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Sunday, December 11, 2022

2022-12-11

 *** denotes well-worth reading in full at source (even if excerpted extensively here)


Economic and Market Fare:

BlackRock: Prepare For Recession "Unlike Any Other"... And What Worked Before "Won't Work Now"

.... "Recession is foretold as central banks race to try to tame inflation. It's the opposite of past recessions," the team wrote In their 2023 Global Outlook (embedded below), which says that the global economy has already exited a four-decade period of stable growth and inflation, and has now entered a period of heightened instability. ...


How Much Is A Recession Priced In?
A cross-asset analysis to find an answer for this important question


The Inflation Trade is Over


.... Ironically, the best performing trades of 2022 are now unwinding into year-end. I am of course referring to the inflation trades led by oil/commodities, and energy sector stocks. 

Inflationists have informed us all year that inflation is NOT transitory. The Fed believed them. Now the inflation trade is collapsing like a cheap tent. To be followed by CPI on a lagged basis.

At minimum, we need to more accurately define the term "transitory" - Is it days or weeks? Because it's clear this society has not even the slightest ability to differentiate between long-term secular inflation and cyclical end of cycle inflation.

Soon, even the most dim witted observer will realize this is not 1980. Too late.
 
 
Tchir: The Rise And Fall Of Inflation Risk Factors

This week we will all focus on CPI on Tuesday and the Fed on Wednesday. What Chair Powell says and does on Wednesday will reverberate through the markets. For the record, I expect 50 bps and he will keep a rate hike on the table for the February 1 st announcement.

Rather than attempting to estimate this week’s CPI data (which will be important), today’s report will focus on what will drive inflation (and the economy/markets) after the Fed decision.

We have seven weeks between this FOMC decision and the next one. Seven weeks feels like  a lifetime in a market that is prone to large daily and weekly swings. Even the views on the economy are shifting rapidly as more economists seem to be heading in our direction, which is that the recession will start sooner (Q1) and be deeper than most people previously thought.

.... In theory this is what many do, but we hope that today’s analysis makes it clear how these factors have been behaving (and how they will behave). That will go a long way in explaining why our current outlook is more pessimistic and is strongly in the camp that “the Fed has gone too far already.”


 
In stark contrast to last year, China is now having a positive impact on global inflation dynamics. Weak domestic demand, price declines in raw materials and the return to more normal supply- and logistics conditions, have resulted in China exporting deflation once again. This was evident in the country's large trade surpluses, which were updated on Wednesday, and in this morning’s producer and consumer price inflation data. 
 
Factory-gate prices fell 1.3% year-over-year in November, while consumer inflation eased to 1.6%. Core inflation remained unchanged at 0.6% year-over-year. Deflation, rather than inflation, is currently the main risk faced by China. ....
 
 


 
 
"What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?"
The old economic world may be leaving us, but its pathologies stubbornly remain.


 
Today, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) released the results of its fall 2022 review of the Domestic Stability Buffer (DSB) and announced that the DSB level will be set at 3% as of February 1, 2023. In addition, OSFI has increased the DSB’s range from 0 to 4%, instead of the previous 0 to 2.5%.

Launched in 2018, the DSB applies to Canada’s largest banks, known as Domestic Systemically Important Banks or D-SIBs. The DSB is part of a comprehensive supervisory framework and capital regime that encourages D-SIBs to build capital resilience to vulnerabilities, thereby reinforcing the stability of Canada’s financial system and contributing to public confidence in it.

The new level stems from OSFI’s review of the DSB’s design and range in fall 2022, which was conducted to ensure that DSB continues to work as intended and remains an effective tool to promote systemic stability. It also reflects OSFI’s assessment that systemic vulnerabilities remain elevated – with some, namely Canadian household indebtedness and asset imbalances, edging upwards – as well as the results of recent stress tests.  Globally, persistent inflation and rising interest rates, along with geopolitical tensions, have exacerbated vulnerabilities and led to increased economic uncertainty. ....



Quotes of the Week:

 
Charts: 
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Vid of the Week:
 
 

 
 

Sci Fare:
 
World’s Oldest DNA Discovered, Revealing Ancient Arctic Forest Full of Mastodons
Two-million-year-old DNA, the world's oldest, reveals that mastodons once roamed forests in Greenland’s far northern reaches




Contrarian Perspectives

Extra [i.e. Controversial] Fare:

*** denotes well-worth reading in full at source (even if excerpted extensively here)


Krishnamurti: “It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society.”


Regular [Everyday Life] Fare:
 





Endemic Fare:

I've continued to come across too much excellent COVID-related content (with contrarian evidence-based points-of-view!!) to link to it all
Read [almost?] everything by eugyppius; el gato malo; Mathew Crawford; Steve Kirsch; Jessica Rose!
Chudov, Lyons-Weiler, Toby Rogers are also go-to mainstays; a list to which I have added Andreas Oehler, Joey Smalley (aka Metatron) and, Julius Ruechel; Denninger worth staying on top of too for his insights, and especially his colorful language; and Norman Fenton; Marc Girardot; plus Walter Chesnut (on twitter); later additions: Sheldon Yakiwchuk & Charles Rixey & Aaron Kheriarty; and newest additions Meryl Nass and the awesome Radagast; and Spartacus is on substack now!!; I will of course continue to post links to key Peter McCullough material, and Geert Vanden Bossche, and Robert Malone, and Martin Kulldorff, and Jay Bhattacharya, and Sucharit Bhakdi, and Pierre Kory, and Harvey Risch, and Michael Yeadon, and John Ioannidis, and Paul Marik, and Tess Lawrie, and Dolores Cahill, and [local prof] Byram Bridle, and Ryan Cole, and... of course Heather Heying and Charles Eisenstein often bring their insight and wisdom to the topic as well... and if Heying's substack isn't enough, she joins her husband Bret Weinstein at their DarkHorse podcast ....
but, in any case, check out those sources directly as I will my linking to material by those mainstays mentioned above will be reduced to key excerpts and/or essential posts



If you don't study history and learn from it, you are doomed to make the same mistakes.
 
 
We Now Have A Clear Estimate Of The Rate Of Vaccine Injuries
A Recent Survey Confirms What Many Others Have Found and That The Public Is Starting To Turn On The Vaccine Program
 
Throughout my entire life, I’ve always found that trying to argue against Big Business is like fighting with one or both hands tied behind your back because large industries can always co-opt and buy out every authoritative source on the subject and then censor any inconvenient facts that still persist. This is an immensely challenging situation to be in, and it takes an immense amount of internal strength to not succumb to those pressures. In every era, it is extremely frequent for activists to burn out or become black-pilled (cynical of everything), and throughout the pandemic, I have seen many signs of this occurring within the medical freedom movement.

At the same time, however, even if it takes decades, the truth always finds a way to get through. I have seen more issues than I can count that went from “misinformation” that received harsh condemnation to becoming a societal dogma. Previously, I detailed one of the most well-known examples, where Ignaz Semmelweis deduced that physicians failing to wash their hands after dissecting corpses was leading to fatal blood infections in countless mothers for whom the doctors delivered their babies. Semmelweis was met with hostility for these views and was eventually sent to an asylum where he was beaten and died not long after. Soon after he died, the optical microscope made it possible to see bacteria and Semmelweis’s ideas became a foundation of all medical practices. .....

I have directly witnessed vaccination injuries occur around me since childhood, I have devoted more time than I can count to understanding this issue and trying to understand where I fit within this tragic mythology that has ensnared our species. From this introspection, I eventually came to the conclusion the culture was not yet ready to accept the harms of vaccination and it was better for me to devote myself to focus on a different critical area I believed I was better equipped to address.

Although this was (and still is) my plan, due to how egregious the COVID-19 vaccination campaign was, I realized that I needed to do something, and put my life on hold so I could spend the first two years of the pandemic working behind the scenes as one of many helping create the infrastructure needed to prevent this catastrophe. I then unexpectedly ended up with this blog and realized I had the opportunity to do a lot more without jeopardizing my primary mission. So as best as I can, without burning myself out too much, I’ve tried to make the best use I can of the opportunity I was given and the responsibility to uphold it with integrity. ....



Tweets & Quotes of the Week:



CO-VIDs of the Week:

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Pushback Fare:
 

What did the parents do that was so wrong? They requested that blood used in the transfusion during a surgery for their baby come from donors that are guaranteed to not have recently received a COVID-19 ‘vaccine’. In fact, they apparently had dozens of potential donors pre-arranged to volunteer for this.

This not about biases against anyone. It is about two parents who have simply followed the science. They are aware of the now-robust and growing literature showing that COVID-19 mRNA ‘vaccines’ and/or their components and/or derivatives can be detected in the blood, sometimes at alarmingly high concentrations, for up to at least four months post-inoculation in some people. And these are highly bioactive molecules with the potential to cause harm via a variety of mechanisms of action. These parents simply want the best possible medical product available to give their sick baby its best fighting chance.

These parents believe in the precautionary principle, something that to many physicians, as well as blood providers the world over have clearly abandoned. ....
 
 
Tessa: No No, This Is Not Fascism
...and slavery is freedom.




Back to Non-Pandemic Fare:

War Fare:
 
 
 
 
 
 




Orwellian Fare:
 
 
 



***** CaitOz Fare ***** :
 

..... Without mass-scale indoctrination into power-serving narratives about nation, government and world, the power structures which rule over us would immediately collapse. People would cease voluntarily behaving in ways that benefit those power structures, cease acknowledging their government as a legitimate authority, cease pretending elections are real procedures for determining their government’s actions, cease believing they’re receiving truthful information from the mass indoctrination media, and use the power of their numbers to organize in ways which benefit the many rather than an elite few. ....

As Noam Chomsky put it, “Propaganda is to a democracy what the bludgeon is to a totalitarian state.” In a totalitarian state people are physically abused into conformity and obedience; in a “democracy” people are psychologically abused into conformity and obedience. ....
 
It’s hard to even imagine how much freer our mental lives would be if we weren’t being continuously herded into artificial confines for thinking about the world. For thinking about what our real problems are. About what solutions to those problems are possible. About the kind of world we could have if we really put our minds to it. About the vast, vast spectrum of political opinion that exists outside the tiny authorized bandwidth of the mainstream Overton window. ...

It’s actually pathetic how constricted and confined minds are inside the indoctrinated mainstream worldview. Have you ever marvelled at how some of the most intelligent people you know can buy into the most obvious articles of propaganda? This is because intelligence by itself is not enough to protect someone from indoctrination; snapping out of the narrative matrix takes wisdom, and a fair amount of dumb luck. But think about how much brain power would be freed up if intelligent minds weren’t being corralled into the tight confines of official perspectives. How much more our species could achieve if brilliant minds had real freedom and not just the illusion of it. ....



Other Quotes of the Week:
 
Lavrov: Russia has always said that if someone is interested in negotiating a solution, we are ready to listen. In March Ukraine was not allowed to do this, because the war had not yet brought enough wealth to those who are supervising and directing it – primarily US & UK.
 
 
Sagan: One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth.  It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken.
 
 
Carlos: My best friend predicts that after widespread disillusionment with living under a human gerontocracy, Americans will demand an entirely new leadership class, thus opening up a spot in the not too distant future for a canine president, perhaps to be named President Doggington Bark. The ideal candidate is likely to be either a Lab or a Golden Retriever.


Steve Martin pretending to give a eulogy for Martin Short on SNL:
“I’ll never forget Martin’s last words: ‘Tesla autopilot engage.’”




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