The housing market boomed, but few repaid the loans.





(not just) for the ESG crowd:

From South Asia to the US, from Africa to Europe, intense heat is pushing the human body beyond the bounds of physiological tolerance.


The area of depleted ozone is seven times larger than the hole over Antarctica and could affect 50 per cent of the global population


CDC study finds glyphosate, controversial ingredient found in weedkillers including popular Roundup brand, present in samples



Fred Hache ... joins me to explain how the markets have financialised and commodified the climate crisis: why carbon credit schemes are nonsense, the worrying advent of biodiversity offsetting, and the tokenisation of environmental protection. He explains that environmental regulations have a long history of being effective, and questions why protection of the natural world is being handed over to markets.



Other Fare:








Contrarian Perspectives

Extra [i.e. Controversial] Fare:

*** denotes well-worth reading in full at source (even if excerpted extensively here)


Regular Fare:

W.J. Astore: The Power Game

A book that shook my world was journalist Hedrick Smith’s “The Power Game,” published 35 years ago in 1987. It was about “How Washington really works,” and what I remember about it is how it made me feel, as in discouraged and outraged. I learned about the power of lobbyists, the power of money, and what money gains you, which is access. More-or-less legal forms of corruption in 1987 are now most definitely legal, with the Supreme Court decreeing that corporations are citizens and that money is speech. It’s amazing how the law can be twisted to serve the interests of the powerful. I for one do not believe that Raytheon and I are both equal citizens and that we both have equivalent access to elected representatives through our “speech,” i.e. our money. But the Supreme Court professes to believe this so there you have it.

When you look at who runs America, it’s a fairly short list. Wall Street, Big Pharma, the fossil fuel companies, Big Tech and Silicon Valley, the military-industrial complex (National Security State), the major banks and insurance companies: any “citizen” with access to billions of dollars who can then buy or rent politicians with millions of dollars. It’s a great deal for them, “investing” in politicians, making them dance to their tune, but it’s a lousy deal for the rest of us. ...

..... Finally, a rather obvious point, but it bears repeating. Justices like Thomas, Roberts, Kavanaugh, Gorsuch, and Barrett weren’t just selected because they were reliable votes against abortion. They were really vetted and selected because they will always rule with the powerful against the powerless. They are, in a word, pro-corporate.

And if the Supreme Court is pro-corporate, if Congress is pro-corporate, and if the president is a figurehead known for his pro-corporate policies as a Senator from Delaware, what kind of America are we truly looking at?



The last real Democratic President was Jimmy Carter. The last U.S. election offering a real alternative vision was George McGovern versus Richard Nixon in 1972.

Since then, Democratic Presidents like Clinton, Obama, and Biden have been DINOs, or Democrats in name only. In a rare moment of honesty, Obama admitted his administration had echoed the policies of “moderate” Republicans. Friendly to Wall Street, banking interests, corporations, the military-industrial complex, and the usual assortment of oligarchs. Obama’s health care plan was a corporate-friendly sellout that echoed the plan put together by Republicans like Mitt Romney. The DINOs fully support forever war and huge military budgets; Obama was quite happy to admit America had “tortured some folks” and that he’d gotten very good at ordering people to be killed, mainly via assassination by drone. It’s a far cry from Jimmy Carter trying to put human rights at the center of his foreign policy in the late 1970s.

Democrats began to move rightwards after McGovern’s resounding defeat in 1972. They haven’t stopped this rightward drift; indeed, it’s accelerated. The Republicans responded by embracing men like Trump as they found plenty of room even further to the right of the DINOs. America, Gore Vidal once said, basically has one property party with two right wings, and that’s only become truer and more obvious over the last fifty years. 

What is to be done? We need viable alternatives, but of course the game is rigged, as Matthew Hoh, principled candidate for the Senate in North Carolina, discovered as Democrats conspired to keep him off the ballot, even though his efforts with the Green Party were more than sufficient to earn him a place on that ballot. Both parties, Democrat and Republican, will do anything to keep their duopoly while also endlessly punching each other. Neither party serves the interests of the people. ...





Unsustainability Fare:

The Limits to Growth argued that rampant pollution and resource extraction were pushing Earth to the brink. How does it hold up 50 years later?



It is not commonly understood how large the reductions would have to be to enable a society that is globally sustainable and just. The World Wildlife Foundation’s Footprint measure (2018) estimates the average Australian per capita use of productive land at 6–8 ha. Thus, if the 9–10 billion people expected to be on earth by 2050 were to live as Australians do now, up to 80 billion ha of productive land would be needed. But there are only about 12 billion ha of productive land on the planet. If one third of it is set aside for nature then each Australian would be living in a way that would require about 10 times as much productive land as all people could ever have. Some other measures taking into account factors such as materials consumption (Wiedmann et al., 2015) indicate higher multiples.

To this must be added the implications of growth. If the Australian GDP rises by 3% pa and by 2050 all 9–10 billion people rise to the “living standards” Australians would then have, each year the global economy would be producing and consuming about 18 times as much as it does now. Yet the present amounts are unsustainable; the WWF estimates that the global footprint is now 70% higher than the planet could sustain. This indicates that the 2050 global resource and ecological impact would be in the region of 30 times a sustainable level. (For a detailed derivation of these multiples see Trainer 2021a.)

The common assumption that technical advance can solve the resource and ecological problems without impacting on affluent living standards and economic growth has now been contradicted by a large amount of evidence. Many studies show that despite constant effort to improve productivity and efficiency the growth of GDP continues to be accompanied by growth in resource use. See for instance recent extensive refutations of the “decoupling” thesis by Hickel and Kallis, (2019), Parrique et al., (2019), and Haberl et al. (2021) reporting on several hundred papers. This evidence would seem to decisively contradict the faith of the “tech-fix”, “Green Growth” and Ecomodernist believers.

The above multiples have profound implications for thinking about sustainability and desirable social forms. The Simpler Way perspective is that solutions to the global predicament cannot be found on the supply side but must be sought in terms of lifestyles and systems involving far less demand. Needs must be met via far less production and consumption in radically different systems, as distinct from in terms of improved efficiency and technical advance. In other words, the focal issue should be what alternatives to conventional goals and means must be adopted to achieve sustainability with a high quality of life? It is now necessary to indicate the kind of lifestyles and systems that could enable this.



A given amount of methane heats up Earth’s atmosphere much more than the same amount of its more famous fellow greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide—like, 90 times more in the course of a decade. So it’s with some alarm that scientists in recent years have noted not just growth in the amount of methane in the atmosphere but accelerating growth.

... All told, the growth of methane seems to be about four times as sensitive to warming as scientists had thought. In other words, the vicious cycle—methane produces heating that produces methane—is very, very vicious.




...


COVID Fare:

I've continued to come across too much excellent COVID-related content (with contrarian evidence-based points-of-view!!) to link to it all
Read everything by eugyppius; el gato malo; Mathew Crawford; Steve Kirsch; Jessica Rose!
Paul Alexander, Berenson, Chudov, Lyons-Weiler, Toby Rogers are also go-to mainstays; a list to which I have added Andreas Oehler, Joey Smalley (aka Metatron) and, Julius Ruechel; Denninger worth staying on top of too for his insights, and especially his colorful language; and Norman Fenton; Marc Girardot; plus Walter Chesnut (on twitter); new additions: Sheldon Yakiwchuk and Aaron Kheriarty; I will of course continue to post links to key Peter McCullough material, and Geert Vanden Bossche, and Robert Malone, and Martin Kulldorff, and Jay Bhattacharya, and Sucharit Bhakdi, and Pierre Kory, and Harvey Risch, and Michael Yeadon, and John Ioannidis, and Paul Marik, and Tess Lawrie, and Zelenko, and Dolores Cahill, and [local prof] Byram Bridle, and Ryan Cole, and…
but going forward, my linking to material by those mainstays mentioned above will be reduced to key excerpts and/or essential posts

For the past two weeks I have been working on a document summarizing my conclusions on the immuno-epidemiological consequences of the mass vaccination experiment.

The result of this is even more frightening than I had predicted. I’ve, therefore, appended a summary of my manuscript by way of ‘tsunami warning’.  

In a nutshell, here is what I am 100% certain of:

·    The current SC-2 pandemic is still expanding as it is a pandemic of ‘more infectious’ variants and is thus enhancing the susceptibility of vaccinees to infection (infection-enhancing antibodies) while diminishing the susceptibility of the unvaccinated (infection-mediated training of innate cell-mediated immunity).

·     In the pre-Omicron era, we saw more infectious variants becoming dominant; however, thanks to the neutralizing antibodies, vaccinees were still protected against disease. However, with the advent of Omicron and its growing resistance to neutralizing antibodies, vaccinees became more susceptible to infection; what we are now seeing is more virulent variants becoming dominant  (Omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5[1]). however, thanks to the virulence-neutralizing antibodies (which are the same as those enhancing infection at the upper respiratory tract!), vaccinees were still protected against severe disease (e.g., in case of BA.1 and BA.2). I’ve no doubt, however, that with the growing resistance of BA.4 and BA.5 to the virulence-neutralizing Abs, vaccinees will now rapidly become more susceptible to virulence.  

·     Due to repetitive activation of the immune system in C-19 vaccinees, several infectious diseases can now be spread asymptomatically by vaccinees. Due to widespread asymptomatic transmission in highly vaccinated countries and the subsequent rise in infectious pressure, infection-mediated immunity in certain subsets of the population no longer suffices to prevent productive infection. This is now basically igniting the global spread of a number of acute, self-limiting microbial infections (e.g., ‘seasonal’ Flu, RSV but also vaccine-preventable viral and bacterial infections in countries that interrupted their childhood vax program due to Covid crisis) and also of some acute, self-limiting viral diseases (e.g., monkeypox, pandemic [avian H5N1] flu). In addition, depletion of cytotoxic CD8 T cells due to repetitive cycles of re-infection has also led to an increased recurrence/reactivation rate of chronic infections (e.g., herpetic diseases + CMV, EBV, CMV, HIV, tuberculosis..) and relapse or metastasis of certain cancers in vaccinees.

·     In the summary appended, I am sharing my informed predictions on the health impact these pandemics will entail in different subgroups of a highly vaccinated population. While these new pandemics are developing, the super C-19 pandemic I’ve been warning about is coming our way soon. In highly vaccinated countries, it will definitely overhaul the pandemics mentioned above. This is because massive replacement of ‘natural infection-acquired’ immunity to SC-2 by ‘imperfect’ vaccine-induced immunity is now driving the evolution of the C-19 pandemic in highly vaccinated countries. This will not be the case in poorly vaccinated countries where natural immunity has been largely preserved and the population is often much younger (e.g., African countries).

Last, I’d like to repeat my advice:

·      If you’re C-19 vaccinated: Make sure you’ve access to antivirals and antibiotics and that you’ve established a contact with an MD you can trust. ..........


***** Vanden Bossche: A Fairy Tale of Pandemics

There is no need to believe in conspiracy theories to explain the current explosion of infectious pandemics.

Here is the explanation (I hope that my audience can assist laymen to understand what follows through the creation of charts and/or rephrasing of statements):
  • Use of vaccines in the absence of the circulating target pathogen will not allow an individual or even an entire population to exert suboptimal immune pressure on the pathogen’s life cycle
  • However, as soon as the pathogen is circulating in a population, it becomes possible to put suboptimal immune pressure on its life cycle
  • If suboptimal immune pressure is only exerted by a small subset of the population, it doesn’t pose a major problem (however, this may already suffice for ‘seasonal’ vaccines, for example, to become less and less useful; example: seasonal Flu vaccines)  
  • However, if suboptimal immune pressure is exerted by large parts of the population while the pathogen/ virus is circulating, then it becomes worrisome
  • Suboptimal population-level immune pressure becomes even more worrisome when thecirculating virus is a viral variant (i.e., different from the viral lineage that originally primed the population). This will drive natural selection of more infectious immune escape variants that will eventually adapt to the population because they’ve gained a competitive replication advantage. When that happens, the variant becomes dominant. Of course, increased viral infection rates will result in increased progeny of mutants; this will expedite the selection of appropriate variant(s) to overcome the suboptimal immune pressure exerted on their life cycle. When ‘more infectious’ variants begin to dominate, the likelihood for previously asymptomatically infected people to become re-exposed will augment. As a result of previous asymptomatic infection some of them may have developed short-lived titers of antigen(Ag)-specific, non-neutralizing antibodies (Abs). Non-neutralizing Abs can, however, enhance viral infectiousness if they bind in sufficient quantities to the virus (so-called Ab-dependent enhancement of infection; ADEI). However, the chance for a re-infection to occur shortly after primary infection is normally low unless the virus is very infectious or highly concentrated, or the cell-based innate immune system (CBIIS) is weakened (worst case scenario exists in densely populated areas with poor hygiene conditions and inadequate nutrition). In case ADEI occurs, the infection rate in the population will increase. This makes it now more likely for the virus to break through the cellular innate immune defense and trigger the adaptive immune system. Due to ‘antigenic sin’, adaptive immune triggering will, however, first recall the ‘old’ Ag-specific Abs (i.e., those that were acquired as a result of the original immune priming). Although these antibodies will be recalled rapidly and in large quantities (because of immunologic memory!), they will not do well at recognizing the dominantly circulating ‘more infectious’ variant. Consequently, the neutralizing capacity of these Abs will diminish. This increasingly enables non-neutralizing Abs to bind to the virus, and thereby promotes an even more pronounced ADEI effect. The more infectious the dominant variant becomes, the more strongly and frequently the virus will break through the host’s innate immune defense. Simultaneously, titers of antigen(Ag)-specific Abs will continue to rise and their neutralizing capacity continue to diminish. This will result in an increased likelihood for ADEI to occur and a higher susceptibility of the population to re-infection. 
  •  ....
  •  ....


perhaps we see why so many countries are losing enthusiasm for this project

... and that makes this graph (which i took the liberty of reproducing and adding a “vaccines commence” line to for legibility) deeply damaging to the case for jabbing the kiddos.


this timing is more than a little provocative. and this is the group where one would expect to see the strongest, clearest signal as there are so few other causes of death. this is the radio telescope far from noise and RF pollution. it will catch more input.

.... yet again, we cannot prove causality from this correlation, but it is jarringly precise in temporal alignment and caused a major and durable change in trend. those are not things one should simply dismiss.

coinciditis does indeed seem to be going around.

....“data so compelling we don’t need to look for it” is not a real thing.
neither is “benefit so clear we need to mandate it.”
if these products are so useful, lay out all the data. perform the safety assessments.
what you you have to fear?
and you might gain some trust back.
but fail to do so, and the omission becomes telling.
that is not how someone with a good case to be made behaves.
data suppression is not a sound basis for advice, much less mandate.
good products with good cost/benefit sell themselves.
they need not be forced.


With additional thoughts on why mass containment probably made everything worse, by playing to the most central strategy of the virus


It's not the virus they told you it was

........ In early-to-mid-2020, I got together with a number of other independent researchers digging into COVID-19, some of whom are actual biologists and virologists, and by the end of 2020, we’d figured out exactly how COVID-19 kills people.

First of all, in order for someone to be vulnerable to COVID-19, they have to be obese, diabetic, old, hypertensive, and/or African-American. What do all of these groups have in common? They all have endothelial dysfunction. That’s where someone has chronically low nitric oxide levels, redox equilibrium issues, and excess chronic oxidative stress and chronic inflammation in their vascular endothelium, which eventually leads to atherosclerosis, and so on. In obesity, diabetes, and hypertension, endothelial dysfunction is a common finding. .........


el gato malo: having had covid not associated with higher rates of myo/pericarditis

it has been a “talking point of faith” for many american pundits and pharma peddlers that:

“sure, vaccines may cause increased risk of myo and pericarditis, but it’s lower than the increased risk of same from having gotten covid.”

this has always looked implausible for 2 simple reasons:
  1. the society scale spike in these outcomes was not present in 2020 when covid was rampant and vaccines non-extant.
  2. vaccines are associated with higher risk of covid infection anyhow and so, if covid causes heart problems, then getting vaxxed would appear the wrong way to go.
but, like so many other claims like “vaccines will stop spread” and “your mask protects me,” as the data really comes in, this tale of covid induced heart inflammation has failed to validate. ....


covid showed no meaningful effect thru 2020. they they started vaxxing young people and acute coinciditis broke out all over.

and they have been trying to blame the virus and 300 other made up factors ever since.

.... this appears to be one big shell game to divert attention and ascribe this spike in heart damage and death to anything but the experimental pharma rushed into billions of people without adequate safety testing.

these increases in incidence are not covid nor sunspots nor sudden adult death syndrome that has always been with us and yet that we somehow never quite noticed before.

this is gaslighting and “it’s worse if you get covid” was a key plank in that edifice.

it seemed so plausible.

but it’s not in the data and apparently never was. ...



Please head to the Province of Ontario’s (my homeland :)) website where you will be able to see and even download COVID-19 Vaccine Data. It’s quite illuminating. The file that I chose to download since the ‘case’ data is crap in my opinion (and always will be), was the second one down entitled “Hospitalizations by vaccination status” which can be found here. I thought that it was pretty strange that they wrote the following. Why won’t they be publishing hospitalization by injection status data as of June 23, 2022? Not looking good for your products, maybe?


Increasingly shocking evidence of the impacts of what Ed Dowd suggests we should start calling a "mass democide" (death by government) continues to emerge.

In Part I of my “Reports from the Front Lines of the Vaccine Catastrophe,” I relayed first hand information from senior nurses who work in emergency rooms, hospital wards and intensive care units regarding unprecedented amounts of young people presenting with cancers, strokes, and heart attacks. For a brilliant, succinct layperson’s explanation as to the pathophysiology of how and why these medical events are occurring, please read this substack post by my friend and colleague Dr. Kevin Stillwagon (he is also an airline pilot).

My main source for the more detailed reports is a senior ER/ICU nurse who has been carefully observing and documenting the presentations and problems occurring in the care of vaccinated patients presenting to a major academic medical center. She has continued to discreetly and prudently extract information from a huge network of colleagues she has built over her career. She responded to my last post, adding new, even more alarming information. Here goes: ...........



An Italian response to the COVIDcrisis

Based in Italy, forged in response to the COVIDcrisis, the IppocrateOrg Movement has assembled a volunteer international network of physicians, researchers, health and social workers to help patients who had nowhere else to turn.  The State-endorsed medical establishment offered patients nothing other than nihilist inpatient hospital treatment protocols with unacceptably high mortality rates.  As the epidemic surge kicked in (particularly in Northern Italy), the founding organizers of IppocrateOrg recognized that all of the international political, financial, and corporate media structures were becoming remarkably aligned in messaging about both the risks of the virus and the treatment options. The initially chaotic and conflicting landscape of local, national, and international responses often resulted in governments dissembling and failing to provide clear, sensible answers and public health response guidance. Journalists, philosophers, political commentators, party members and representatives of international organizations began stressing out that after this pandemic “nothing will ever be like before”.  Although a true and indisputable statement, it is vague, naïve and provides no answer to the question “what will the change look like?”.  In response to this barrage of dysfunctional confusion and lack of leadership, IppocrateOrg physicians and scientists developed and publicized new treatment protocols for treating patients at different stages of disease, and affiliated physicians and other medical providers began deploying early treatment, saving lives, and keeping patients from ever needing to go to the hospitals. ...

... In the face of the undeniable fact that early interventions save lives and almost completely eliminate mortality associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection, it is not surprising that questions would arise, particularly when we see useful drugs having been left aside in favor of other patented medications which have not been demonstrated to be effective. These questions lead IppocrateOrg leaders to think hard about what is really going on, and to seek a path to change what the government is doing within medicine; to change the relationship between clinical and research medicine, and to gain autonomy from international, national and regional Departments of Health which act as if captured by the medical-pharmaceutical industrial complex. Below is their story ...




... Our reports showed clearly that many of the claims by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) about vaccine efficacy and safety are based on flawed data, which includes not just misclassifying some of those who die shortly after vaccinated as 'unvaccinated', but also underestimating the true proportion of unvaccinated.

The 8% unvaccinated claim by the BBC is clearly wrong and it clearly has a major impact in exaggerating any claims about vaccine safety and efficacy.


Unvaccinated with Professor Hannah Fry makes false claims about the number of unvaccinated.

.............. But the question remains, why is this 8% figure being bandied around? Is it an innocent mistake (which keeps happening over and over again) or is this misinformation from the nudge unit to pressure people into getting vaccinated? If you think you are part of a fringe minority you are more likely to follow the crowd and get vaccinated, even if you don’t really want to. But if you realise a third of the country feels the same way as you, you won’t be so quick to change your mind.

Another, more sinister reason, is that using a small unvaccinated population makes a huge difference to vaccine efficacy statistics. Professor Fenton uses the following example to explain.
If the true proportion of unvaccinated is 10% that means 200 out of 100,000 unvaccinated died (that's a mortality rate of 1 in 500), while 800 out of 900,000 vaccinated died (that's a mortality rate of 1 in 1,125). So the mortality rate in the unvaccinated is much higher than that of the vaccinated.

If the true proportion of unvaccinated is 30%, that means 200 out of 300,000 unvaccinated died (that's a mortality rate of 1 in 1,150), while 800 out of 700,000 vaccinated died (that's a mortality rate of 1 in 875). So the mortality rate in the unvaccinated is much lower than that of the vaccinated.
So using an incorrect figure for the unvaccinated population makes mortality rates look higher for the unvaccinated, leading to the false conclusion that the vaccine has prevented deaths.





So why are we doing it?

Rav Arora, a journalist who used to write for the New York Post before his vaccine reporting got him blackballed, has a long Substack piece assembling major studies on myocarditis risk that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines pose for young people, and especially young men, that I recommend reading and sharing. All of its claims are rooted in high-quality studies and none of it is open to reasonable dispute. We spend a lot of time thinking about what effects the vaccines might be having, but this is a piece about what effects everyone agrees the vaccines are having – and it’s enough to do enormous violence to the doctrine of universal mRNA vaccination all by itself. ...

... Since these subpar products no longer have any meaningful impact on transmission, you have to ask what the vaccinators even think they’re doing. There’s can’t be any argument; the evidence is so abundant it’s spilled out into major journals. And yet come the Fall, they’ll all have their needles out once again


Charts:






CO-VIDs of the Week:

***** 2min vid
Farber: Reporting 3 Young Deaths In One Week, UK Undertaker Shows Synthetic Material Pulled From Arteries Of Young Man Who "Died Suddenly"
"Obviously, That's What's Killed Him."



[Other] Tweets of the Week



COVID Conspiracy Fare:

Ridley: The case for the lab-leak theory
Why of all the cities in the world did Covid first emerge in Wuhan?

... And then came the most shocking revelation of all. We knew from the start that SARS-CoV-2 is the only SARS-like virus ever found – among hundreds – with a furin-cleavage site in its spike protein: an insertion of 12 letters of genetic code that makes the virus especially infectious, and is therefore the reason we had a pandemic and not just a localised outbreak. But in September 2021 a document was leaked to internet sleuths that showed the Wuhan laboratory was party to plans in 2018 to insert novel furin-cleavage sites into undefined SARS-like viruses in its possession. Yet the institute and its American collaborators had never bothered to tell the world about this plan, and they ignored the furin-cleavage site in their seminal 2020 paper about this virus in the journal Nature.



Back to Non-Pandemic Fare:

GeoPolitical Fare:

Colonel Douglas Macgregor has argued for a peaceful resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Ukraine could disappear from the map unless the conflict with Russia is resolved peacefully, former Trump military adviser Colonel Douglas Macgregor said in an interview with Sky News Australia on Wednesday. When asked what more could be done to help Ukraine in the ongoing military conflict, Macgregor stated that “the longer this lasts, the more people are going to be needlessly slaughtered, the more damage will be done to Ukraine,” adding that it is now “effectively a failed state, it could be erased completely from the map.” Noting that Ukraine’s military has suffered enormous losses during the conflict and that Russian forces were “by no means overstretched or hurting at this point,”Macgregor argued that “we need a ceasefire”and that countries like Australia should be pushing for it since “no one in Washington is going to do it.”

...  The former adviser also commented on the prospects of Russian President Vladimir Putin agreeing to such a ceasefire, noting that he has “never been interested in all of Ukraine,” and that the territory currently under Russia’s control is the “traditional Russian-speaking area.”



“The West, which once proclaimed the principles of democracy such as freedom of speech, pluralism and respect for other opinions, is now degenerating into the exact opposite – totalitarianism. These include censorship, media closures and arbitrary treatment of journalists and public figures. 

“This prohibition practice extends not only to the information space, but also to politics, culture, education, art – to all areas of public life in western countries. And this model – the model of totalitarian liberalism, including the infamous cancel culture, the ubiquitous prohibitions – they want to impose on the whole world. 

“But the truth and the reality is that people in most countries do not want such a life and such a future.  . . . Today we hear that they want to defeat us on the battlefield. What can I say? Let them try.  . . . They should understand that they have already lost with the beginning of our military operation, because its beginning also means the beginning of the fundamental collapse of the American-style world order.”



... They still didn't recognize that while Russia was playing relatively nice, they had the chance to arrange their defeat with proper decorum and diplomatic niceties, and, maybe, even benefit from it in the long run. But that is not how Western "elites" are brought up and "educated" and they double down, violating the main principle of escaping from the deep hole--you must stop digging to have a chance. But not these guys. 


Nato’s new posture towards Beijing brings into question its whole claim to be a ‘defensive’ alliance

.................. Ultimately, Nato’s courting of Russia’s neighbours led to attacks by Moscow first on Georgia and then on Ukraine, conveniently bolstering the “Russian threat” narrative. Might the intention behind similar advances to the “Asia-Pacific Four” be to provoke Beijing into a more aggressive military stance in its own region, in order to justify Nato expanding far beyond the North Atlantic, claiming the entire globe as its backyard? 

There are already clear signs of that. In May, US President Joe Biden vowed that the US – and by implication Nato – would come to Taiwan’s aid militarily if it were attacked. Beijing regards Taiwan, some 200 kilometres off its coast, as Chinese territory. 

Similarly, British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss called last week for Nato countries to ship advanced weapons to Taiwan, in the same way Nato has been arming Ukraine, to ensure the island has “the defence capability it needs”.

This echoes Nato’s narrative about its goals in Ukraine: that it is pumping weapons into Ukraine to “defend” the rest of Europe. Now, Nato is casting itself as the guardian of the Asia-Pacific region too.

‘Economic coercion’
But in truth, this is not just about competing military threats. There is an additional layer of western self-interest, concealed behind claims of a “defensive” alliance. ......



Orwellian Fare:

“But I don’t want to go among mad people,” Alice remarked.
“Oh, you can’t help that,” said the Cat: “we’re all mad here. I’m mad. You’re mad.”
“How do you know I’m mad?” said Alice.
“You must be,” said the Cat, “or you wouldn’t have come here.”
– Lewis Carroll’s “Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland”
We are living in a world where the degree of disinformation and outright lying has reached such a state of affairs that, possibly for the first time ever, we see the majority of the western world starting to question their own and surrounding level of sanity. The increasing frenzied distrust in everything “authoritative” mixed with the desperate incredulity that “everybody couldn’t possibly be in on it!” is slowly rocking many back and forth into a tighter and tighter straight jacket. “Question everything” has become the new motto, but are we capable of answering those questions?

Presently the answer is a resounding no. ...

As Goebbels infamously stated,
“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State [under fascism].”
And here we find ourselves today, at the brink of fascism. However, we have to first agree to forfeit our civil rights as a collective before fascism can completely dominate. That is, the big lie can only succeed if the majority fails to call it out, for if the majority were to recognise it for what it is, it would truly hold no power. ....

... William Sargant was a British psychiatrist and, one could say, effectively the Father of “mind control” in the West, with connections to British Intelligence and the Tavistock Institute, which would influence the CIA and American military via the program MK Ultra. Sargant was also an advisor for Ewen Cameron’s LSD “blank slate” work at McGill University, funded by the CIA.

... Sargant goes on to state in his book:
“It is not surprising that the ordinary person, in general, is much more easily indoctrinated than the abnormal…A person is considered ‘ordinary’ or ‘normal’ by the community simply because he accepts most of its social standards and behavioural patterns; which means, in fact, that he is susceptible to suggestion and has been persuaded to go with the majority on most ordinary or extraordinary occasions.”

Neo-Feudalism: Klaus Schwab, the WEF, and The Great Reset



CaitOz Fare:

Humanity Is Learning That The Rules Are All Made Up And Can Be Re-Written At Any Time

The human species is at an adapt-or-perish juncture in its history on this planet; we will either drastically change the way we operate, or we will wipe ourselves out by nuclear war or environmental cataclysm. Because we’ve been brought to this point by our unhealthy relationship with mental narrative, the adaptation we’re being challenged to make would be a collective movement into a healthy relationship with mental narrative.

We’re where we’re at because powerful people have been able to manipulate us into believing mental stories about reality which aren’t based in fact. History is one long unbroken tale of large groups of humans being manipulated by much smaller groups of humans in ways which benefit the smaller groups, and that tale continues to this day. Propaganda and other forms of narrative control are used to manufacture consent for status quo models of governance, economic and monetary systems, and foreign policy which benefit an elite few at the expense of the general population.

And what’s interesting is that underneath all the babbling propaganda stories about what’s happening in our world, humanity is indeed showing signs that we are collectively slipping out of our old relationship with mental narrative. It’s happening in the usual sloppy, awkward, two-steps-forward-one-step-back shamble which has always marked all of human progress, but it’s happening.

It’s happening in the way people are moving away from religion as we collectively discover that those ancient narratives which so long transfixed our ancestors are not necessary or helpful for finding meaning, morality and fulfillment in our lives, and as we collectively notice that doctrines about eternal reward for obedience and eternal damnation for disobedience sound made-up. ...

We’re going to have to learn that we’ve been lied to since we were children about how the world works, how our government works, how our political and economic systems work. We’re going to have to learn that the very building blocks of our culture are mostly just made-up stories from people who want to control us and from long-dead people who wanted to control our ancestors. We’re going to have to learn that all the metrics by which we measure our personal success and failure and the frameworks we use to decide what our lives are about are fictions implanted in our minds by the powerful. We’re going to have to learn that even our most absolutely fundamental ideas about who and what we are have been built on faulty assumptions. ....



..... If you’ve ever wondered why so much energy goes into keeping everyone propagandized in our society, this is why. If you’ve ever wondered why our rulers work so hard to keep us divided against each other, this is why. If you’ve ever wondered why we’re always being instructed to take our grievances to the voting booth even though we learn in election after election that it never changes the things that most desperately need to change, this is why.

Our entire civilization is structured around preventing scenes like the one we’re seeing in Sri Lanka today. Our education systems, our political systems, our media, our online information. Religions that have been around for thousands of years because the powerful endorsed and promulgated them are full of passages extolling the virtues of obedience, poverty, meekness, and rendering unto Caesar what is Caesar’s. From the moment we are born our heads are filled with stories about why it’s good and right to consent to the status quo and why it would be wrong to take back what has been stolen from us by a predatory ruling class.

.... Things will keep getting worse until we find a way to cut through the propaganda brain fog and rise like lions.


UK To Swap Out Top Sociopath For A Different Sociopath: Notes From The Edge Of The Narrative Matrix


Other Quotes of the Week:

Kunstler: It looks like someone has called room service in a certain Swiss Fortress of Solitude and ordered der Schwabenklaus’s ass to be handed to him on a platter with a side of sauerkraut. The assisted suicide of Western Civ, Euro division, has been interrupted by peasant uprisings, first in the Netherlands, now spreading to Germany, Italy, and Poland. The farmers are on the march. They are coming for you, Klaus, and your World Economic Forum’s legion of implanted government goblins. The governments of virtually all the nations of Western Civ have become enemies of their people. It’s been obvious in the USA for quite some time, but our preposterous attempt to turn Ukraine into a forward NATO missile base next door to Russia finally revealed the villainous rot in Euroland, too ...


Biden: "End of Quote. Repeat the Line."



Long Reads / Big Thoughts:

Rigger: The Leftwaffe and the Moral Blitzkrieg

... And this is one of the milder examples of appallingly inhumane things that were written. No doubt the author of this tweet felt he was morally justified in promoting this inhumanity. I’m certain he didn’t feel like a “bad person” for making this statement, or thinking like this. For all I know, he probably still doesn’t.

One of the great mantras employed during the pantodemic was “follow the science”. As we all know, in reality we did anything but that. What we actually did was “follow the morals”. A kind of bastardized version of science was trotted out in order to get us to follow a bastardized set of morals.

Protect Granny. We’re all in this together. Look him in the eyes. No one is safe until we’re all safe. Wear a mask and protect others . . .

The Science™ was used as a weapon to enforce a particular set of moral imperatives. You were one of the “good” guys if you did everything you were told - and most definitely one of the “bad” guys if you did not, or merely questioned things.

A lot of people get all hot and bothered when any similarity between the events leading up to the Holocaust and the covid measures is drawn. It’s really offensive, they say. How can you compare the covid measures with the horror of the Holocaust? Indeed, one cannot - but that’s not the comparison being made. The comparison is that exactly the same kinds of coercive propaganda techniques were employed. We’re not comparing outcomes when mentioning the Holocaust - we’re comparing techniques of manipulation.

And let’s face it, some people were not all that far away from advocating that the unvaxxed be rounded up and shipped off to camps to protect the ‘good’ and the Goo’ed. Is it really too much of a stretch to draw a parallel with the demonization of the Jews and other groups in Nazi Germany? I don’t think so.

.... This moral enforcement, this enforcement of public compliance, can be seen everywhere these days. Twenty years ago you wouldn’t have been subjected to any kind of online hate campaign, or the threat of cancellation, if you’d made the wholly unremarkable (and correct) statement that only women can give birth.

All of a sudden, it seems, today you’re considered to be some sort of pond life, reprehensible scum, if you make this kind of statement. This othering, this demonization, is what makes the hate possible.

The science certainly hasn’t changed. We weren’t actually getting it wrong for the last several thousand years and now, as a result of some stupendous new discovery over the last couple of decades, we know better.

But people are being bullied into the position that men can give birth - and it’s something they know to be incorrect. Recall that even a Supreme Court Judge cannot tell you what a woman is - or rather, she declined to express what she knows, and what everyone else knows, out of fear.

Men cannot give birth. People who are women and who feel themselves to be men can certainly give birth. They are not men except in their heads - they are dream men. And it’s ok to want to live your dreams, fair play to you, but don’t expect me to deny reality, however deep your desire or strong your feeling to be something you clearly are not. I’ll meet you half way and treat you as if you were a man, I’ll be perfectly civil and warm towards you, and wish you no ill will - but I will never accept that you ARE a man. I’m sorry - that’s just the way it is.

It’s this imposition of a certain morality, this attempt to force a particular viewpoint that, if anything, is characteristic of what we might term the ‘woke’ - or what I’d like to call the Leftwaffe. It’s certainly closer to actual Nazism than anything they accuse their opponents of.

.... It’s this imposition of a certain morality, this attempt to force a particular viewpoint that, if anything, is characteristic of what we might term the ‘woke’ - or what I’d like to call the Leftwaffe. It’s certainly closer to actual Nazism than anything they accuse their opponents of.


Rigger: Good Vibrations

I feel very sorry for Macy Gray. She tried to defend women and has faced an appalling backlash for doing so. She gave an interview to Piers Morgan - not, perhaps, the wisest thing to do - in which there was an exchange that went like this :

MG : Just because you go and change your parts, that doesn’t make you a woman
PM : You feel that?
MG : I know that for a fact

Macy Gray is 100% correct on this. ....

.................... Such wonderful and inclusive sounding mush that is essentially devoid of any real meaning. What is meant by “interact”? So we have 3 things here sex, gender and gender identity which are related (in some unspecified way) and interact (in some unspecified way) to one another.

Of course it all gets linked into intersectionality and oppression and the rest because that’s how you have to write this shit in order to be seen to be correct and virtuous these days. In their zeal to appear virtuous and compassionate, fearless warriors for social justice and health, they make the following bizarre statement

Consequently, women and girls face greater risks of unintended pregnancies . . .

No shit, Sherlock. Women and girls are the ONLY people who face such risks. .......


[Not] Satirical Fare:





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